668
FXUS63 KGLD 301805
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1205 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT ARE A BIT
LESS LIKELY COMPARED TO PRIOR FORECASTS.
- THERE IS ABOUT A 40% CHANCE THE AREA SEES SOME PRECIPITATION
EITHER LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, AND A 60%+ CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, WEAK 500 MB DISTURBANCE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LEADING TO SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS. OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES MAY REACH
THE SURFACE, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
CLIMBING TODAY, AND ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S WHERE
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS AND 80S WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK, LIMITING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE FRONT LOOKS TO ENTER AROUND 11Z AND BRING WITH IT GUSTS
AROUND 35 KTS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS
OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 83, BETWEEN 12-16Z. THE THREAT FOR
BLOWING DUST IS LESS THAN 2%. LOWS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO COOL INTO
THE MID 40S TONIGHT, THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW'S HIGHS
WILL BE HEAVILY STUNTED BY THE COLD FRONT, LIKELY TOPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
TOMORROW EVENING, THE 500 MB VORTICITY PERSIST AND SOME EASTERLY
FLOW AT 850 MB MAY BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THIS COULD BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
70. IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL START OFF AS RAIN, BUT AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES, SNOW WILL MIX IN. DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES,
AIR TEMPERATURES ONLY HOVERING AROUND FREEZING, AND VERY MINIMAL
QPF, NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
THERE'S A SLIM (<2%) CHANCE BRIDGES THAT REMAIN WET AS TEMPERATURES
FALL AROUND FREEZING WILL SEE PATCHY BLACK ICE.
WEDNESDAY, THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT
IN THE 50S TO MID 60S, COOLEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA, AS A 500 MB
TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL GIVE US INCREASING FORCING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AN 850 MB LOW FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO PULLS IN
MORE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. POPS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
PEAKING AROUND 21-06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ENTIRE CWA HAS A
GREATER THAN 60% CHANCE AT SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION. AS IT STANDS,
THERE'S A 50% CHANCE MOST OF THE CWA RECEIVES 0.1 INCH OF QPF BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
SOUTH OF U.S. 40, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO MIX
INTO THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THERE IS ALSO A 15% CHANCE SNOW STARTS MIXING IN ALONG AND NORTH OF
U.S. 34 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WE'RE ALSO WATCHING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLACK ICE FORMING THURSDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
FALL TO AROUND FREEZING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
MAY SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH AN EMBEDDED
WEAK WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.
THERE IS NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH SO CONVECTION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. MEAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE AROUND 0.05" WHERE
ANY SHOWER DEVELOPS. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND 40-50 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH FALLING
PRESSURE IN COLORADO AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONT, BUT MODELS SHOWING ONLY 30-40 MPH
AT THIS TIME. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
FRIDAY, BUT BY AND LARGE THE AREA IS DRY SLOTTED WITH THE UPPER
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE COLD FRONT
WELL TO THE SOUTH. FRIDAY LOOKS BREEZY TO WINDY WITH A 70-80 KT
JET MAX MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER,
MODELS SHOW ONLY LIMITED MIXING TO AROUND 5 KFT WHICH DOES NOT
TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. AS A RESULT, THEY SHOW ONLY
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND IF
DEEPER MIXING OCCURS COULD SEE THOSE STRONGER WINDS OF 50 MPH OR
HIGHER AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE WEEKEND, WILL
SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL FLOW ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DIGS
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION EITHER
DAY. MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS TO
15-20%, BUT WINDS ARE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD START SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON THURSDAY (60S), COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY (50S AND 60S), THEN WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY (LOWER 70S).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME VIRGA SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT, OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES
MAY REACH THE GROUND, AND INCREASED ICING IS POSSIBLE. TOMORROW
MORNING, AROUND 11-12Z, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH, LEADING TO A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS. THESE SHOULD
WEAKEN BY 18Z.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1253 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. UPDATED 3/30/2026
--------------------------------------------------------
MONDAY, MARCH 30TH:
GOODLAND, KS - RECORD IS 88 (2010), FORECAST IS 86.
HILL CITY, KS - RECORD IS 93 (1943), FORECAST IS 89.
MCCOOK, NE - RECORD IS 93 (1943), FORECAST IS 88.
BURLINGTON, CO - RECORD IS 87 (2010), FORECAST IS 85.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...KAK
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