590
FXUS63 KGLD 261758
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1158 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70 THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH, INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO PERSIST.
- SATURDAY COULD BRING MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA WITH BREEZY WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND PLAINS. THAT BEING SAID, IT IS
BEGINNING TO DEAMPLIFY AND SHIFT A BIT TO THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST BEGINS TO PUSH INTO IT. AT THE
SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SET UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH. AS IT DOES SO, IT IS FORECAST
TO CONDENSE THE LOW AND BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE
BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. THE TIMING STILL HAS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER THE AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND
THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA JUST BEFORE NOON. FOR THE MORNING HOURS,
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH
THAT SLOWLY SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. BY THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND IT AS THE COLDER AIR MASS MOVES
IN. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. FOR LOCALES NORTH OF I-70, THE COLD AIR
MASS TRYING TO MOVE IN SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE OR LEAD
TO A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 70S. THE REST
OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH IS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND
MAYBE EVEN THE 90S BEFORE THE COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IN.
WITH THIS, VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN PLACE WHICH IS WHY A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED. THERE IS
STILL ABOUT A 15% CHANCE THAT THE FRONT SPEEDS UP AND KEEPS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MORE IN THE 20% RANGE. EVEN SO, THE PERSISTENT
DRY CONDITIONS WE HAVE HAD ALONG WITH THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
STILL LEAD TO HIGHER FIRE DANGER TODAY.
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
STRONG IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. AS SUCH, THE RED FLAG
WARNING DOES LAST UNTIL 8PM MT / 9PM CT. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND THE COLDER AIR MASS MOVES MORE INTO THE AREA,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN AND WINDS SLOWLY BEGIN TO
LOWER. SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT MOST OF IT REACHES THE GROUND DUE TO THE DRY AIR
IN PLACE IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET. BUT IT WOULDN'T BE
UNREASONABLE TO SEE A FEW DROPS OF RAIN OR FEW SNOWFLAKES AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
FRIDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER THE COLDER AIR MASS AT
THE SURFACE. ALOFT, WE ARE FORECAST TO GO UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH THE RIDGE TRYING TO REAMPLIFY IN THE WEST AND BROAD
TROUGHING IN THE EAST. WITH THE AREA UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE,
TOMORROW IS FORECAST TO BE MORE OF A SPRING DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND WINDS AROUND 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER DAY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR MASS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN SHIFTING
OFF TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGHING DOES. MEANWHILE, AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
THIS SETUP SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AGAIN
ALLOW FOR WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH. THE THING IS THAT THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH TO MIX DOWN AS THE HEIGHTS GRADIENTS MAY BE WEAKER
AND KEEP WIND GUSTS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SURFACE WINDS.
THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THE SURFACE LOW EXTENDS INTO THE AREA
AND WEAKENS WINDS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NO PRODUCT
HAS BEEN ISSUED YET GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WINDS ALONG
WITH SOME QUESTIONS OF HOW HOT/DRY IT WILL GET. BUT THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY IN UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST
ON SUNDAY WITH A FASTER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE SHORTWAVES WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND
RAIN CHANCES CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE EITHER DAY, BUT WITH INSTABILITY GENERALLY LESS THAN
500 J/KG SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. NONETHELESS, IN THE
HOT AND DRY ENVIRONMENT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LOCALLY
STRONGER WIND GUST WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. INSTABILITY
DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE UPPER WAVE MAY POTENTIALLY BE
STRONGER AND BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. GFS, ECMWF
AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE AVERAGES ALL SHOW SNOW AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN ONE INCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND QPF GENERALLY LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS DOES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER SYSTEM AND HIGHER RAIN AND SNOW
AMOUNTS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ON SUNDAY, THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MINIMUMS OF 10-15%, LOWEST WEST OF HIGHWAY 83, WHICH
IS ALSO WHERE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTING 20-30 MPH. ON
MONDAY, CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE CONFINED TO COLORADO, AS
HUMIDITY INCREASES FURTHER EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH AND MORE NORTHERLY WINDS. ON TUESDAY, WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN AND HUMIDITY DROPS TO 15-20% ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ALSO FORECAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, ENDING THE RISK FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE PERIOD WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, THEN
COOLING INTO THE 50S AND 60S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE NEXT
FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS, WITH CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 7,000 TO 10,000 FT AGL. NNE
TO NE WINDS AT 15-25 KNOTS WILL GUST TO 30-35 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON, INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO ~40 KNOTS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (~00-05Z FRI), THEN
DECREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (~06Z FRI) AND FURTHER
DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING (15-18Z FRI),
AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
TODAY: AN IMPACT-BASED RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70. AS OF 17Z / 11 AM MDT, RH READINGS ARE
RISING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GOODLAND CWA, AS BREEZY NE WINDS ADVECT
A COOL/MOIST AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30'S TO LOWER
40'S) SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS. AT THIS POINT,
IT IS EXTREMELY UNLIKELY THAT RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL BE MET AT
ALL, LET ALONE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, BREEZY TO STRONG
NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY POSE A SIGNIFICANT RISK TO FIRST
RESPONDERS, SHOULD ANY FIRES DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY WITH EXTREMELY
DRY FUELS FROM PROLONGED HOT/DRY WEATHER AND WORSENING DROUGHT.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND, THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS-IS.
FRIDAY: NO APPRECIABLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. EXPECT MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50'S AND MINIMUM RH
READINGS RANGING FROM 15-20% (EAST OF HWY 83) TO 25% (EASTERN
CO). NE WINDS AT 10-20 MPH DURING THE MORNING WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT TO THE E AND SE DURING THE AFTERNOON, REMAINING LIGHT AT 5
TO 15 MPH.
SATURDAY: STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH IN WY-CO (AND
WESTERN FRINGE OF ~1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MS
RIVER VALLEY) WILL FOSTER BREEZY S TO SW WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY. AT PRESENT,
GUIDANCE INDICATES A PRONOUNCED DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE
WARMEST/DRIEST CONDITIONS IN EASTERN CO AND BREEZIEST S-SW WINDS
IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA, WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
WITH EASTERN EXTENT FROM THE CO BORDER. EXPECT AN INCREASED FIRE
DANGER, MAINLY IN WESTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST NE WHERE BREEZY
WINDS AND LOW RH ARE MORE LIKELY TO OVERLAP.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...VINCENT
FIRE WEATHER...VINCENT
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