414
FXUS63 KGLD 080752
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1252 AM MST SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT SUNNY SKIES, DRY CONDITIONS AND A DAY-TO-DAY WARMING
TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- WARM AND DRY LATE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 105 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
OVERVIEW: A CUT-OFF LOW IN VICINITY OF BAJA, CA WILL CEMENT A
SPLIT FLOW SYNOPTIC REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ADJOINING HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.. PLACING THE TRI-
STATE AREA IN MODEST CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET (CONFINED ABOVE ~42N) AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET
(CONFINED BELOW ~36N).
A STALE, SUBSIDENT SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL MAINTAIN SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT A
DAY- TO-DAY WARMING TREND ASSOC/W MODEST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DIURNALLY WAXING/WANING LEE
TROUGH IN COLORADO, WITH HIGHS ASCENDING TO THE LOWER 70'S ON
SUNDAY AND UPPER 70'S TO NEAR 80F ON MONDAY. WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY CONDITIONS (10-20%
RH), LIGHT (10-20 MPH) SW TO WSW WINDS ARE THE SOLE FACTOR
LIMITING/PRECLUDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 AM MST SUN MAR 8 2026
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO START WITH THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A COLDER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE
AREA AND HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER IN THE 40S OR 50S. WITH A
STRONG PRESSURE AND HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE AREA, WINDS REMAIN
FORECAST TO BE A BIT WINDY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. WINDS AT AND ABOVE 700MB ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 50 KTS,
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR STRONGER GUSTS. BUT SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND THE ECWMF-AI IS FORECASTING THAT THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE
THROUGH FASTER WHICH MAY WEAKEN THE GRADIENTS A BIT OR HELP A
BROADER 850MB LOW MOVE IN AND WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. WITH
THIS, AM CURRENTLY THINKING WIND GUSTS WILL STAY BELOW HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA. THE ISSUE HOWEVER IS THAT THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE (40-60%) THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ACHIEVED. WITH WIND ALREADY FORECAST TO GUST INTO THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE, THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
CURRENTLY IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE HIGH TEENS OR
TWENTIES, DRIVEN IN LARGE PART TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
THE COLDER AIR MASS. SHOULD THE SYSTEM PUSH THROUGH FASTER OR
SHIFT THE COLD AIR MASS, WE MAY NOT GET AS COOL AND BE ABLE TO
REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND HAS THE AREA FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITHIN THAT FLOW, A FEW TROUGHS ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH, THOUGH WHAT DAY AND HOW DEEP VARY BY GUIDANCE
MEMBER. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF WE ARE
UNABLE TO GET ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY AS THE ADDITIONAL
SYSTEMS WOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE ARE
FORECAST TO BE MORE IN THE 50S AND 60S IN THE WAKE OF A SYSTEM, AND
70S BEFORE OR AS THE SYSTEMS PUSH THROUGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN LOW AS MOST GUIDANCE AGREES ON DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE
OVER THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1004 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITE WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS AROUND 400-500FT MAY OCCASIONALLY
REACH 35-40 KTS WITH SOME BRIEF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH
11Z. OTHERWISE, WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
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