525
FXUS63 KGLD 110512
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1112 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- WARMING BACK UP THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- WINDY AND COLDER SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SHALLOW AIR MASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO WHICH MAY ALLOW A BRIEF WARM UP IN FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH THIS
EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DUE TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. LATER TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW AS IT
BRUSHES THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE NEGLIGIBLE,
MIGHT SEE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO FROM YUMA COUNTY INTO DUNDY
COUNTY, BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND TO THE EAST TOMORROW MORNING. A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COLDER AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE WINDS ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF 30-40 MPH GUSTS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
COOLER AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. MAY SEE SOME LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS DEW
POINTS TANK AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST 30-40 MPH AT TIMES.
ONLY THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT MORE WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL CONDITIONS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON THURSDAY, BUT SURFACE WINDS
SHIFT TO WESTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH
THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW DEW POINTS CONTINUE AND WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH DEEP MIXING WITH MOST OF THE
AREA SEEING LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS HIGHER THAN 25 MPH.
ALTHOUGH HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS (NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70), WHERE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
CLOSER TO A JET STREAK NOSING INTO NEBRASKA, EVEN SOUTHERN AREAS
SHOULD SEE GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25 MPH. SO ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHALLOW BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING IN THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS LATE. TYPICALLY SEE LOW CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME FOG IN THIS SITUATION. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
QUICKLY DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER AND REACH THE 70S ONCE AGAIN FOR HIGHS,
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN EASTERN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOWER TO RECOVER FROM EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE TEENS IN WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA (WEST OF HIGHWAY 27), WHICH COMBINED WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WILL MANAGE ONE MORE DAY OF WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A BRIEF PATTERN CHANGE. BEST COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER WESTERN AREAS
WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. NBM
MEANS SHOW WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH OR HIGHER
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF LESS THAN 15% WEST OF A MCCOOK TO
GOODLAND LINE, WITH EASTERN AREAS MORE MARGINAL WITH BOTH
PARAMETERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S IF
NOT 80S WITH THE DOWNSLOPING HELP.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY, BRINGING ABRUPTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES, WINDY
CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH TODAY, INCREASING THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. WHILE NOT A CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM, IT STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (HIGH END
PERCENTILES SHOWING AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE) AS WELL AS STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS (HIGHER PERCENTILE WIND GUSTS
CURRENTLY IN THE 40-60 MPH RANGE). HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 40S ON SUNDAY AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE TEENS. SINCE IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
DOWNSTREAM FROM A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER SYSTEM, BUT WILL WARM BACK TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. NBM MEANS SHOW GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20%, RAISING THE
POSSIBILITY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, WILL NEED TO SEE
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS OVER WEEKEND, SINCE THAT MAY IMPACT
FUELS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO BREEZY WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR FOR EACH TERMINAL, FIRST AT MCK THEN CLOSER
TOWARDS 12Z FOR GLD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BREEZY DURING
THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH AN INTERMITTENT PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS MAY
OCCUR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN MID TO LATE MORNING
STILL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS HOWEVER THROUGH SUNSET WEDNESDAY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...TRIGG
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