720
FXUS63 KGLD 261946
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
146 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 UNTIL
SUNSET THIS EVENING.
- NOTICEABLY COOLER ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50'S.
- A WARMING TREND AND BREEZY S TO SW WINDS WILL FOLLOW, ON
SATURDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, MAINLY EAST OF THE CO-KS BORDER.
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT: AN IMPACT-BASED RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70. AS OF 18Z / NOON MDT, RH READINGS
ARE RISING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GOODLAND CWA AS BREEZY NE WINDS
ADVECT A COOL/MOIST AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30'S TO
LOWER 40'S) SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS. AT THIS
POINT, IT IS EXTREMELY UNLIKELY THAT RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL BE
MET AT ALL, LET ALONE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, BREEZY TO
STRONG NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY POSE A SIGNIFICANT RISK TO
FIRST RESPONDERS, SHOULD ANY FIRES DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY WITH
EXTREMELY DRY FUELS FROM PROLONGED HOT/DRY WEATHER AND WORSENING
DROUGHT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND, THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AS-IS. EXPECT THE STRONGEST NE WINDS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ~23-05Z (5-11P MDT), WHEN LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS ~25-35 MPH AND GUSTS TO ~45 MPH..
DECREASING TO 15-25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT (FRI
MORNING) LOWS IN THE UPPER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: IN THE WAKE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION,
EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.. WITH HIGHS IN THE 50'S. NE
WINDS AT 10-20 MPH DURING THE MORNING WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO
THE E AND SE DURING THE AFTERNOON, REMAINING LIGHT AT 5 TO 15
MPH. EXPECT OVERNIGHT (SAT MORNING) LOWS IN THE UPPER 20'S TO
MID 30'S.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH IN WY-CO (AND
WESTERN FRINGE OF ~1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MS
RIVER VALLEY) WILL FOSTER A WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM ~70F ALONG HWY 283 TO ~80F IN EASTERN CO.. AND BREEZY
(~20-30 MPH G35 MPH) S TO SW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA (EAST
OF THE CO-KS BORDER). FROM A FIRE WEATHER STANDPOINT, GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE
WARMEST/DRIEST CONDITIONS IN EASTERN CO AND BREEZIEST S-SW WINDS
IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA, WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
WITH EASTERN EXTENT FROM THE CO BORDER. EXPECT AN INCREASED FIRE
DANGER, MAINLY IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WHERE BREEZY S-SW WINDS WILL BE [1] PRESENT AND [2] MORE LIKELY
TO OVERLAP WITH A WARMER/DRIER AIRMASS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN FROM
WEST-TO-EAST OVERNIGHT, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT (SUN MORNING) LOWS IN THE 40'S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
SUN-MON: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE TRI-STATE AREA
WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
(CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST), AT THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.. AMIDST A POORLY
DEFINED MSLP TO 850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND, WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80'S ON
BOTH SUN AND MON.
TUE-THU: VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
12Z 03/26 GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE EXHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
DIVERGENCE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS, WITH CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 7,000 TO 10,000 FT AGL. NNE
TO NE WINDS AT 15-25 KNOTS WILL GUST TO 30-35 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON, INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO ~40 KNOTS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (~00-05Z FRI), THEN
DECREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (~06Z FRI) AND FURTHER
DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING (15-18Z FRI),
AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...VINCENT
FIRE WEATHER...KAK
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