271
FXUS63 KGLD 291929
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
129 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TOMORROW FOR EASTERN COLORADO.
- 20-40% CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT IF THESE SHOWERS OCCURRED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST UNDER THE NEARLY ZONE FLOW
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING AND LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEGINNING AROUND SUNSET,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER
LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE START THE WORK WEEK
WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE
LOW TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS; HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE AN EVEN
BIGGER LIMITING FACTOR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOCALES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THOSE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER WILL
SEE WINDS CLOSER TO 20 MPH. BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE THREE
OR MORE HOURS OF THOSE CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN OUR COLORADO COUNTIES
AND PERHAPS GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. DUE TO THE WINDS AND
CONCERN FOR CONDITIONS ALIGNING, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT
WILL WORK IT'S WAY SOUTH INTO THE AREA DROPPING TEMPERATURES IN TO
THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 40S OUT AHEAD OF IT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (20%) OF LIGHT RAIN AND MAYBE SOME SNOW FLURRIES MIXED IN
OVERNIGHT MONDAY GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70 ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER
INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
A COOLER DAY IS IN STORE FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAVORING A BAND OF
MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH OVER THE AREA SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT,
HELPING TO BOOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
BEFORE WE SEE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WESTERN GULF
DURING THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE AREA COULD SEE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF MOISTURE, PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN.
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL INTO
THE LOW 30S OVERNIGHT; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RECENT WARM
TEMPERATURES THE GROUND WILL BE TOO WARM FOR MUCH TO STICK
SHOULD SNOW OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL SEE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LOCAL
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH EACH. ONE WAVE MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY WITH
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER AND WETTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S WHILE LOWER PERCENTILES HAVE UPPER 30S. ON THE
PRECIPITATION SIDE, SNOW IS FAVORED IN THE MORNING WITH A CHANGE
TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON. MEAN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN 0.10"-0.20" AND THERE IS A 20% PROBABILITY
OF 1" OR GREATER OF SNOW, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. IF SNOW
DOES MATERIALIZE, IT WOULD BE A WET SNOW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MELTING OCCURRING. IMPACTS TO ROADS FOR TRAVEL MAY BE MINIMIZED
BY THE RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. NEXT
ONE GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ALL THE WAY TO
THE MEXICAN BORDER. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
BISECT THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH LIGHT
SNOW FURTHER WEST AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FRIDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY FORECASTS ARE MINIMAL ALONG THE FRONT, SO DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A SEVERE RISK AT THIS TIME. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE WITH LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE IN
COLORADO. WITH THE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW THE AREA
WILL GET DRY SLOTTED WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG/EAST OF THE
SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
TIMING WILL BE KEY SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE FRONT IN LATER
MODEL RUNS. SATURDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EAST OF THE AREA.
WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW
PRESSURE IN COLORADO AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTING IN
A PERSISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THURSDAY APPEARS TO HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 MPH AT TIMES,
AS WELL AS POST FRONTAL WINDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FIRE
WEATHER WILL NOT BE A CONCERN UNTIL SATURDAY, WHEN AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS TO AROUND 20% IN COLORADO. OTHERWISE,
HUMIDITY STAYS WELL ABOVE THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY (40S), NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY (60S
TO LOWER 70S), THEN NEAR NORMAL ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(60S). LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ~06Z
TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-16 KTS AND GUSTS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WINDS SHIFT TO BE OUT
OF THE EAST THEN SOUTHWEST BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY LATE MONDAY MORNING. AFTER 06Z, CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 170-200 KFT
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1253 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
--------------------------------------------------------
SUNDAY, MARCH 29TH:
GOODLAND, KS - RECORD IS 88 (1943), FORECAST IS 85.
HILL CITY, KS - RECORD IS 91 (1943), FORECAST IS 88.
MCCOOK, NE - RECORD IS 92 (1943), FORECAST IS 88.
BURLINGTON, CO - RECORD IS 86 (2021), FORECAST IS 84.
--------------------------------------------------------
MONDAY, MARCH 30TH:
GOODLAND, KS - RECORD IS 88 (2010), FORECAST IS 86.
HILL CITY, KS - RECORD IS 93 (1943), FORECAST IS 90.
MCCOOK, NE - RECORD IS 93 (1943), FORECAST IS 86.
BURLINGTON, CO - RECORD IS 87 (2010), FORECAST IS 85.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KMK
CLIMATE...KAK
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