131
FXUS63 KGLD 091826
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1226 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS WELL DUE TO THE WARM
TEMPERATURES.
- SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
- BRIEF MID WEEK COOL DOWN BEFORE WARM TEMPERATURES AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW DUE TO A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SITS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. A LEE
TROUGH IS MATURING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS THE CENTER LOW DEVELOPS
IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND WILL TREK ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS
EVENING. THERE IS STILL CONCERN FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON LEADING TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ACROSS THE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED UP NICELY SO FAR TODAY WITH SOME NEAR-RECORD HIGHS
REMAINING A POSSIBILITY UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES. MOST OF THE AREA
COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S TODAY WITH THOSE WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER POSSIBLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY.
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA AS ANOTHER SWEEPS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. THE COLDER AIR MASS AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LAG BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS FAVORING THE
FRONT MOVING IN AROUND 12Z FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SO FAR, THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER RED WILLOW COUNTY AND POSSIBLY HITCHCOCK
AND NORTON COUNTIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT (~7 AM TO 11 AM MT/8
AM TO 12 PM CT) AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE
NORTHERLY WINDS. IT'S POSSIBLE IF THE NAM SOLUTION PANS OUT WE
COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE OCCUR AS WELL.
AS THE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS,
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOME 500 MB VORTICITY WILL TRY TO ADVECT
INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AREA SHOULD MOSTLY SEE LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT (I.E. SLOWER SOLUTION) WE COULD
SEE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-70 WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY ~15% THAT WE SEE ANY STORMS IN THE AREA WITH
~20% CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY OCCURRING IN THE AREA
AS MOST CAMS ARE FAVORING AND SOUTHERN MOISTURE TO BE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA OR FURTHER NORTH IN NEBRASKA FOR THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICK THE FRONT PUSHES IN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO THE LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IT SHARPENS UP A BIT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE PATTERN
AMPLIFIES AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EACH OF THOSE DAYS WILL SEE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROP INTO THE TEENS IN A PART OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
MAY BE THE MOST MARGINAL DAY IN TERMS OF REACHING THE 15%
THRESHOLD FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS DUE TO COOLER POST FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES. WIND SPEEDS ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER DO APPEAR
FAVORABLE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH. THURSDAY WILL SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR HUMIDITY
REACHING 15% AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. THERE WILL BE A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA, WITH HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS NORTH OF
THE TROUGH, GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THAT AREA WITH A
PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY. THE QUESTION MAY COME DOWN TO REACHING
15% FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS AS IT DOES TAKE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY
CONFINED TO WESTERN AREAS, MAINLY COLORADO, WITH A SHALLOW COLD
FRONT RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FURTHER EAST. WINDS
SPEEDS SOMEWHAT MORE MARGINAL BUT MAY SEE SOME SPORADIC GUSTS
TO 25 MPH OR HIGHER IN COLORADO. FINALLY, ON SATURDAY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LOW, SINGLE DIGITS, AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND 80S. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS
ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL AT BEST WITH PERHAPS A STRAY GUST TO 25
MPH CURRENTLY FORECAST, MAINLY FROM YUMA COUNTY INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A MODEST INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, RESULTING IN A TEMPORARY RESPITE FROM
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO LATE IN THE PERIOD IN
THE MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. PRECIPITATION, IF IT OCCURS AT ALL, WILL BE LIGHT WITH
LITTLE, IF ANY, IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
FOR KMCK AND KGLD UNDER CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE OVER
KMCK PRIMARILY. AFTER 00Z, WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO 5-10 KTS OUT
OF THE SOUTH. DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT BACK CLOCKWISE TO THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT COULD MOVE OVER KMCK ~12Z
CREATING A SHIFT TO BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE WINDS TO 10-15
KTS. KGLD MAY SEE THE FRONT PASS THROUGH 14-16Z WHEN THE WINDS
WILL ALSO BECOME NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY, BUT REMAIN CLOSER
TO 10 KTS SUSTAINED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES IN
THE LOW TEENS TO EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ARE FORECAST AS WELL.
THE LIMITING FACTOR TO ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IS THE WIND.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH ARE FORECAST ALTHOUGH WE COULD
SEE AN HOUR OR TWO WHERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH OCCUR DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON SUNDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A STRONGER 850MB JET DEVELOPING
ACROSS CHEYENNE (CO), WALLACE, SHERMAN, KIT CARSON AND PERHAPS
INTO WESTERN THOMAS COUNTY WHICH MAY BE THE FAVORITE AREA FOR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITH CONFIDENCE AROUND 80-90% THAT AT LEAST
ONE WILL OCCUR BUT CONFIDENCE IN 3 OR MORE HOURS NEEDED FOR THE
ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING IS ONLY AROUND 20-30%. ANOTHER
POTENTIAL AREA THAT COULD AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS
IS UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DUNDY, HITCHCOCK AND RED
WILLOW COUNTIES WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO A BIT OF A STRONGER JET. THE REASON FOR NOT ISSUING
A RED FLAG WARNING IS DUE TO THE LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE THAT
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SEE.
TUESDAY, LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN
FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS KIT CARSON, CHEYENNE (CO), GREELEY AND
WALLACE COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST A WARM
FRONT CAN SURVIVE AS THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN WAKE OF A
WIND SHIFT DURING THE MORNING BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY.
EVEN IF THE WARM FRONT CAN MAKE IT THROUGH THE COUNTIES ABOVE
WINDS ARE AGAIN THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK AS GUSTS MAY ONLY GET
TO 25 MPH. THERE IS HOWEVER A SIGNAL FOR HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PERHAPS A
DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH
ANY DOWNBURST. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNDER 0.5 INCHES WITH AN
INVERTED V SOUNDING. ANY LOCATION THAT A STORM COULD EFFECT
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR A WETTING RAIN IS AROUND 20%.
WEDNESDAY, IS A TRICKY DAY WHEN IT COMES TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID TEENS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. THERE IS SIGNAL THAT
TEMPERATURES COULD BE WARMER HOWEVER IN SOME GUIDANCE BUT AM
NOT BUYING IT AS I FEEL THAT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STILL BE
ONGOING FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY IN WAKE OF A TUESDAY
NIGHT COLD FRONT. IF TEMPERATURES WERE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S
THEN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
AREA. GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE COOLER WITH
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY SO CONCERN FOR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS HAS GONE DOWN SOME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF THE
TEMPERATURE TREND DOES BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN.
IRREGARDLESS WITH VERY DRY 10 HOUR FUELS AROUND 10-12% ACCORDING TO
THE KANSAS MESONET THE CONCERN REMAINS FOR FIRE STARTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY FIRES TO GET OUT OF CONTROL REMAINS HIGH.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY TODAY MARCH THE 9TH.
GOODLAND: RECORD HIGH 83 IN 1989.... CURRENT FORECAST 81.
MCCOOK: RECORD HIGH 85 IN 1936.... CURRENT FORECAST 83.
HILL CITY: RECORD HIGH 84 IN 1989... CURRENT FORECAST 83.
BURLINGTON: RECORD HIGH 82 IN 1989.... CURRENT FORECAST 79.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KMK
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
CLIMATE...TRIGG
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