383
FXUS63 KGLD 081955
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
155 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT SUNNY SKIES, DRY CONDITIONS AND A DAY-TO-DAY WARMING
TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX TUESDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
- WARM AND DRY LATE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW DUE TO A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SITS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. A LEE
TROUGH IS MATURING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS THE CENTER LOW DEVELOPS
IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. GUIDANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE CAMS, GFS, ECMWF
IS FAVORING THE DEVELOPING LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TO SEE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE TEENS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH, MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF COLORADO BORDER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS.
AS THE LOW/TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA, THE MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE SOME BREEZY WINDS LEADING TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS PRIMARILY IN SOUTHERN YUMA TO NORTHERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
COLORADO. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ONCE THE WINDS
SHIFT WITH THE PASSING TROUGH. DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD WIND REACHING THE 25+ MPH CRITERIA, THE DECISION WAS MADE
TO HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S TOMORROW. WE ARE STILL SEEING A
WESTWARD TREND OF THE 80S OVER THE LAST TWO FORECAST PACKAGES, WHICH
COULD MAKE THE FORECASTED RH EVEN LOWER.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE AREA AS ANOTHER SWEEPS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS FAVORING THE FRONT MOVING IN
AROUND 12Z FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT THERE ARE
STILL A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVORING A LATER ARRIVAL MORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE TWO SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS,
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL TRY TO ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CLOSER TO
TUESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND CONVERGING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA.
THE AREA SHOULD MOSTLY SEE LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS AND A TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SNOW OVER EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND LOCALES NORTH OF I-70 IN
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT (I.E. SLOWER SOLUTION) WE COULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE. IF
THESE WINDS OCCUR DURING THE TRANSITION TO SNOW, WHICH HAS A 30-40%
CHANCE, WE COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE SNOW RATIOS ARE FAVORING MORE OF A WET SNOW
THAN A DRY ONE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE FRONT PUSHES IN BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE
MID 20S TO THE LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO
START THE PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY'S SYSTEM, BUT THEN WARM
TO ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
COOLING AGAIN TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE
ONLY HAZARD CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE TEENS IN
PART OF THE AREA EACH DAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MEETING WIND
CRITERIA APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE ALOFT WITH A JET
STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOW WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH IN AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70 THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPROACHING 10%. ON
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYS, WIND IS MORE MARGINAL AS FAR AS
MEETING CRITICAL CRITERIA OF 25 MPH GUSTS. THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN WIND POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE
POST FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH MORE HUMID AND NOT MEET
CRITERIA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT TODAY. BOTH THE KMCK AND KGLD TERMINALS
COULD SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO ~20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
WINDS FALL TO 5-10 KTS AFTER 00Z. BEGINNING AROUND 07-09Z, WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE
TERMINALS. AS A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WINDS OVER KGLD ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY
AFTER 16Z WHILE WINDS OVER KMCK MAY NOT SHIFT UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
INSTEAD, KMCK COULD SEE LLWS FROM ~12Z-16Z OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AT 35-40 KTS AT ~200 FT ABOVE THE TERMINAL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KMK
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