892
FXUS63 KGLD 270518
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1118 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NOTICEABLY COOLER ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50'S.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE
AREA ON SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS AND WIND
GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 30-45 MPH COULD LEAD TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER.
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
RH VALUES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 30 AND 40% RANGE AND THE THREAT FOR
DRY LIGHTNING HAS REDUCED TO LESS THAN 5%. GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER HAS GONE FOR THE DAY AND HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RED FLAG
WARNING TO BE CANCELED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT: AN IMPACT-BASED RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70. AS OF 18Z / NOON MDT, RH READINGS
ARE RISING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GOODLAND CWA AS BREEZY NE WINDS
ADVECT A COOL/MOIST AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30'S TO
LOWER 40'S) SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS. AT THIS
POINT, IT IS EXTREMELY UNLIKELY THAT RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL BE
MET AT ALL, LET ALONE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, BREEZY TO
STRONG NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY POSE A SIGNIFICANT RISK TO
FIRST RESPONDERS, SHOULD ANY FIRES DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY WITH
EXTREMELY DRY FUELS FROM PROLONGED HOT/DRY WEATHER AND WORSENING
DROUGHT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND, THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AS-IS. EXPECT THE STRONGEST NE WINDS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ~23-05Z (5-11P MDT), WHEN LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS ~25-35 MPH AND GUSTS TO ~45 MPH..
DECREASING TO 15-25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT (FRI
MORNING) LOWS IN THE UPPER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: IN THE WAKE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION,
EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.. WITH HIGHS IN THE 50'S. NE
WINDS AT 10-20 MPH DURING THE MORNING WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO
THE E AND SE DURING THE AFTERNOON, REMAINING LIGHT AT 5 TO 15
MPH. EXPECT OVERNIGHT (SAT MORNING) LOWS IN THE UPPER 20'S TO
MID 30'S.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH IN WY-CO (AND
WESTERN FRINGE OF ~1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MS
RIVER VALLEY) WILL FOSTER A WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM ~70F ALONG HWY 283 TO ~80F IN EASTERN CO.. AND BREEZY
(~20-30 MPH G35 MPH) S TO SW WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA (EAST
OF THE CO-KS BORDER). FROM A FIRE WEATHER STANDPOINT, GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE
WARMEST/DRIEST CONDITIONS IN EASTERN CO AND BREEZIEST S-SW WINDS
IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA, WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
WITH EASTERN EXTENT FROM THE CO BORDER. EXPECT AN INCREASED FIRE
DANGER, MAINLY IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WHERE BREEZY S-SW WINDS WILL BE [1] PRESENT AND [2] MORE LIKELY
TO OVERLAP WITH A WARMER/DRIER AIRMASS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN FROM
WEST-TO-EAST OVERNIGHT, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT (SUN MORNING) LOWS IN THE 40'S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
SUN-MON: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE TRI-STATE AREA
WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
(CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST), AT THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.. AMIDST A POORLY
DEFINED MSLP TO 850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND, WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80'S ON
BOTH SUN AND MON.
TUE-THU: VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
12Z 03/26 GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE EXHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
DIVERGENCE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT BOTH SITES,
THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z.
THE SPOTTY COVERAGE AND SHORT DURATION ARE WHY THEY ARE NOT IN
THE TAFS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10-20 KTS THROUGH
THE MORNING, AND THEN LOWER GOING INTO THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN SWITCH TO BE
MORE OUT OF EAST/SOUTHEAST.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
UPDATE...CA
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...KAK
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