418
FXUS63 KGLD 260507
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1107 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70 THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH, INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO PERSIST.
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
INCREASED POPS A LITTLE BIT ACROSS YUMA COUNTY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS AGITATED CUMULUS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DEVELOP
AND ALSO OFF OF THE ROCKIES. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
MUCAPE PRESENT SO A ROGUE DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CAN'T BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS PLOTTED ON
THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND A CORRIDOR OF 1000+ J/KG OF DCAPE
ACROSS YUMA COUNTY COULD ALSO RESULT IN A GUSTY TO STRONG
DOWNBURST WIND GUST WITH ANY DRY CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IN ANY
OF THIS IS LESS THAN 10%.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: HOTTER AND DRIER WITH RECORD OR
NEAR-RECORD HIGHS IN THE 90'S AND MINIMUM RH READINGS AROUND
10%. BREEZY NW WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING HAVE RAPIDLY
WEAKENED TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO (SINCE ~12P
MDT, CHECK OUT KGLD VELOCITY DATA FROM 17-19Z). WINDS WILL
FURTHER WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING VARIABLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MODEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW (S WINDS AT 10-15 MPH)
WILL FOLLOW, THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT (THU
MORNING) LOWS IN THE UPPER 40'S TO MID 50'S.
THU-THU NIGHT: CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NNE-NE DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING AS A BROAD
SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN KS SHIFTS SOUTH TOWARD THE OK PANHANDLE.
EXPECT A NORTH-TO-SOUTH COOLING TREND AND BREEZY TO STRONG
(~25-35 G 45 MPH) NNE TO NE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH PRONOUNCED
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES / LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON, AS MODIFIED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
DAKOTAS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID-UPPER 70'S NORTH OF HWY 34 TO LOWER 90'S IN SOUTHERN
GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES AND OVERNIGHT (FRI MORNING) LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY, A SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MORNING HOURS ARE FORECAST
TO BE THE BREEZIEST IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PERHAPS STILL SEEING 35-45 MPH WINDS AS THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION BREAKS AND WINDS FROM THE 850MB LEVEL CAN
MIX DOWN. THE AIR MASS WILL BE IN WAKE OF THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT
WILL BE COOLER AND A LOT MORE MARCH LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR WILL AGAIN BE IN PLACE AS NORTHEASTERLY
850MB WINDS WILL FILTER IN DRY AIR ALLOWING HUMIDITY VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. WITH THE LACK OF
CORRELATION WITH THE BREEZIEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING AND THE
DRIEST AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY NOT OF
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN BUT A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
DURING THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES OCCUR FOR AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THE MAJORITY OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORS A BIT MORE
EASTERN PROGRESSIVE WARM FRONT WHICH MAY LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE 850MB WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE 25- 35 KNOTS. THE 700MB WIND FIELD CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER WHICH SUGGESTS TO ME THAT A
STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS IS MOST LIKELY. A CAVEAT TO THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY AT LEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW WHICH COULD WEAKEN THE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION IF HUMIDITY
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA CAN FALL TO CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS AS THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF A WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 80S BUT COULD BE ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES
WARMER IF THE WARM FRONT IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE.
SUNDAY, WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST. WINDS FOR THE DAY
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE LIGHTER . NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN IN JEOPARDY. THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS AS A WITH A DEPARTING
250MB JET. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AT RISK FOR THIS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 10-14%
AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF THE MUCAPE AS WHAT I
WAS SEEING YESTERDAY BUT WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
ON THE OFF CHANCE THERE COULD A ROGUE DRY LIGHTING STRIKE WITH
HOW DRY THE FUELS ARE.
STARTING THE NEW WORK WEEK, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A BIT
MORE ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES WITHIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE AS WELL WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS
STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT BEFORE GETTING INTO
COVERAGE, AMOUNTS AND IF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO HAVE AN EYE KEPT ON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WEEK ARE STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT BOTH
TERMINALS. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS
COULD MOVE OVER KMCK BETWEEN 0600-0900Z. IF ONE DOES MOVE OVER,
BE ALERT FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. OTHERWISE, SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT REMAINS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 1200-1800Z, SHIFTING WINDS TO
BE MORE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN
WITH SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE AROUND 20 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS.
AFTER 1500-1800Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
THURSDAY: A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON THURSDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS (RH AS LOW AS 15%) WILL PERSIST
AND LIGHT (10-20 MPH) NE WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL ABRUPTLY INCREASE TO ~25-35 MPH W/GUSTS TO 45
MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. RH READINGS WILL QUICKLY RISE AS
TEMPERATURES FALL FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT THE ONSET OF STRONG NE
WINDS / LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE HOURS, ABRUPT STRENGTHENING OF NE WINDS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT RISK TO FIRST
RESPONDERS, SHOULD ANY FIRES DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY WITH EXTREMELY
DRY FUELS FROM PROLONGED HOT/DRY WEATHER AND WORSENING DROUGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES (FOR THE DATE) ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
==================================================
RECORD HIGHS FOR WED MARCH 25 CURRENT FORECAST
==================================================
BURLINGTON.........83 IN 1998 91
GOODLAND...........85 IN 1907 92
HILL CITY..........88 IN 1956 94
MCCOOK.............88 IN 1910 92
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM
CDT/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ253-
254.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...KAK
FIRE WEATHER...VINCENT
CLIMATE...VINCENT
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