317
FXUS63 KGLD 280507
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1107 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, WHEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY S TO SW WINDS MAY LEAD TO RAPID WILDFIRE GROWTH.
- WARMING BACK UP TO END THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN THE NEXT WEEK.
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT: A FRESHLY DEPOSITED, SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS
(850 MB TEMPS 0 TO -2C) WILL FOSTER NEAR-AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 50'S. LIGHT (5-15 MPH)NE WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE E AND SE THIS AFTERNOON, FURTHER VEERING TO THE SE-
SSE AND INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 20'S TO
UPPER 30'S. TEMPERATURE TRENDS, INITIALLY DRIVEN BY RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WILL BE MODULATED BY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW
/MIXING/ OVERNIGHT.. MOST PROMINENTLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, WHERE LOWS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING / PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH IN WY-CO (AND WESTERN FRINGE
OF 1035-1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY)
WILL FOSTER A WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60'S TO LOWER 80'S, COOLEST IN EASTERN/LOWER-ELEVATION PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.. WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED COOLER AIRMASS WILL
PERSIST LONGER / REQUIRE MORE TIME TO BE DISPLACED/MODIFIED BY
SOUTHERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW RESIDING OVER NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE AT THE
ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING (~15Z) WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST-TO-
EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, AS THE DEEPENING
LEE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST TOWARD THE CO-KS BORDER. IN KS AND
NE, EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS ~25-35 MPH W/GUSTS ~40-50 MPH DURING
THE LATE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEST-TO-EAST WEAKENING TREND,
ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 AND WEST OF HWY 25 (GOODLAND, ST.
FRANCIS) WHERE WINDS MAY DECREASE TO 15-25 MPH BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FROM WEST-TO-EAST
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE
TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER WESTERN KS AND NE. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT (SUN MORNING) LOWS IN THE 40'S.
IN COORDINATION/COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS, THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH ON SATURDAY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IN YUMA COUNTY CO, WHERE LIGHT WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT/MITIGATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. A
SIMILAR ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE FOR MUCH OF KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE
COUNTIES IN CO.. WESTERN PORTIONS, IN PARTICULAR.. WHERE
CONFIDENCE IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS (WITHIN THE WARNING AREA) IS
LOWEST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SUN-MON: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE
TRI-STATE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MODEST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST), AT
THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE /ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE/ OF THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES.. AMIDST A POORLY DEFINED MSLP TO 850 MB
HEIGHT GRADIENT IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. EXPECT LIGHT
WINDS AND A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80'S TO LOWER 90'S ON SUN-MON. FROM A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER STANDPOINT, LIGHT WINDS ARE THE SOLE
LIMITING FACTOR ON BOTH DAYS.
MON NIGHT-WED: COMPARED TO 24-HR AGO, 12Z 03/27 GFS AND ECMWF
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN FAR BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH INDICATE AN ABRUPT
COOLING TREND / RETURN TO NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE
OF A MON NIGHT-TUE MORNING COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE APT TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, SIMILAR TO RECENT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGES.
THU-FRI: BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. BROADLY SPEAKING,
EXPECT A WARMING/MODERATING TREND. OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 12Z
03/27 GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA LATE
NEXT WEEK; BOTH INDICATE A SPLIT-FLOW SYNOPTIC REGIME IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS AND CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WHERE TWO DISTINCT BRANCHES
OF THE JET (NORTHERN/SOUTHERN) WILL INTERACT. NOTE: FORECAST
CONFIDENCE TYPICALLY DECREASES WITH RANGE. 'BELOW AVERAGE', IN
THIS CONTEXT, IS INTENDED TO COMMUNICATE A FURTHER REDUCTION IN
CONFIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH /INHERENT TO/ INCREASED PATTERN
COMPLEXITY -- E.G. PATTERNS CHARACTERIZED BY CUT-OFF WAVES AND
MULTIBRANCHED JET INTERACTIONS, AMONG OTHERS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE, WITH SPEEDS NEARING 20-25 KTS
AROUND 12Z. THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE LOWERING TO AROUND 10-15
KTS AFTER 00Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO START AROUND
9Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS FORECAST TO REACH 45-50 KTS
ABOUT 200FT ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE MIXING OUT OF THE INVERSION
IN THE MORNING SHOULD END THE WIND SHEAR BY 15Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ253-
254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...KAK
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