686
FXUS63 KGLD 270733
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
133 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NOTICEABLY COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50'S.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE
AREA ON SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS AND WIND
GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 30-45 MPH COULD LEAD TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER.
- WARMING BACK UP TO END THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN THE NEXT WEEK.
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 132 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE SEEN SHOWERS AND COLD AIR MOVE INTO THE
AREA. WHILE THE SHOWERS AREN'T DOING TOO MUCH WITH THE DRY AIR IN
THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET, A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE
LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE SOME DROPS OR MAYBE EVEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS. A FEW
SNOW FLAKES MAY ALSO MIX IN BEFORE SUNRISE AS WE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
COOL INTO THE 30S AND TOWARDS FREEZING.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DRIVING
THEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH WHILE THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES
EAST/SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO LOWER AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES MORE OVER THE AREA. AS SUCH, TODAY IS
FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHTER WINDS.
TONIGHT, THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE EAST
WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE THE WINDS AS THE NIGHT GOES ON FROM WEST TO EAST. SPEED
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 15-30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-
50 MPH. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE LOW LEVEL JET CAN BECOME, A FEW
60 MPH GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR EASTERN COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND FREEZING, BUT MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER DEPENDING ON HOW MIXED THE AREA IS BY THE
WINDS.
SATURDAY, THE STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE, ALBEIT
POTENTIALLY A BIT SLOWER AS THE THE LOW BEGINS TO EXPAND. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH AND THE SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
THIS SHOULD HELP LOWER THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE TEENS AS THE
DAY GOES ON. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND BREEZY WINDS WOULD LEAD
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND IS WHY A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED. THERE ARE TWO UNCERTAINTIES THAT LED TO A WATCH
INSTEAD OF A WARNING. THE FIRST IS HOW FAST/FAR EAST THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY FOR
COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THAT THE LOW EXPAND OVER THESE
AREAS AND WEAKENS THE WINDS. THIS WOULD OCCUR BEFORE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD DROP INTO THE MID TEENS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND END THE THREAT. AS FOR THE REST OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, THE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE
AREAS IS THE HUMIDITY. WITH THE COLDER AIR MASS CLOSEST TO THESE
AREAS, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO
DROP BELOW 20%. THIS WOULD PREVENT THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, THOUGH INCREASED FIRE DANGER WOULD REMAIN WITH THE
BREEZY WINDS.
SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD MORE OVER THE AREA AND THE PLAINS. AS IT DOES SO,
WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT TO 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN EASTERN COLORADO AS
SOME 700-500MB MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA, BUT THE VERY DRY LOWER
LEVELS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF IT FROM REACHING THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO 40.
SUNDAY, THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BROADEN ACROSS MORE OF THE
PLAINS AND PUT THE AREA IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OR A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE,
WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE COLUMN. THIS
RIGHT NOW IS KEEPING THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THREAT LOW
IN SPITE OF TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN EASTERN
COLORADO IF A SMALL EMBEDDED WAVE CAN SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE FLOW
AROUND 700MB AND ALLOW FOR GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
SUN-MON: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE TRI-STATE AREA
WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
(CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST), AT THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.. AMIDST A POORLY
DEFINED MSLP TO 850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND, WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80'S ON
BOTH SUN AND MON.
TUE-THU: VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
12Z 03/26 GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE EXHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
DIVERGENCE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT BOTH SITES,
THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z.
THE SPOTTY COVERAGE AND SHORT DURATION ARE WHY THEY ARE NOT IN
THE TAFS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10-20 KTS THROUGH
THE MORNING, AND THEN LOWER GOING INTO THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN SWITCH TO BE
MORE OUT OF EAST/SOUTHEAST.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...KAK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page