143
FXUS63 KGLD 251834
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1234 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
- BREEZY/STRONG (25-35 G45 MPH) NORTH WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70 LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE A LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALONG MUCH OF
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN AND SETUP ISN'T FORECAST TO CHANGE
MUCH TODAY SHORT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS MORE OF
THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER HIGH BEGINNING TO DEAMPLIFY AND SHIFT
SOUTH. THE UPPER HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
AND HELP THE AREA INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE. THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MAYBE MID
90S. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP A BIT THIS
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW EXPANDS AND CREATES A SLIGHT
GRADIENT. SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 25
MPH, BUT UP TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST THROUGH NOON. AS THE LOW
FINISHES BROADENING OUT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HEIGHT
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SHOULD WEAKEN AND ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE MORNING, BUT THE
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON, HAVE CANCELED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STILL MAY WANT TO USE EXTRA
CAUTION WITH FIRES THIS MORNING WHILE THE WINDS ARE STRONG.
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AN 850-700MB TROUGH FORECAST TO BE JUST UPSTREAM OF
THE AREA. WHILE UNLIKELY TO REACH THE GROUND OR IMPACT THE
AREA, THERE IS ABOUT A 10% CHANCE THAT ONE OF THE SPRINKLES MAY
BE ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A STRONG DOWNDRAFT. IF SO,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SPEEDS AROUND 60 MPH. THOUGH AS MENTIONED, THE
CONFIDENCE THAT THE CONDITIONS NEEDED FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS VERY
LOW. OTHERWISE, THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE SURFACE LOW BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE PLAINS. WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER
THE AREA THOUGH, LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE 50S.
TOMORROW, THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TO THE SOUTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTER OF THE LOW BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY NOON, BUT NOT SO MUCH ON WHEN THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. FOR THOSE NORTH OF I-70, TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO CAP IN THE 60S AND 70S AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS IN.
MEANWHILE, FOR NOW, THOSE SOUTH OF I-70 ARE GENERALLY FORECAST
TO REACH THE 80S AND MAYBE EVEN THE 90S. THIS COULD POSE A
PROBLEM AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW WITH SPEEDS AROUND 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. IF
TEMPERATURES DO TRULY GET THAT WARM, THEN RH MAY DROP INTO THE
MID TO LOW TEENS AND ALLOW FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
NO WATCH OR WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME AS THE EARLY
PASSAGE SHOULD HELP KEEP US JUST COOL ENOUGH. BUT WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR ANY SLOWING OF THE LOW PASSAGE. PROBABLY JUST A
GOOD DAY TO NOT BURN ANYWAYS THOUGH WITH THE BREEZIER WINDS. FOR
NOW, THE FORECAST WIND MAGNITUDE IS LIKELY TOO LOW FOR
WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST IMPACTS. STILL, BE ALERT FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS AS OPEN FIELDS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SMALL INSTANCE
OF VERY LOW VISIBILITY. THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY LOWER AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST. WITH WINDS LIGHTENING AND COLD AIR PUSHING IN
FROM THE NORTH, MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES LOWER
TO AROUND FREEZING. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS AS MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE PUSHED IN WITH THE COLDER AIR
AND MAY BE ABLE TO PRECIPITATE OUT. IT WOULDN'T BE UNREASONABLE
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN IF THIS DOES OCCUR. EVEN SO,
ACCUMULATIONS OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH THE
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE LIMITING HOW MUCH WOULD ACTUALLY REACH
THE GROUND.
FRIDAY, THE PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNDER THE COOLER AIR MASS
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
INTO THE 50S, WITH SOME COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER
POTENTIALLY BELOW 50 IF SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CAN REMAIN AND
PROVIDE CLOUD COVER. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE AROUND
10-15 MPH WITH THE STRONGER SPEEDS LATER IN THE DAY AS THE HIGH
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY, A SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MORNING HOURS ARE FORECAST TO BE
THE BREEZIEST IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA PERHAPS STILL SEEING 35-45 MPH WINDS AS THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION BREAKS AND WINDS FROM THE 850MB LEVEL CAN MIX DOWN.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE IN WAKE OF THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL BE
COOLER AND A LOT MORE MARCH LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS
THE AREA. DRY AIR WILL AGAIN BE IN PLACE AS NORTHEASTERLY 850MB
WINDS WILL FILTER IN DRY AIR ALLOWING HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. WITH THE LACK OF CORRELATION
WITH THE BREEZIEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND THE DRIEST AIR
DURING THE AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY NOT OF
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN BUT A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
DURING THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES OCCUR FOR AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
MAJORITY OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORS A BIT MORE EASTERN
PROGRESSIVE WARM FRONT WHICH MAY LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE 850MB WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE 25- 35 KNOTS. THE 700MB WIND FIELD CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER WHICH SUGGESTS TO ME THAT A
STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS IS MOST LIKELY. A CAVEAT TO THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY AT LEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW WHICH COULD WEAKEN THE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION IF HUMIDITY
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA CAN FALL TO CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS AS THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF A WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 80S BUT COULD BE ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES
WARMER IF THE WARM FRONT IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE.
SUNDAY, WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST. WINDS FOR THE DAY ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE LIGHTER . NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE AGAIN IN JEOPARDY. THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME
VIRGA/SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS AS A WITH A DEPARTING 250MB JET.
CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT
RISK FOR THIS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 10-14% AT THIS TIME.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF THE MUCAPE AS WHAT I WAS SEEING
YESTERDAY BUT WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ON THE OFF
CHANCE THERE COULD A ROGUE DRY LIGHTING STRIKE WITH HOW DRY THE
FUELS ARE.
STARTING THE NEW WORK WEEK, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL
WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO BE
IRONED OUT BEFORE GETTING INTO COVERAGE, AMOUNTS AND IF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO HAVE AN
EYE KEPT ON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WEEK ARE STILL
FORECAST TO REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. NNW WINDS AT 15-25 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER WEAKEN TO 5-10
KNOTS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY BECOMING S TO WSW BY SUNRISE
THU MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N OR NNE AND INCREASE TO
10-20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING (15-18Z THU), AT THE END OF
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
TODAY: HOTTER AND DRIER WITH RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD HIGHS IN THE
90'S AND MINIMUM RH READINGS AROUND 10%. A SHORT (1-2 HOUR)
PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-70 LATE THIS MORNING, WHEN NW WINDS WILL REACH 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO ~30 MPH. VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT WINDS WILL DECREASE TO ~10-15 MPH AROUND NOON MDT
(~18Z) AND THAT WINDS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES.
THURSDAY: A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON THURSDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS (RH AS LOW AS 15%) WILL PERSIST
AND LIGHT NE WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WILL ABRUPTLY INCREASE TO ~25-35 MPH W/GUSTS TO 45 MPH DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES (FOR THE DATE) ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY MARCH 25.
==================================================
RECORD HIGHS FOR WED MARCH 25 CURRENT FORECAST
==================================================
BURLINGTON.........83 IN 1998 91
GOODLAND...........85 IN 1907 92
HILL CITY..........88 IN 1956 94
MCCOOK.............88 IN 1910 92
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...VINCENT
FIRE WEATHER...VINCENT
CLIMATE...VINCENT
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