477
FXUS63 KGLD 072007
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
107 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND NORTHWEST AT
10-15 MPH.
- WARM AND DRY LATE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE SNOW THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NEAR THE TRI-STATE
BORDER HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS THE UPPER TROUGH HAS BEEN
SPLITTING. MEANWHILE, HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA NEAR THE SURFACE. WITH THE HIGH CENTER BEING
SOMEWHAT SMALL, A PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD LINGER AND KEEP WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY, THE SPLIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HAVE
AN UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH
WAVE CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. WITH THE AREA ON
THE BACKSIDE AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE, TOMORROW SHOULD BE A BIT
MILD WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S UNDERNEATH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS, BUT NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A BROADENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO
KEEP WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT AN
ENFORCING WAVE IN THE TROUGH MIGHT DROP THE LOW PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA A LITTLE SOUTH, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 25-35 MPH FOR LOCALES NEAR THE TRI- STATE BORDER.
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE MILD CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR 30 UNDERNEATH CLEAR
SKIES AND WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH.
SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT FROM
THE NORTHWEST, BUT ALMOST ZONAL. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM MORE INTO THE 70S. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
HELP RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN
UNLIKELY THOUGH AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH PLAINS, LEADING TO WINDS AROUND 10-15
MPH. NOT MUCH IS FORECAST TO CHANGE GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE. WITH THIS, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
ON TUESDAY, SOUTHWEST CUT OFF LOW WILL BE PICKED UP BY NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE AND EMERGE ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN OPEN
WAVE. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL DELINEATE
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH FROM THE
COOL, STABLE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW ABOUT
A 10-30% CHANCE OF WEAK INSTABILITY (<500 J/KG) SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST AT
50 KTS OR HIGHER, SO ASSUMING THE FRONT IS IN THE AREA AND
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE, MAY SEE A LOW END SEVERE THREAT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LIMITED MAINLY BY THE INSTABILITY AND
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FRONTAL POSITION. WHILE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS, WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO BE LIGHT, ESPECIALLY POST FRONTAL. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BEHIND THE
FRONT. GFS/ECWMF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. POST FRONTAL WINDS TUESDAY
NIGHT MAY GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP MIXING TAPPING INTO A 100KT JET STREAK
OVER THE AREA AT 500 MB. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING GUSTS OF 40-50
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THOSE WINDS COUPLED WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW BY SATURDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED, BUT WILL SEE A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK
EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MAIN CONCERN THESE DAYS
WILL BE FIRE WEATHER, AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE TEENS FOR AT LEAST A PART OF THE AREA EACH DAY.
THURSDAY APPEARS TO HAVE THE MOST POTENTIAL WITH A WESTERLY
SURFACE WIND TANKING DEW POINTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT MORE
MARGINAL, AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA,
BUT MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A PART OF IT WITH A MODEST INCREASE
IN WINDS ALOFT. DEW POINTS WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH WESTERN AREAS MAY STILL BE DRY,
ULTIMATELY DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING. WINDS ALOFT ARE STILL
STRONGER TO THE NORTH, SO NOT SURE IT CAN ALL COME TOGETHER FOR
A CRITICAL FIRE THREAT. SATURDAY MAY HAVE THE LEAST POTENTIAL,
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS LINGERING BUT MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
ALOFT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE PERIOD SHOW MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY (70S); FALLING TO NEAR NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT (50S); QUICKLY RECOVERING TO ABOVE
NORMAL ON THURSDAY (70S, PERHAPS A FEW 80S); THEN COOLING IN
EASTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY WITH THE SECOND FRONT INTO THE 60S BUT
REMAINING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL IN WESTERN AREAS (DEPENDING ON
FRONTAL TIMING); THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY (60S).
LOW TEMPERATURES DO NOT HAVE AS DRAMATIC SWINGS AND ARE MAINLY
IN THE 20S AND 30S, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 955 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AT BOTH TERMINALS. WNW TO NW WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK TO
THE W AND SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SPORADIC GUSTS TO 18-20
KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ~10 KNOT WSW TO SW
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...VINCENT
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