117
FXUS63 KGLD 071658
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
958 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND NORTHWEST AT
10-15 MPH.
- WARM AND DRY LATE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE SNOW THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NEAR THE TRI-STATE
BORDER HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS THE UPPER TROUGH HAS BEEN
SPLITTING. MEANWHILE, HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA NEAR THE SURFACE. WITH THE HIGH CENTER BEING
SOMEWHAT SMALL, A PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD LINGER AND KEEP WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY, THE SPLIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HAVE
AN UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH
WAVE CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. WITH THE AREA ON
THE BACKSIDE AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE, TOMORROW SHOULD BE A BIT
MILD WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S UNDERNEATH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS, BUT NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A BROADENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO
KEEP WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT AN
ENFORCING WAVE IN THE TROUGH MIGHT DROP THE LOW PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA A LITTLE SOUTH, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 25-35 MPH FOR LOCALES NEAR THE TRI- STATE BORDER.
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE MILD CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR 30 UNDERNEATH CLEAR
SKIES AND WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH.
SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT FROM
THE NORTHWEST, BUT ALMOST ZONAL. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM MORE INTO THE 70S. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
HELP RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN
UNLIKELY THOUGH AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH PLAINS, LEADING TO WINDS AROUND 10-15
MPH. NOT MUCH IS FORECAST TO CHANGE GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE. WITH THIS, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S EVEN POSSIBLY LOW 80S ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY.
DOWNSLOPING WARMTH OFF OF THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO BE PRESENT
WHICH IS LEADING TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES. A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE BLACK HILLS IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO A DEVELOPING
850MB JET WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE THE WINDS. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE JET AND WHERE EXACTLY
IT LINES UP BUT ELEVATED TO PERHAPS LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS FOR HUMIDITY. SHOULD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DEVELOP WINDS
AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.
CONFIDENCE IN LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS AROUND 30-40% WITH
THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING AROUND 10%.
TUESDAY, THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS THE LOW
MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES OFF TO THE WEST AND SENDS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. SPREAD STILL REMAINS ON WHEN THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY; A QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD LEAD
TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE 70S. CONFIDENCE IN A QUICKER
FRONT PROGRESSION IS CURRENTLY AROUND 40%. A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE SLIM
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF
THE QUICKER FRONTAL SOLUTION WOULD OCCUR THEN THEN THIS THREAT
WOULD LOWER AS THE FRONT WILL SHUNT ANY MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA.
IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BREEZY
TO GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH WIND GUSTS OF
35-45 MPH CURRENTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE IN
QUESTION AS THE AREA REMAINS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT IF
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOW 50S THEN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MAY OCCUR.
GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE COOLER AIR MASS SHOULD STICK
AROUND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SO THERE IS SOME QUESTION TO
WHETHER OR NOT THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IF CURRENT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE TOO WARM.
LATE WEEK FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE EVEN
MORE SO. STRONG SIGNAL FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AS
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FAVORING WARM AND BREEZY
DOWNSLOPING OCCURRING FOR THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO LOW AS THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY FAVORS THE
HIGHER END OF THE FORECAST SPECTRUM AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S OCCUR. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ALREADY
FORECAST IN THE MID TEENS AND IF PATTERN RECOGNITION IS CORRECT
THEN HUMIDITY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WOULD BE IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRENGTHENING 700MB JET
WHICH SHOULD BE EASILY TAPPED INTO WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM AROUND 5000'-7500' AGL. CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OCCURRING THURSDAY ARE AROUND 60-70% AND THE NEED
FOR A RED FLAG WARNING SITS AROUND 30-35%. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
AGAIN FORECAST FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT IF IT WERE TO MOVE
THROUGH QUICKER COULD CHANGE THE FORECAST BUT QUITE A VARIATION
WITH GUIDANCE REMAINS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 955 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AT BOTH TERMINALS. WNW TO NW WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK TO
THE W AND SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SPORADIC GUSTS TO 18-20
KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ~10 KNOT WSW TO SW
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...VINCENT
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