470
FXUS63 KGLD 260820
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70 THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH, INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO PERSIST.
- SATURDAY COULD BRING MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA WITH BREEZY WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND PLAINS. THAT BEING SAID, IT IS BEGINNING
TO DEAMPLIFY AND SHIFT A BIT TO THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST BEGINS TO PUSH INTO IT. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS SET UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK FOR THIS UPPER TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH.
AS IT DOES SO, IT IS FORECAST TO CONDENSE THE LOW AND BEGIN SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH.
THE TIMING STILL HAS THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER THE AREA JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA JUST BEFORE NOON. FOR THE MORNING
HOURS, THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH
THAT SLOWLY SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. BY THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND IT AS THE COLDER AIR MASS MOVES IN. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH. FOR LOCALES NORTH OF I-70, THE COLD AIR MASS TRYING TO MOVE
IN SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE OR LEAD TO A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 70S. THE REST OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH IS
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND MAYBE EVEN THE 90S BEFORE THE COLD
AIR WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IN. WITH THIS, VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE WHICH IS WHY A RED FLAG
WARNING WAS ISSUED. THERE IS STILL ABOUT A 15% CHANCE THAT THE FRONT
SPEEDS UP AND KEEPS RELATIVE HUMIDITY MORE IN THE 20% RANGE. EVEN
SO, THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS WE HAVE HAD ALONG WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL STILL LEAD TO HIGHER FIRE DANGER TODAY.
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. AS SUCH, THE RED FLAG WARNING DOES
LAST UNTIL 8PM MT / 9PM CT. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND
THE COLDER AIR MASS MOVES MORE INTO THE AREA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD WEAKEN AND WINDS SLOWLY BEGIN TO LOWER. SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA WHICH COULD LEAD TO
A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT MOST OF IT REACHES THE
GROUND DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET.
BUT IT WOULDN'T BE UNREASONABLE TO SEE A FEW DROPS OF RAIN OR FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.
FRIDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER THE COLDER AIR MASS AT THE
SURFACE. ALOFT, WE ARE FORECAST TO GO UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE
RIDGE TRYING TO REAMPLIFY IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGHING IN THE
EAST. WITH THE AREA UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, TOMORROW IS FORECAST TO
BE MORE OF A SPRING DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND WINDS AROUND 5-15
MPH.
SATURDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER DAY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR MASS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN SHIFTING OFF TO
THE EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGHING DOES. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS SETUP
SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AGAIN ALLOW FOR WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH. THE THING IS THAT THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH TO MIX
DOWN AS THE HEIGHTS GRADIENTS MAY BE WEAKER AND KEEP WIND GUSTS ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SURFACE WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THE
SURFACE LOW EXTENDS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS WINDS FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NO PRODUCT HAS BEEN ISSUED YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WINDS ALONG WITH SOME QUESTIONS OF HOW HOT/DRY
IT WILL GET. BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN UPCOMING FORECAST
PACKAGES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST
ON SUNDAY WITH A FASTER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE SHORTWAVES WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND
RAIN CHANCES CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE EITHER DAY, BUT WITH INSTABILITY GENERALLY LESS
THAN 500 J/KG SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. NONETHELESS, IN
THE HOT AND DRY ENVIRONMENT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUST WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.
INSTABILITY DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE UPPER WAVE MAY
POTENTIALLY BE STRONGER AND BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. GFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE AVERAGES ALL
SHOW SNOW AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND QPF GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE
OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS DOES CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER
SYSTEM AND HIGHER RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ON SUNDAY, THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MINIMUMS OF 10-15%, LOWEST WEST OF HIGHWAY 83, WHICH IS
ALSO WHERE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTING 20-30 MPH. ON MONDAY,
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE CONFINED TO COLORADO, AS HUMIDITY
INCREASES FURTHER EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH AND
MORE NORTHERLY WINDS. ON TUESDAY, WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
RETURN AND HUMIDITY DROPS TO 15-20% ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ALSO FORECAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, ENDING THE RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
THE TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE PERIOD WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, THEN
COOLING INTO THE 50S AND 60S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT BOTH
TERMINALS. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS
COULD MOVE OVER KMCK BETWEEN 0600-0900Z. IF ONE DOES MOVE OVER,
BE ALERT FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. OTHERWISE, SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT REMAINS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 1200-1800Z, SHIFTING WINDS TO
BE MORE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN
WITH SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE AROUND 20 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS.
AFTER 1500-1800Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
TODAY, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED INTO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. THE COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ITSELF SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WITH THIS, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM OUT OF THE
SOUTH, TO OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST, TO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO
HAVE SPEEDS AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THE WORST
OF THE WINDS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR CLOSER TO SUNSET WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH. BE CAREFUL OF ANY WEAKENING OF THE WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WE LIKELY WILL NOT BE DONE WITH THE WORST
OF THE WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A 15-20% CHANCE THE LOW BROADENS
INSTEAD OF SHIFTING, WHICH WOULD KEEP WINDS WEAK DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ALL BEING SAID, WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
LESSEN AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IMPROVE AFTER 8PM MT / 9PM CT.
FRIDAY, LOWER CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD KEEP WINDS AROUND 5-15 MPH. COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO KEEP RH ABOVE 25%.
SATURDAY, WE MAY AGAIN SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. WHILE THE SUSTAINED WINDS MAY NEAR 20
MPH, GUSTS MAY STRUGGLE TO BE MUCH MORE BEYOND THAT. GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY BE SIMILAR
IN SPEED AS THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE BROAD NORTHWEST
FLOW. THAT BEING SAID, IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE FOR
HIGHER GUSTS TO BECOME A POSSIBILITY. WILL ALSO NEED TO SEE IF
THE LOW BROADENS OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS THE WINDS.
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION REMAINS FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH THE ONLY CHANCE BEING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES, MAYBE SHOWERS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8
PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ013>016-027>029-041-
042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK
FIRE WEATHER...KAK
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