905
FXUS63 KGLD 280700
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
100 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY S TO SW WINDS. FIRES
WILL GROW AND SPREAD QUICKLY.
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1253 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS IS SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO INCREASE THE WINDS WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15-20 MPH
OBSERVED FOR SOME LOCALES ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. THE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND THE LOW DEEPENS AND EXPANDS NEAR THE
FRONT RANGE. SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 15-30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 30-45 MPH. THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS THAT HIT 50-60 MPH AS THE INVERSION MIXES OUT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO BE 45 TO 50 KTS. THE WINDS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO LIGHTEN FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEARS THE
AREA. EVEN WITH THE WINDS LIGHTENING, RED FLAG CONDITIONS SHOULD
STILL OCCUR AROUND THE NOON HOUR IN THE WEST AND LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS FOR COUNTIES ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WHILE
THOSE TO THE EAST THAT ARE CLOSER TO THE COLDER AIR MASS WILL LIKELY
ONLY WARM TO AROUND 70.
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LIGHTEN AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA. CLOUD COVER IS ALSO
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES OVER IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE 40S, WITH MAYBE A
FEW 30S FOR THOSE WHO STAY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER RIDGING/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS
FORECAST TO LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S. LOCALES IN THE EAST MAY BE ABLE TO REACH 90. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME MORE RECORD TEMPERATURES TO FALL. WHILE HOT AND DRY,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY UNLIKELY WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS FORECAST FOR THE AREA. ENSEMBLES DON'T SHOW TOO MUCH
VARIABILITY, SO IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE LOW WOULD SHIFT ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE FIRE CHANCES.
MONDAY, THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MORE OVER THE PLAINS. WITH THIS, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE A BIT HOTTER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S IN THE WEST AND 90S IN THE
EAST. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK
RECORDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WITH NO MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE MAIN INHIBITOR FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE THE WINDS. RIGHT NOW,
THE SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25
MPH RANGE. THAT BEING SAID, ENSEMBLE 500MB SPREAD CHARTS SUGGEST
THAT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MAY PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. IN THIS CASE, THE WINDS MAY BE STRONGER AS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW COULD THEN SHIFT OFF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH STRONGER WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE. GIVEN HOW FAR NORTH THE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE, THE WIND GUSTS WOULD PROBABLY MAX
OUT AT 35-40 MPH. BUT THAT WOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND HIGH FIRE DANGER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SUN-MON: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE
TRI-STATE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MODEST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST), AT
THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE /ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE/ OF THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES.. AMIDST A POORLY DEFINED MSLP TO 850 MB
HEIGHT GRADIENT IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. EXPECT LIGHT
WINDS AND A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80'S TO LOWER 90'S ON SUN-MON. FROM A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER STANDPOINT, LIGHT WINDS ARE THE SOLE
LIMITING FACTOR ON BOTH DAYS.
MON NIGHT-WED: COMPARED TO 24-HR AGO, 12Z 03/27 GFS AND ECMWF
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN FAR BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH INDICATE AN ABRUPT
COOLING TREND / RETURN TO NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE
OF A MON NIGHT-TUE MORNING COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE APT TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, SIMILAR TO RECENT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGES.
THU-FRI: BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. BROADLY SPEAKING,
EXPECT A WARMING/MODERATING TREND. OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 12Z
03/27 GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA LATE
NEXT WEEK; BOTH INDICATE A SPLIT-FLOW SYNOPTIC REGIME IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS AND CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WHERE TWO DISTINCT BRANCHES
OF THE JET (NORTHERN/SOUTHERN) WILL INTERACT. NOTE: FORECAST
CONFIDENCE TYPICALLY DECREASES WITH RANGE. 'BELOW AVERAGE', IN
THIS CONTEXT, IS INTENDED TO COMMUNICATE A FURTHER REDUCTION IN
CONFIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH /INHERENT TO/ INCREASED PATTERN
COMPLEXITY -- E.G. PATTERNS CHARACTERIZED BY CUT-OFF WAVES AND
MULTIBRANCHED JET INTERACTIONS, AMONG OTHERS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE, WITH SPEEDS NEARING 20-25 KTS
AROUND 12Z. THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE LOWERING TO AROUND 10-15
KTS AFTER 00Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO START AROUND
9Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS FORECAST TO REACH 45-50 KTS
ABOUT 200FT ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE MIXING OUT OF THE INVERSION
IN THE MORNING SHOULD END THE WIND SHEAR BY 15Z.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1253 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
--------------------------------------------------------
SUNDAY, MARCH 29TH:
GOODLAND, KS - RECORD IS 88 (1943), FORECAST IS 87.
HILL CITY, KS - RECORD IS 91 (1943), FORECAST IS 88.
MCCOOK, NE - RECORD IS 92 (1943), FORECAST IS 88.
BURLINGTON, CO - RECORD IS 86 (2021), FORECAST IS 85.
--------------------------------------------------------
MONDAY, MARCH 30TH:
GOODLAND, KS - RECORD IS 88 (2010), FORECAST IS 89.
HILL CITY, KS - RECORD IS 93 (1943), FORECAST IS 93.
MCCOOK, NE - RECORD IS 93 (1943), FORECAST IS 92.
BURLINGTON, CO - RECORD IS 87 (2010), FORECAST IS 87.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9
PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-
027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ253-254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9
PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...KAK
CLIMATE...KAK
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