830
FXUS63 KGLD 271558
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
958 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NOTICEABLY COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50'S.
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, WHEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY S TO SW WINDS MAY LEAD TO RAPID WILDFIRE GROWTH.
- WARMING BACK UP TO END THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN THE NEXT WEEK.
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
IN COORDINATION/COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS, THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH ON SATURDAY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IN YUMA COUNTY, CO.. WHERE LIGHT WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT/MITIGATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 132 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE SEEN SHOWERS AND COLD AIR MOVE
INTO THE AREA. WHILE THE SHOWERS AREN'T DOING TOO MUCH WITH THE
DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET, A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD BE LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE SOME DROPS OR MAYBE EVEN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY ALSO MIX IN BEFORE SUNRISE
AS WE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY COOL INTO THE 30S AND TOWARDS
FREEZING.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
DRIVING THEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH WHILE THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO LOWER AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES MORE OVER THE AREA. AS SUCH,
TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
TONIGHT, THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE
EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE THE WINDS AS THE NIGHT GOES ON FROM WEST
TO EAST. SPEED ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 15-30 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30- 50 MPH. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE LOW
LEVEL JET CAN BECOME, A FEW 60 MPH GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR EASTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE AROUND FREEZING, BUT MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
DEPENDING ON HOW MIXED THE AREA IS BY THE WINDS.
SATURDAY, THE STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE, ALBEIT
POTENTIALLY A BIT SLOWER AS THE THE LOW BEGINS TO EXPAND. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45
MPH. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH AND THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE 70S AND 80S. THIS SHOULD HELP LOWER THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
INTO THE TEENS AS THE DAY GOES ON. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND
BREEZY WINDS WOULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
IS WHY A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THERE ARE TWO
UNCERTAINTIES THAT LED TO A WATCH INSTEAD OF A WARNING. THE
FIRST IS HOW FAST/FAR EAST THE LOW PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER THAT THE LOW EXPAND OVER THESE AREAS AND WEAKENS
THE WINDS. THIS WOULD OCCUR BEFORE RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD DROP
INTO THE MID TEENS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AND END THE THREAT. AS FOR THE REST OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, THE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE AREAS IS THE
HUMIDITY. WITH THE COLDER AIR MASS CLOSEST TO THESE AREAS,
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO
DROP BELOW 20%. THIS WOULD PREVENT THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, THOUGH INCREASED FIRE DANGER WOULD REMAIN WITH THE
BREEZY WINDS.
SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO SPREAD MORE OVER THE AREA AND THE PLAINS. AS IT
DOES SO, WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT TO 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN
EASTERN COLORADO AS SOME 700-500MB MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA,
BUT THE VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF IT FROM
REACHING THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THE PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO 40.
SUNDAY, THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BROADEN ACROSS MORE OF
THE PLAINS AND PUT THE AREA IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OR A BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE, WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH MOST OF
THE COLUMN. THIS RIGHT NOW IS KEEPING THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THREAT LOW IN SPITE OF TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
80S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN EASTERN COLORADO IF A SMALL EMBEDDED WAVE
CAN SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE FLOW AROUND 700MB AND ALLOW FOR GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 MPH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WILL SEE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA, BUT QPF
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE LIGHT AND IMPACTS MINIMAL.
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN ON
MONDAY. WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
(HIGHEST IN COLORADO) AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS OF 10-20%
(LOWEST IN COLORADO). INSTABILITY REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION. FOR TUESDAY, MODELS ARE TRENDING
FASTER WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT, RESULTING IN A COOLER BUT BREEZY/WINDY DAY. EVEN WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY SEE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST TO BE 15-20%. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES, WITH RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME
SUGGESTIONS THAT THE AREA MAY BE DRY SLOTTED AND THE PRECIP
REMAINS EAST. TEMPERATURES COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP, BUT PROBABILITIES
FOR IMPACTFUL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE INCH ARE CURRENTLY
LESS THAN 5%. NOT EXPECTING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THURSDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
HIGHER PERCENTILE GUSTS ARE AROUND 55 MPH IN COLORADO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HUMIDITY OF 20-25%. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL START WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS ON MONDAY (MID TO UPPER 80S), COOLING OFF SOMEWHAT
ON TUESDAY (70S) BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY (UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S) AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY (60S).
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THEN
COOLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLOUD
COVER CONFINED ABOVE ~8,000 FT AGL. NE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS
WILL WEAKEN TO 5-10 KNOTS AND VEER TO THE E AND SE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SSE OR S AND INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW- LEVEL
JET MAY FOSTER LLWS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE
SATURDAY, DEPENDING ON VERTICAL MIXING / MAGNITUDE OF SURFACE
WINDS. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
35-40 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING, NEAR THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLOUD
COVER CONFINED TO TRANSIENT CIRRUS ABOVE ~18,000 FT AGL. LIGHT
(5-10 KNOT) NE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SE OR SSE AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY FOSTER LLWS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE SATURDAY, DEPENDING ON
VERTICAL MIXING / MAGNITUDE OF SURFACE WINDS. S WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING, NEAR THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ253-
254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
UPDATE...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...VINCENT
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