616
FXUS63 KGLD 100627
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1227 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20S.
- A BIT BREEZIER TOMORROW WITH NORTHERLY WIND GUSTING 25-45 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA
AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN UNDER LOW PRESSURE FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE
CURRENT LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES IN FROM THE FRONT RANGE. THE HAND OFF BETWEEN THE
LOW MAY ALLOW PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO HAVE A BRIEF SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE EARLY LOW THAT PRODUCES SOME FOG/ LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS IS ONLY A 15% CHANCES.
EVEN IT DOES FORM, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT IT LASTS MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, COOLER TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AS
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO TRICKLE IN FROM THE NORTH. THOSE SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 40 COULD STILL REACH THE 80S DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE NEXT
LOW MOVES IN AND INTERRUPTS THE NORTHERLY FLOW. WITH RELATIVELY BROAD
LOW PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA, THIS IS FORECAST TO KEEP
WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH. THAT SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BRIEF AND CONFINED TO SOUTH OF I-70 AND ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE THE DRIEST AND WARMS AIR IS FORECAST TO SET
UP TODAY.
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT, THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FINISH PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AND MOVE OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS IT DOES SO, IT IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA. THE ISSUE IS THAT THE LOW LEVELS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY, WHICH HAS LOWERED OUR CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BELOW 10%. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT GET A FEW
SPRINKLES AT BEST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH AS THE NIGHT GOES ON WITH THE COLDER AIR ALSO BEGINNING TO
FILTER IN. LOW ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S.
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE A COOLER AND BREEZIER DAY WITH COLDER
AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CAP AROUND 50,
EVEN UNDERNEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS IN TURN IS FORECAST TO KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW TWENTIES, HELPING TO
PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THAT BEING SAID, THERE
WILL STILL BE INCREASED FIRE DANGER WITH WINDS SUSTAINING FROM THE
NORTH AROUND 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING UP TO 45 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LIGHTEN AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AND INVERSION SETS UP UNDERNEATH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WITH THESE CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO
THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IT SHARPENS UP A BIT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE PATTERN
AMPLIFIES AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EACH OF THOSE DAYS WILL SEE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROP INTO THE TEENS IN A PART OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
MAY BE THE MOST MARGINAL DAY IN TERMS OF REACHING THE 15%
THRESHOLD FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS DUE TO COOLER POST FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES. WIND SPEEDS ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER DO APPEAR
FAVORABLE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH. THURSDAY WILL SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR HUMIDITY
REACHING 15% AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. THERE WILL BE A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA, WITH HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS NORTH OF
THE TROUGH, GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THAT AREA WITH A
PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY. THE QUESTION MAY COME DOWN TO REACHING
15% FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS AS IT DOES TAKE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY
CONFINED TO WESTERN AREAS, MAINLY COLORADO, WITH A SHALLOW COLD
FRONT RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FURTHER EAST. WINDS
SPEEDS SOMEWHAT MORE MARGINAL BUT MAY SEE SOME SPORADIC GUSTS
TO 25 MPH OR HIGHER IN COLORADO. FINALLY, ON SATURDAY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LOW, SINGLE DIGITS, AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND 80S. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS
ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL AT BEST WITH PERHAPS A STRAY GUST TO 25
MPH CURRENTLY FORECAST, MAINLY FROM YUMA COUNTY INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A MODEST INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, RESULTING IN A TEMPORARY RESPITE FROM
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO LATE IN THE PERIOD IN
THE MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. PRECIPITATION, IF IT OCCURS AT ALL, WILL BE LIGHT WITH
LITTLE, IF ANY, IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD,
THOUGH THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF FOG AND/OR CEILINGS AROUND 800FT
BETWEEN 10-14Z AT KMCK. OTHERWISE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
MOVING OVER THE AREA, WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP WINDS BELOW 15
KTS. HOWEVER, WIND DIRECTION SHOULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS THE
LOW SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19-23Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
FOR TODAY, THE AREA COULD SEE SOME BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST
TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS, BUT ONLY FOR LOCALES SOUTH OF
I-70 AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THE REST OF THE AREA IS
FORECAST TO HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY HIGHER AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. THE LIMITER ON THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL AGAIN BE THE WIND WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE GENERALLY KEEPING
WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH. THAT BEING SAID, THERE COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AREA, AHEAD OF THE
SECONDARY LOW. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE LOWERED BELOW
10%, LOWERING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HELPFUL RAIN. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT THE CHANCE FOR DRY LIGHTNING HAS ALSO LOWERED.
WEDNESDAY REMAINS FORECAST TO BE COOLER FOR NOW, WITH LESS THAN
A 20% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD GET WARM ENOUGH FOR
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW TEENS. STILL
WINDS, WILL LIKELY GUST 25-45 MPH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY.
WITH VERY DRY 10 HOUR FUELS AROUND 10-12% ACCORDING TO THE
KANSAS MESONET THE CONCERN REMAINS FOR FIRE STARTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY FIRES TO GET OUT OF CONTROL REMAINS HIGH.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG/KAK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page