376
FXUS63 KGLD 081057
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
457 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT SUNNY SKIES, DRY CONDITIONS AND A DAY-TO-DAY WARMING
TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
- WARM AND DRY LATE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 103 AM MST SUN MAR 8 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE SOME TROUGHING
MOVING INTO THE AREA AS WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY HELPING KEEP
AIR TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. SOME LOCATIONS PRIMARILY ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE SEEN
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S DUE TO THE LACK OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY; DO THINK THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AND/OR RISE SOME AS THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS REACH
THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A CLASSIC SETUP FOR WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR TODAY DUE TO
THE SYNOPTIC NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES, HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS AGAIN.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, AM ANTICIPATING SPOTTY AND MARGINAL
PERIODS OF TECHNICAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SOME
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH MAY OCCUR WITH MIXING AROUND 4000-5000
FEET AGL. THE FAVORED AREA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF MARGINALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE A 20-25
KNOT 700MB JET NUDGES INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT WITH THIS COMPONENT
THINK THAT IT SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
MONDAY, A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE PRESENT
JUST OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH BASED
ON THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. ALL OF THIS COMBINED ALONG
WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S
CURRENTLY FORECAST. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO LOW HUMIDITY IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
AGAIN LIKE THE PREVIOUS DAYS THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH
MORE THAN VERY MARGINAL WIND WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH CURRENTLY
FORECAST. WITH THAT SAID, SOME LOCALES ACROSS THE AREA MAY SEE
SOME SPORADIC AND LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
BUT CURRENTLY NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS BEING SEEN AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE AREA. GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WITH THE EARLIEST MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AROUND 12Z TO AS LATE AS 21Z. FRONTS TYPICALLY DO TEND TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA QUICKER SO HAVE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DOWN A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 50S.
THE TRICKY PART OF THE SUNDAY FORECAST IS THAT WE GET SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH AS THE SURFACE LOW MENTIONED
ABOVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS OR A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE
OF SUB- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE MAY BE PRESENT. THIS IS ALSO DEPENDENT
ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT HOWEVER. IN THE EVENING HOURS
TUESDAY, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HELPS
SHOVE A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WHICH LOOKS TO BE A
SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INITIALLY BEFORE TURNING
OVER TO SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY IF THE MOISTURE IS PRESENT. GFS
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SEEDER FEEDER POTENTIAL AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY ACCUMULATING
SNOW POTENTIAL. SNOW POTENTIAL IS AROUND 30-40% AND A HALF INCH
OR MORE OF SNOW IS AROUND 15-25%. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
AS WELL WITH THE FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH; IF SNOW DOES
OCCUR IT SHOULD FAVOR A WET SNOW WHICH WILL HELP ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE BLOWING SNOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 AM MST SUN MAR 8 2026
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO START WITH THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A COLDER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE
AREA AND HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER IN THE 40S OR 50S. WITH A
STRONG PRESSURE AND HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE AREA, WINDS REMAIN
FORECAST TO BE A BIT WINDY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. WINDS AT AND ABOVE 700MB ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 50 KTS,
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR STRONGER GUSTS. BUT SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND THE ECWMF-AI IS FORECASTING THAT THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE
THROUGH FASTER WHICH MAY WEAKEN THE GRADIENTS A BIT OR HELP A
BROADER 850MB LOW MOVE IN AND WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. WITH
THIS, AM CURRENTLY THINKING WIND GUSTS WILL STAY BELOW HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA. THE ISSUE HOWEVER IS THAT THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE (40-60%) THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ACHIEVED. WITH WIND ALREADY FORECAST TO GUST INTO THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE, THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
CURRENTLY IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE HIGH TEENS OR
TWENTIES, DRIVEN IN LARGE PART TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
THE COLDER AIR MASS. SHOULD THE SYSTEM PUSH THROUGH FASTER OR
SHIFT THE COLD AIR MASS, WE MAY NOT GET AS COOL AND BE ABLE TO
REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND HAS THE AREA FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITHIN THAT FLOW, A FEW TROUGHS ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH, THOUGH WHAT DAY AND HOW DEEP VARY BY GUIDANCE
MEMBER. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF WE ARE
UNABLE TO GET ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY AS THE ADDITIONAL
SYSTEMS WOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE ARE
FORECAST TO BE MORE IN THE 50S AND 60S IN THE WAKE OF A SYSTEM, AND
70S BEFORE OR AS THE SYSTEMS PUSH THROUGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN LOW AS MOST GUIDANCE AGREES ON DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE
OVER THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 454 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH A PERIOD OF
BREEZIER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
15 KNOTS AND SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. A SUBTLE SHIFT IN
THE WIND TO MORE OF WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION IS FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...TRIGG
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