503
FXUS63 KGLD 110731
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
131 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT DRIER AND BREEZY WITH ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- WARMING BACK UP THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY. ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- WINDY AND COLDER SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 128 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF SW KANSAS. BREEZY WINDS OCCURRED
WITH THIS FRONT BUT HAVE WEAKENED SOME ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LET UP SOME. AM
FORECASTING ANOTHER SURGE OF WINDS TO OCCUR AROUND 12Z OR SO AS
ANOTHER TRAILING FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A BAND OF SNOW
HAS SET UP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO IMPACT MAINLY YUMA COUNTY BUT COULD AFFECT THE TRI-STATE
BORDER AREA CLOSER TO AROUND 10Z OR SO. MINIMAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION REMAINS FORECAST WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
TIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT EVEN DRIER DEW POINTS COULD MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE AS MIXING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 6000-8000
FEET. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE PRESENT
WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS AND THE WINDS. I DID CONTEMPLATE A RED
FLAG WARNING DUE TO THE CONCERN FOR THE DRIER AIR TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. OPTED TO HOLD OFF DUE TO A SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND WITH
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD MAKE THE EVENT EVEN MORE
MARGINAL. THE COOLER FORECAST TEMPERATURES ALSO BRINGS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS WELL AS TO HOW HOT A FIRE COULD GET. THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO KEEPING GFDI IN THE "HIGH" CATEGORY WHICH
TYPICALLY ACTS AS AN ADDITIONAL NUDGE. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID,
DID OPT TO HOLD OFF A PRODUCT FOR TODAY DUE TO CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD 3+ HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ONLY BEING AROUND
30-40%; CONFIDENCE IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL IS AROUND
60-70%. A SURFACE MOVING INTO THE AREA IS FORECAST TO END THE
WINDS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE SITUATING ITSELF
ACROSS THE THE CWA DURING THE EVENING LEADING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
THURSDAY MORNING THE HIGH PRESSURE GETS SHOVED OUT OF THE AREA BY A
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
ALLOWING WARMING TO OCCUR. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS WILL
BE THE VARIABLE AS TO HOW LOW TEMPERATURES FALL AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS PROMOTE STEADY TO RISING TEMPERATURES. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO ANOTHER WARM DAY
FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO PERHAPS EVEN SOME LOW
80S. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS INCREASE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
36 WHERE PART OF A MOUNTAIN WAVE BREAKS OFF AND INCREASES THE
700MB FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST HAS AROUND 45-50 MPH WINDS ACROSS
YUMA AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BUT THE 00Z NAM INDICATES THAT THIS
COULD ACTUALLY SET UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL INTO NORTHERN
KIT CARSON, CHEYENNE (KS) AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN SHERMAN COUNTY.
THE NAM ALSO INDICATES A STRONGER 700MB JET WHERE WIND GUSTS OF
50-55 MPH WOULD BE A BIT MORE COMMON ALONG WITH A ROGUE 60 MPH
WIND GUST. CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST ONE WIND GUST OF 55+ MPH
WINDS IS AROUND 35-45% AT THIS TIME. FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS
FOR THE AREA AS THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR NUMEROUS HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WITH THE
FAVORED AREA FOR THE MOST RAPID SPREAD DUE TO THE WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH, CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY INCREASE IN THE WINDS WITH THE
FRONT AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WILL MANAGE ONE MORE DAY OF WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A BRIEF PATTERN CHANGE. BEST COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER WESTERN AREAS
WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. NBM
MEANS SHOW WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH OR HIGHER
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF LESS THAN 15% WEST OF A MCCOOK TO
GOODLAND LINE, WITH EASTERN AREAS MORE MARGINAL WITH BOTH
PARAMETERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S IF
NOT 80S WITH THE DOWNSLOPING HELP.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY, BRINGING ABRUPTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES, WINDY
CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH TODAY, INCREASING THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. WHILE NOT A CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM, IT STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (HIGH END
PERCENTILES SHOWING AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE) AS WELL AS STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS (HIGHER PERCENTILE WIND GUSTS
CURRENTLY IN THE 40-60 MPH RANGE). HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 40S ON SUNDAY AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE TEENS. SINCE IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
DOWNSTREAM FROM A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER SYSTEM, BUT WILL WARM BACK TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. NBM MEANS SHOW GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20%, RAISING THE
POSSIBILITY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, WILL NEED TO SEE
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS OVER WEEKEND, SINCE THAT MAY IMPACT
FUELS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO BREEZY WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR FOR EACH TERMINAL, FIRST AT MCK THEN CLOSER
TOWARDS 12Z FOR GLD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BREEZY DURING
THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH AN INTERMITTENT PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS MAY
OCCUR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN MID TO LATE MORNING
STILL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS HOWEVER THROUGH SUNSET WEDNESDAY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...TRIGG
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