275
FXUS63 KGLD 071101
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
401 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND NORTHWEST AT
10-15 MPH.
- WARM AND DRY LATE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE SNOW THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER
HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS THE UPPER TROUGH HAS BEEN SPLITTING.
MEANWHILE, HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
NEAR THE SURFACE. WITH THE HIGH CENTER BEING SOMEWHAT SMALL, A
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD LINGER AND KEEP WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY, THE SPLIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HAVE AN
UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH WAVE
CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. WITH THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE
AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE, TOMORROW SHOULD BE A BIT MILD WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S UNDERNEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS,
BUT NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
BROADENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO KEEP WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT AN ENFORCING WAVE IN THE TROUGH MIGHT
DROP THE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA A LITTLE SOUTH, WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH FOR LOCALES NEAR THE TRI-
STATE BORDER. SATURDAY NIGHT, THE MILD CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR 30 UNDERNEATH CLEAR
SKIES AND WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH.
SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BUT ALMOST ZONAL. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM MORE INTO
THE 70S. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HELP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LOWER INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN UNLIKELY THOUGH AS BROAD LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH PLAINS,
LEADING TO WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH. NOT MUCH IS FORECAST TO CHANGE
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE. WITH THIS, WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S EVEN POSSIBLY LOW 80S ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY.
DOWNSLOPING WARMTH OFF OF THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO BE PRESENT
WHICH IS LEADING TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE BLACK HILLS IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO A DEVELOPING 850MB JET
WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE THE WINDS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE JET AND WHERE EXACTLY IT LINES UP
BUT ELEVATED TO PERHAPS LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HUMIDITY.
SHOULD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DEVELOP WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR
TO BE MARGINAL WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. CONFIDENCE IN LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS AROUND 30-40% WITH THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING AROUND 10%.
TUESDAY, THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS THE LOW MENTIONED
ABOVE MOVES OFF TO THE WEST AND SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA.
SPREAD STILL REMAINS ON WHEN THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WHICH WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY; A QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS IN
THE 70S. CONFIDENCE IN A QUICKER FRONT PROGRESSION IS CURRENTLY
AROUND 40%. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE SLIM CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE QUICKER FRONTAL
SOLUTION WOULD OCCUR THEN THEN THIS THREAT WOULD LOWER AS THE
FRONT WILL SHUNT ANY MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA.
IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BREEZY TO
GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
CURRENTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE IN QUESTION AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT IF HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
REACH THE LOW 50S THEN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MAY OCCUR. GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE
COOLER AIR MASS SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
SO THERE IS SOME QUESTION TO WHETHER OR NOT THESE CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR IF CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE TOO WARM.
LATE WEEK FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE EVEN MORE
SO. STRONG SIGNAL FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FAVORING WARM AND BREEZY
DOWNSLOPING OCCURRING FOR THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO LOW AS THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY FAVORS THE
HIGHER END OF THE FORECAST SPECTRUM AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S OCCUR. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ALREADY
FORECAST IN THE MID TEENS AND IF PATTERN RECOGNITION IS CORRECT
THEN HUMIDITY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WOULD BE IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRENGTHENING 700MB JET
WHICH SHOULD BE EASILY TAPPED INTO WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM AROUND 5000'-7500' AGL. CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OCCURRING THURSDAY ARE AROUND 60-70% AND THE
NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING SITS AROUND 30-35%. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN FORECAST FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT IF
IT WERE TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKER COULD CHANGE THE FORECAST BUT
QUITE A VARIATION WITH GUIDANCE REMAINS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. SPOTTY HIGH
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BECOMING CLEAR.
CURRENT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE
BREEZY AROUND 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED; SPORADIC GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR EACH TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...TRIGG
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