963
FXUS63 KGLD 292002
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
202 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TOMORROW FOR EASTERN COLORADO.
- 20-40% CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT IF THESE SHOWERS OCCURRED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST UNDER THE NEARLY ZONE FLOW
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING AND LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEGINNING AROUND SUNSET,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER
LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE START THE WORK WEEK
WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE
LOW TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS; HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE AN EVEN
BIGGER LIMITING FACTOR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOCALES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THOSE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER WILL
SEE WINDS CLOSER TO 20 MPH. BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE THREE
OR MORE HOURS OF THOSE CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN OUR COLORADO COUNTIES
AND PERHAPS GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. DUE TO THE WINDS AND
CONCERN FOR CONDITIONS ALIGNING, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT
WILL WORK IT'S WAY SOUTH INTO THE AREA DROPPING TEMPERATURES IN TO
THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 40S OUT AHEAD OF IT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (20%) OF LIGHT RAIN AND MAYBE SOME SNOW FLURRIES MIXED IN
OVERNIGHT MONDAY GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70 ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER
INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
A COOLER DAY IS IN STORE FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAVORING A BAND OF
MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH OVER THE AREA SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT,
HELPING TO BOOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
BEFORE WE SEE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WESTERN GULF
DURING THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE AREA COULD SEE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF MOISTURE, PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN.
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL INTO
THE LOW 30S OVERNIGHT; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RECENT WARM
TEMPERATURES THE GROUND WILL BE TOO WARM FOR MUCH TO STICK
SHOULD SNOW OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
OUR BEST CHANCES TO SEE PRECIPITATION IN THE CWA (COUNTY WARNING
AREA) ARE LOOKING TO BE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN OF GUSTY THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
FOR WEDNESDAY LOOKING AT THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THERE IS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE STAYING
AROUND THE 40S. ONE THING TO NOTE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE IS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SPREAD OF TEMPERATURES. THE 10TH PERCENTILE IS
HANGING AROUND THE LOWER 30S AND THE MEAN (AVERAGE) AROUND MID 40S
AND THE 90TH AROUND LOWER 50S. SOME HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ARE RAIN AND SNOW. FOR GENERAL MOISTURE, THE AVERAGE IS
SHOWING AMOUNTS OF 0.10" - 0.15". THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW
(20%) FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SEEING 0.5". ASSUMING IF THE
TEMPERATURES TREND TO BE COLDER THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SEEING 1"
OR HIGHER IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. FOR THE TIMING OF
THIS EVENT, THERE WILL BE SNOW IN THE MORNING THEN TRANSITIONING TO
RAIN FROM MIDDAY TO THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY WARMS UP MORE THAN
WEDNESDAY AND BECOMES MORE DRY AND GUSTY BUT NO CONCERN FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA STARTING ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO
THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA
THE TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO GET BELOW FREEZING WITH THE AVERAGE
STAYING AROUND THE LOW 30S WITH COLDER TEMPS WEST OF HWY 27. THERE
ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE SNOW THREAT IS
PRETTY LOW WITH A 20% OF EXCEEDING 0.01" EAST OF HWY 385. WEST OF
385 THERE IS HIGHER PERCENTAGES OF 30% - 45%. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OUT OF THE CWA. HOWEVER THIS COLD FRONT IS FAR
OUT IN THE FORECAST SO TIMING WILL BE KEY AS TIME PROGRESSES. AS FOR
SATURDAY CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS
ESPECIALLY OVER YUMA, KIT CARSON, AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN CO. THERE
IS A 50% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 40 MPH AND A SMALL 20% - 30% OF
EXCEEDING 50 MPH. SUNDAY LOOKS TO SEE WARM TEMPERATURES (50S - 60S)
ALONG WITH LOW PRECIPATION CHANCES (10%).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ~06Z
TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-16 KTS AND GUSTS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WINDS SHIFT TO BE OUT
OF THE EAST THEN SOUTHWEST BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY LATE MONDAY MORNING. AFTER 06Z, CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 170-200 KFT
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1253 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
--------------------------------------------------------
SUNDAY, MARCH 29TH:
GOODLAND, KS - RECORD IS 88 (1943), FORECAST IS 85.
HILL CITY, KS - RECORD IS 91 (1943), FORECAST IS 88.
MCCOOK, NE - RECORD IS 92 (1943), FORECAST IS 88.
BURLINGTON, CO - RECORD IS 86 (2021), FORECAST IS 84.
--------------------------------------------------------
MONDAY, MARCH 30TH:
GOODLAND, KS - RECORD IS 88 (2010), FORECAST IS 86.
HILL CITY, KS - RECORD IS 93 (1943), FORECAST IS 90.
MCCOOK, NE - RECORD IS 93 (1943), FORECAST IS 86.
BURLINGTON, CO - RECORD IS 87 (2010), FORECAST IS 85.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...KMK/HOLDREN
AVIATION...KMK
CLIMATE...KAK
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