036
FXUS63 KGLD 261905
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
105 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 UNTIL
SUNSET THIS EVENING.
- NOTICEABLY COOLER ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50'S.
- A WARMING TREND AND BREEZY S TO SW WINDS WILL FOLLOW, ON
SATURDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, MAINLY EAST OF THE CO-KS BORDER.
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT: AN IMPACT-BASED RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70. AS OF 18Z / NOON MDT, RH READINGS
ARE RISING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GOODLAND CWA AS BREEZY NE WINDS
ADVECT A COOL/MOIST AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30'S TO
LOWER 40'S) SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS. AT THIS
POINT, IT IS EXTREMELY UNLIKELY THAT RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL BE
MET AT ALL, LET ALONE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, BREEZY TO
STRONG NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY POSE A SIGNIFICANT RISK TO
FIRST RESPONDERS, SHOULD ANY FIRES DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY WITH
EXTREMELY DRY FUELS FROM PROLONGED HOT/DRY WEATHER AND WORSENING
DROUGHT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND, THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AS-IS. EXPECT THE STRONGEST NE WINDS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ~23-05Z (5-11P MDT), WHEN LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS ~25-35 MPH AND GUSTS TO ~45 MPH..
DECREASING TO 15-25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT (FRI
MORNING) LOWS IN THE UPPER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: IN THE WAKE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION,
EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.. WITH HIGHS IN THE 50'S. NE
WINDS AT 10-20 MPH DURING THE MORNING WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO
THE E AND SE DURING THE AFTERNOON, REMAINING LIGHT AT 5 TO 15
MPH. EXPECT OVERNIGHT (SAT MORNING) LOWS IN THE UPPER 20'S TO
MID 30'S.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH IN WY-CO (AND
WESTERN FRINGE OF ~1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MS
RIVER VALLEY) WILL FOSTER A WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM ~70F ALONG HWY 283 TO ~80F IN EASTERN CO.. AND BREEZY
(~20-30 MPH G35 MPH) S TO SW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA (EAST
OF THE CO-KS BORDER). FROM A FIRE WEATHER STANDPOINT, GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE
WARMEST/DRIEST CONDITIONS IN EASTERN CO AND BREEZIEST S-SW WINDS
IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA, WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
WITH EASTERN EXTENT FROM THE CO BORDER. EXPECT AN INCREASED FIRE
DANGER, MAINLY IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WHERE BREEZY S-SW WINDS WILL BE [1] PRESENT AND [2] MORE LIKELY
TO OVERLAP WITH A WARMER/DRIER AIRMASS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN FROM
WEST-TO-EAST OVERNIGHT, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT (SUN MORNING) LOWS IN THE 40'S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST
ON SUNDAY WITH A FASTER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE SHORTWAVES WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND
RAIN CHANCES CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE EITHER DAY, BUT WITH INSTABILITY GENERALLY LESS THAN
500 J/KG SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. NONETHELESS, IN THE
HOT AND DRY ENVIRONMENT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LOCALLY
STRONGER WIND GUST WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. INSTABILITY
DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE UPPER WAVE MAY POTENTIALLY BE
STRONGER AND BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. GFS, ECMWF
AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE AVERAGES ALL SHOW SNOW AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN ONE INCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND QPF GENERALLY LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS DOES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER SYSTEM AND HIGHER RAIN AND SNOW
AMOUNTS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ON SUNDAY, THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MINIMUMS OF 10-15%, LOWEST WEST OF HIGHWAY 83, WHICH
IS ALSO WHERE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTING 20-30 MPH. ON
MONDAY, CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE CONFINED TO COLORADO, AS
HUMIDITY INCREASES FURTHER EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH AND MORE NORTHERLY WINDS. ON TUESDAY, WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN AND HUMIDITY DROPS TO 15-20% ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ALSO FORECAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, ENDING THE RISK FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE PERIOD WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, THEN
COOLING INTO THE 50S AND 60S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE NEXT
FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS, WITH CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 7,000 TO 10,000 FT AGL. NNE
TO NE WINDS AT 15-25 KNOTS WILL GUST TO 30-35 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON, INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO ~40 KNOTS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (~00-05Z FRI), THEN
DECREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (~06Z FRI) AND FURTHER
DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING (15-18Z FRI),
AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page