556
FXUS63 KGLD 291048
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
448 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TOMORROW FOR EASTERN COLORADO.
- 20-40% CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT IF THESE SHOWERS OCCURRED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE
CENTER OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS, ALONG WITH
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION, HAS CAUSED WINDS TO LOWER ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH. AS WE GET INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS, THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT UNDERNEATH IT. MEANWHILE, THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL THEN BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
GRADIENT AND SEE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-20 MPH. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IS A CONCERN WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
(RH BELOW 15%), BUT THE ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO KEEP WINDS ABOVE
THE SURFACE SOMEWHAT WEAK. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH
FAIRLY INFREQUENT. STILL, EASTERN COLORADO AND MAYBE ADJACENT
COUNTIES TO THE EAST COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STILL BE NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. BUT THE SLIGHT DEPRESSING OF THE UPPER RIDGING PATTERN
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO STOP US FROM HEATING TO NEAR 90. TONIGHT, LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AGAIN AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH IT FORECAST TO BE BROAD, WINDS SHOULD
BE AROUND OR LOWER THAN 10 MPH. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD HELP
PREVENT THE AREA FROM COOLING COMPLETELY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
STAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.
MONDAY, NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD HELP THE AREA HEAT UP A BIT MORE COMPARED TO SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE UPPER 80S AND CLOSE TO RECORDS
AGAIN. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE DRY PATTERN GOING WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN.
WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WITH THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE POTENTIAL ISSUE IS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. FOR NOW, IT IS FORECAST TO START MOVING IN
AND CHANGING THE PATTERN LATE IN THE DAY, WHICH SHOULDN'T IMPACT
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER, IF IT MOVES FASTER LIKE
500MB SPREAD CHARTS ARE SUGGESTING, THEN IT COULD HELP TILT THE LOW
EARLY. NOT ONLY COULD THIS CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AT THE SURFACE, IT COULD HELP WINDS BETWEEN
850-700MB INCREASE MORE TO 25-30 KTS INSTEAD OF AROUND 15-20 KTS. IF
THIS OCCURS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. FOR NOW, NO PRODUCT HAS BEEN
ISSUED AS CONFIDENCE IS ONLY ABOUT 40%. FOR NOW, MOST OF THE CHANGES
REMAIN FORECAST TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THE SURFACE
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HELP A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AS
IT DOES SO, WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND IT AND
TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT MORE INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. ENSEMBLES SHOW VERY FEW SCENARIOS WHERE
THE FRONT DELAYS OR STAYS A BIT MORE NORTH AND CLOSE TO THE AREA. IN
THESE SCENARIOS, HIGHS COULD BE MORE IN THE 60S AND 70S. EITHER WAY,
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE
20% AND PROHIBIT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS ISN'T TO SAY
THERE WON'T BE INCREASED FIRE DANGER AS WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO BE 20-30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. GIVEN
RECENT EVENTS, IT WOUDN'T BE UNREASONABLE FOR BOTH THE GUSTS AND
WINDS TO BE A BIT STRONGER AT TIMES. IF THE WINDS DO GET STRONGER,
THERE COULD BE SOME CONCERN FOR BLOWING DUST.
FINALLY, TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY BRING A GLIMMER OF HOPE
FOR THE AREA. WHILE THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED
THROUGH, GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES AND TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS COULD PROVIDE SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT
AND SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE NOT FORECAST TO BE MUCH, THIS
WOULD GIVE THE AREA A CHANCE TO SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME OF IT MAY ALSO FALL AS SNOW WITH
AMOUNTS BELOW AN INCH. THE OVERALL CHANCE IS STILL ABOUT 20-40% AS
THE PERSISTENT DRY AIR WE HAVE HAD AT THE SURFACE WILL BE HARD TO
OVERCOME. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL SEE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LOCAL
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH EACH. ONE WAVE MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY WITH
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER AND WETTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S WHILE LOWER PERCENTILES HAVE UPPER 30S. ON THE
PRECIPITATION SIDE, SNOW IS FAVORED IN THE MORNING WITH A CHANGE
TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON. MEAN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN 0.10"-0.20" AND THERE IS A 20% PROBABILITY
OF 1" OR GREATER OF SNOW, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. IF SNOW
DOES MATERIALIZE, IT WOULD BE A WET SNOW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MELTING OCCURRING. IMPACTS TO ROADS FOR TRAVEL MAY BE MINIMIZED
BY THE RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. NEXT
ONE GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ALL THE WAY TO
THE MEXICAN BORDER. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
BISECT THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH LIGHT
SNOW FURTHER WEST AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FRIDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY FORECASTS ARE MINIMAL ALONG THE FRONT, SO DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A SEVERE RISK AT THIS TIME. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE WITH LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE IN
COLORADO. WITH THE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW THE AREA
WILL GET DRY SLOTTED WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG/EAST OF THE
SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
TIMING WILL BE KEY SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE FRONT IN LATER
MODEL RUNS. SATURDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EAST OF THE AREA.
WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW
PRESSURE IN COLORADO AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTING IN
A PERSISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THURSDAY APPEARS TO HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 MPH AT TIMES,
AS WELL AS POST FRONTAL WINDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FIRE
WEATHER WILL NOT BE A CONCERN UNTIL SATURDAY, WHEN AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS TO AROUND 20% IN COLORADO. OTHERWISE,
HUMIDITY STAYS WELL ABOVE THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY (40S), NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY (60S
TO LOWER 70S), THEN NEAR NORMAL ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(60S). LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH EITHER CLEAR SKIES OR CLOUDS ABOVE 10000FT. THERE
COULD BE SOME LINGER LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH 14Z WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 30-40 KTS AT 200-400FT, BUT RECENT OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE KGLD RADAR HAVE SHOWN FREQUENT SUB 30KT GUSTS THE PASS
FEW HOURS. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25
KTS, ESPECIALLY AFTER 16Z. WINDS AFTER 00Z ARE FORECAST TO
LIGHTEN BELOW 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1253 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
--------------------------------------------------------
SUNDAY, MARCH 29TH:
GOODLAND, KS - RECORD IS 88 (1943), FORECAST IS 85.
HILL CITY, KS - RECORD IS 91 (1943), FORECAST IS 88.
MCCOOK, NE - RECORD IS 92 (1943), FORECAST IS 88.
BURLINGTON, CO - RECORD IS 86 (2021), FORECAST IS 84.
--------------------------------------------------------
MONDAY, MARCH 30TH:
GOODLAND, KS - RECORD IS 88 (2010), FORECAST IS 87.
HILL CITY, KS - RECORD IS 93 (1943), FORECAST IS 92.
MCCOOK, NE - RECORD IS 93 (1943), FORECAST IS 89.
BURLINGTON, CO - RECORD IS 87 (2010), FORECAST IS 86.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK
CLIMATE...KAK
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