277
FXUS63 KGLD 081833
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1233 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT SUNNY SKIES, DRY CONDITIONS AND A DAY-TO-DAY WARMING
TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
- WARM AND DRY LATE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 103 AM MST SUN MAR 8 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE SOME TROUGHING
MOVING INTO THE AREA AS WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY HELPING KEEP
AIR TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. SOME LOCATIONS PRIMARILY ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE SEEN
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S DUE TO THE LACK OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY; DO THINK THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AND/OR RISE SOME AS THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS REACH
THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A CLASSIC SETUP FOR WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR TODAY DUE TO
THE SYNOPTIC NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES, HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS AGAIN.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, AM ANTICIPATING SPOTTY AND MARGINAL
PERIODS OF TECHNICAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SOME
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH MAY OCCUR WITH MIXING AROUND 4000-5000
FEET AGL. THE FAVORED AREA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF MARGINALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE A 20-25
KNOT 700MB JET NUDGES INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT WITH THIS COMPONENT
THINK THAT IT SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
MONDAY, A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE PRESENT
JUST OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH BASED
ON THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. ALL OF THIS COMBINED ALONG
WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S
CURRENTLY FORECAST. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO LOW HUMIDITY IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
AGAIN LIKE THE PREVIOUS DAYS THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH
MORE THAN VERY MARGINAL WIND WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH CURRENTLY
FORECAST. WITH THAT SAID, SOME LOCALES ACROSS THE AREA MAY SEE
SOME SPORADIC AND LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
BUT CURRENTLY NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS BEING SEEN AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE AREA. GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WITH THE EARLIEST MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AROUND 12Z TO AS LATE AS 21Z. FRONTS TYPICALLY DO TEND TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA QUICKER SO HAVE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DOWN A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 50S.
THE TRICKY PART OF THE SUNDAY FORECAST IS THAT WE GET SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH AS THE SURFACE LOW MENTIONED
ABOVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS OR A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE
OF SUB- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE MAY BE PRESENT. THIS IS ALSO DEPENDENT
ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT HOWEVER. IN THE EVENING HOURS
TUESDAY, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HELPS
SHOVE A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WHICH LOOKS TO BE A
SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INITIALLY BEFORE TURNING
OVER TO SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY IF THE MOISTURE IS PRESENT. GFS
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SEEDER FEEDER POTENTIAL AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY ACCUMULATING
SNOW POTENTIAL. SNOW POTENTIAL IS AROUND 30-40% AND A HALF INCH
OR MORE OF SNOW IS AROUND 15-25%. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
AS WELL WITH THE FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH; IF SNOW DOES
OCCUR IT SHOULD FAVOR A WET SNOW WHICH WILL HELP ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE BLOWING SNOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO
START THE PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY'S SYSTEM, BUT THEN WARM
TO ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
COOLING AGAIN TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE
ONLY HAZARD CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE TEENS IN
PART OF THE AREA EACH DAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MEETING WIND
CRITERIA APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE ALOFT WITH A JET
STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOW WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH IN AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70 THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPROACHING 10%. ON
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYS, WIND IS MORE MARGINAL AS FAR AS
MEETING CRITICAL CRITERIA OF 25 MPH GUSTS. THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN WIND POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE
POST FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH MORE HUMID AND NOT MEET
CRITERIA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT TODAY. BOTH THE KMCK AND KGLD TERMINALS
COULD SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO ~20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
WINDS FALL TO 5-10 KTS AFTER 00Z. BEGINNING AROUND 07-09Z, WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE
TERMINALS. AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WINDS OVER KGLD ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY
AFTER 16Z WHILE WINDS OVER KMCK MAY NOT SHIFT UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
INSTEAD, KMCK COULD SEE LLWS FROM ~12Z-16Z OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AT 35-40 KTS AT ~200 FT ABOVE THE TERMINAL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KMK
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