864
FXUS63 KGLD 301612
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1012 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT ARE A BIT
LESS LIKELY COMPARED TO PRIOR FORECASTS.
- THERE IS ABOUT A 65% CHANCE THE AREA SEES SOME PRECIPITATION
EITHER LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. THAT DOES LEAVE A 35% CHANCE WE GET
DRY SLOTTED AND NO PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1253 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE UNITED
STATES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE AREA AND CALMED THE WINDS. THIS IS FORECAST
TO BE THE STORY FOR TODAY WITH THE BROAD LOW KEEPING WINDS LIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY. COMPARED TO PRIOR FORECASTS, THE CHANCES FOR WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH (THAT COULD HAVE ALLOWED FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER) HAVE DROPPED TO 25% OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SEEMS TO
BE DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH STAYING CLOSE THE THE U.S/CANADA BORDER
AND NOT DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH. AS SUCH, THERE IS NOTHING DURING THE
DAY THAT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN EITHER THE PRESSURE OR HEIGHT
GRADIENTS. ADDING TO THE WIND DAMPENING, A SIZABLE MASS OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND PROVIDE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT MIXING
WHICH WILL HAMPER BOTH THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES. WE COULD STILL
SEE RECORD TEMPERATURES IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
BUT THE CHANCES HAVE LOWERED A BIT. HIGHS REMAIN FORECAST TO REACH
THE 80S.
TONIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS IT DOES SO, IT IS FORECAST TO HELP PUSH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS AND INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GO FROM OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH TO
OUT OF THE NORTH AT 15-25 BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION WITH AN 850MB LOW MOVING IN AS WELL,
BUT THE CHANCE IS LESS THAN 10% DUE TO THE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE.
WE'LL HAVE UPPER LEVEL AND SLOWLY INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT
NOT ENOUGH NEAR THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. BEST
CHANCE WOULD BE NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP MOST OF THE
AREA IN THE 40S OR HIGHER. THAT BEING SAID, NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA COULD SEE THE 30S AS THEY EXPERIENCE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH
THE FRONT.
TUESDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE POST FRONTAL WITH BREEZY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE
50S AND 60S WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-
45 MPH. THE REASON THE GUSTS AREN'T CURRENTLY HIGHER IS THAT THE 850-
700MB LOW IS FORECAST TO STILL BE NEAR/OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND KEEP
FLOW SOMEWHAT LIGHT AT THIS LEVEL. THAT BEING SAID, FRONTS HAVE BEEN
OVER PERFORMING SO STILL BE CAUTIOUS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 50 TO
60 MPH. A MIX OF CLOUDY AND CLEAR SKIES IS ALSO FORECAST TUESDAY
WITH PERSISTENT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE. NO HAZARDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 25% AND THE LOW
LEVEL BEING DRY ENOUGH TO HINDER PRECIPITATION. STILL, BE ALERT AS
THE STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER.
TUESDAY EVENING, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COMBINE
WITH SLIGHT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO FINALLY MOISTEN THE
ENTIRE AIR COLUMN. THIS COULD GIVE THE AREA BOTH A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AND MAYBE EVEN SOME FOG. THAT BEING SAID,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY REMAIN AROUND 30% OR LESS OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER FORCING FROM EITHER A SURFACE LOW OR UPPER
TROUGH FAR ENOUGH WEST OF THE AREA. IF PRECIPITATION DOES FORM, IT
COULD BECOME A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR FREEZING. CHANCES COULD INCREASE IF THE SYSTEM MOVES A BIT
FASTER COMPARED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW.
I CAN'T BELIEVE I GET TO WRITE THIS, BUT THE DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO WING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST. AS IT DOES SO, IT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A
SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS STRENGTHENING LOW IS
FORECAST TO GIVE US ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AS BOTH THE HEIGHT AND
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. CURRENTLY, WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-
50 MPH, HIGHEST IN EASTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 50S AND 60S AGAIN WITH LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE AND CONTINUED
CLOUD COVER.
ALRIGHT NOW FOR THE PRECIPITATION. AS USUAL FOR THIS AREA, THE
BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE DREADED DRY SLOT. OUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS LOW TRACKS. IF THE LOW ENDS UP
PUSHING NORTH AND TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA, WE WILL LIKELY BECOME
DRY SLOTTED AND HAVE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. THIS LOOKS TO BE
ABOUT A 35% CHANCE RIGHT NOW. IF THE LOW SKIRTS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND AT FORECAST PACE, THE AREA COULD RECEIVE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO MAYBE A FEW TENTHS OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD FAVOR NORTH OF I-70. THIS HAS ABOUT A 55% CHANCE OF
OCCURRING. THE OTHER 10% IS THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH AND SLOWS OR WRAPS
IN ON ITSELF. IN THIS SCENARIO, AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER AND NEAR
HALF AN INCH, ESPECIALLY AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. FOR NOW, I AM GOING WITH THE LIKELY SCENARIO, BUT AM WORRIED
ABOUT THE DRY SCENARIO. WITH THE GEFS ENSEMBLE TRYING TO DRAG THE
TROUGH NORTH AND A LITTLE FASTER, I AM WORRIED WE WILL GET LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. IN REGARD TO SNOW, ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LESS THAN
AN INCH AND LIKELY MELT QUICKLY IN ALMOST ANY SOLUTION. WE JUST
AREN'T FORECAST TO HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR AND THE GROUND IS FAIRLY
WARM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
MAY SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH AN EMBEDDED
WEAK WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.
THERE IS NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH SO CONVECTION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. MEAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE AROUND 0.05" WHERE
ANY SHOWER DEVELOPS. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND 40-50 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH FALLING
PRESSURE IN COLORADO AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONT, BUT MODELS SHOWING ONLY 30-40 MPH
AT THIS TIME. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
FRIDAY, BUT BY AND LARGE THE AREA IS DRY SLOTTED WITH THE UPPER
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE COLD FRONT
WELL TO THE SOUTH. FRIDAY LOOKS BREEZY TO WINDY WITH A 70-80 KT
JET MAX MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER,
MODELS SHOW ONLY LIMITED MIXING TO AROUND 5 KFT WHICH DOES NOT
TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. AS A RESULT, THEY SHOW ONLY
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND IF
DEEPER MIXING OCCURS COULD SEE THOSE STRONGER WINDS OF 50 MPH OR
HIGHER AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE WEEKEND, WILL
SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL FLOW ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DIGS
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION EITHER
DAY. MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS TO
15-20%, BUT WINDS ARE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD START SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON THURSDAY (60S), COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY (50S AND 60S), THEN WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY (LOWER 70S).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME VIRGA SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT, OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES
MAY REACH THE GROUND, AND INCREASED ICING IS POSSIBLE. TOMORROW
MORNING, AROUND 11-12Z, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH, LEADING TO A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS. THESE SHOULD
WEAKEN BY 18Z.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1253 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. UPDATED 3/30/2026
--------------------------------------------------------
MONDAY, MARCH 30TH:
GOODLAND, KS - RECORD IS 88 (2010), FORECAST IS 86.
HILL CITY, KS - RECORD IS 93 (1943), FORECAST IS 89.
MCCOOK, NE - RECORD IS 93 (1943), FORECAST IS 88.
BURLINGTON, CO - RECORD IS 87 (2010), FORECAST IS 85.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...KAK
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