203
FXUS63 KGLD 080505
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1005 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT SUNNY SKIES, DRY CONDITIONS AND A DAY-TO-DAY WARMING
TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- WARM AND DRY LATE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 105 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
OVERVIEW: A CUT-OFF LOW IN VICINITY OF BAJA, CA WILL CEMENT A
SPLIT FLOW SYNOPTIC REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ADJOINING HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.. PLACING THE TRI-
STATE AREA IN MODEST CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET (CONFINED ABOVE ~42N) AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET
(CONFINED BELOW ~36N).
A STALE, SUBSIDENT SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL MAINTAIN SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT A
DAY- TO-DAY WARMING TREND ASSOC/W MODEST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DIURNALLY WAXING/WANING LEE
TROUGH IN COLORADO, WITH HIGHS ASCENDING TO THE LOWER 70'S ON
SUNDAY AND UPPER 70'S TO NEAR 80F ON MONDAY. WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY CONDITIONS (10-20%
RH), LIGHT (10-20 MPH) SW TO WSW WINDS ARE THE SOLE FACTOR
LIMITING/PRECLUDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
ON TUESDAY, SOUTHWEST CUT OFF LOW WILL BE PICKED UP BY NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE AND EMERGE ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN OPEN
WAVE. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL DELINEATE
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH FROM THE
COOL, STABLE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW ABOUT
A 10-30% CHANCE OF WEAK INSTABILITY (<500 J/KG) SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST AT
50 KTS OR HIGHER, SO ASSUMING THE FRONT IS IN THE AREA AND
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE, MAY SEE A LOW END SEVERE THREAT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LIMITED MAINLY BY THE INSTABILITY AND
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FRONTAL POSITION. WHILE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS, WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO BE LIGHT, ESPECIALLY POST FRONTAL. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BEHIND THE
FRONT. GFS/ECWMF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. POST FRONTAL WINDS TUESDAY
NIGHT MAY GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP MIXING TAPPING INTO A 100KT JET STREAK
OVER THE AREA AT 500 MB. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING GUSTS OF 40-50
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THOSE WINDS COUPLED WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW BY SATURDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED, BUT WILL SEE A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK
EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MAIN CONCERN THESE DAYS
WILL BE FIRE WEATHER, AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE TEENS FOR AT LEAST A PART OF THE AREA EACH DAY.
THURSDAY APPEARS TO HAVE THE MOST POTENTIAL WITH A WESTERLY
SURFACE WIND TANKING DEW POINTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT MORE
MARGINAL, AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA,
BUT MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A PART OF IT WITH A MODEST INCREASE
IN WINDS ALOFT. DEW POINTS WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH WESTERN AREAS MAY STILL BE DRY,
ULTIMATELY DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING. WINDS ALOFT ARE STILL
STRONGER TO THE NORTH, SO NOT SURE IT CAN ALL COME TOGETHER FOR
A CRITICAL FIRE THREAT. SATURDAY MAY HAVE THE LEAST POTENTIAL,
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS LINGERING BUT MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
ALOFT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE PERIOD SHOW MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY (70S); FALLING TO NEAR NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT (50S); QUICKLY RECOVERING TO ABOVE
NORMAL ON THURSDAY (70S, PERHAPS A FEW 80S); THEN COOLING IN
EASTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY WITH THE SECOND FRONT INTO THE 60S BUT
REMAINING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL IN WESTERN AREAS (DEPENDING ON
FRONTAL TIMING); THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY (60S).
LOW TEMPERATURES DO NOT HAVE AS DRAMATIC SWINGS AND ARE MAINLY
IN THE 20S AND 30S, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1004 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITE WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS AROUND 400-500FT MAY OCCASIONALLY
REACH 35-40 KTS WITH SOME BRIEF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH
11Z. OTHERWISE, WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK
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