090
FXUS63 KGLD 302028
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
228 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT ARE A BIT
LESS LIKELY COMPARED TO PRIOR FORECASTS.
- THERE IS ABOUT A 40% CHANCE THE AREA SEES SOME PRECIPITATION
EITHER LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, AND A 60%+ CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, WEAK 500 MB DISTURBANCE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LEADING TO SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS. OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES MAY REACH
THE SURFACE, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
CLIMBING TODAY, AND ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S WHERE
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS AND 80S WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK, LIMITING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE FRONT LOOKS TO ENTER AROUND 11Z AND BRING WITH IT GUSTS
AROUND 35 KTS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS
OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 83, BETWEEN 12-16Z. THE THREAT FOR
BLOWING DUST IS LESS THAN 2%. LOWS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO COOL INTO
THE MID 40S TONIGHT, THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW'S HIGHS
WILL BE HEAVILY STUNTED BY THE COLD FRONT, LIKELY TOPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
TOMORROW EVENING, THE 500 MB VORTICITY PERSIST AND SOME EASTERLY
FLOW AT 850 MB MAY BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THIS COULD BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
70. IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL START OFF AS RAIN, BUT AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES, SNOW WILL MIX IN. DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES,
AIR TEMPERATURES ONLY HOVERING AROUND FREEZING, AND VERY MINIMAL
QPF, NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
THERE'S A SLIM (<2%) CHANCE BRIDGES THAT REMAIN WET AS TEMPERATURES
FALL AROUND FREEZING WILL SEE PATCHY BLACK ICE.
WEDNESDAY, THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT
IN THE 50S TO MID 60S, COOLEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA, AS A 500 MB
TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL GIVE US INCREASING FORCING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AN 850 MB LOW FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO PULLS IN
MORE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. POPS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
PEAKING AROUND 21-06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ENTIRE CWA HAS A
GREATER THAN 60% CHANCE AT SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION. AS IT STANDS,
THERE'S A 50% CHANCE MOST OF THE CWA RECEIVES 0.1 INCH OF QPF BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
SOUTH OF U.S. 40, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO MIX
INTO THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THERE IS ALSO A 15% CHANCE SNOW STARTS MIXING IN ALONG AND NORTH OF
U.S. 34 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WE'RE ALSO WATCHING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLACK ICE FORMING THURSDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
FALL TO AROUND FREEZING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
THURSDAY MORNING THERE IS STILL SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
WEDENSDAY'S SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE HIGH
CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA).
THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.01" ALONG WITH A 50% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING 0.05" NORTH OF I-70 AND EAST OF HWY 83. THEN ONCE THE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT AROUND MIDDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S, ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. ESPECIALLY FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOWER TEENS.
MOVING INTO FRIDAY THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA. THERE IS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BEGINS TO MOVE
FROM THE ROCKIES BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVES OUT TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A JET MAX IN THE UPPER LEVELS LOOKING TO BE
AROUND 70-85 KTS. THERE IS 5-10 KFT OF MIXING SO THE POTENTIAL IS
LOW FOR NOW TO SEE THE HIGHER WINDS TO MIX DOWN. THERE IS AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT LOOKS TO SET UP OVER
THE CO/KS/OK BOARDER.
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS,
COOLER TEMPS, SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THERE IS 50% CHANCE OF SEEING WINDS GREATER THAN 35 MPH FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. YUMA, KIT CARSON, AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO LOOK TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE (45%) OF SEEING WINDS
GREATER THAN 45 MPH. THE PEAK WINDS LOOK TO BE MID-DAY FRIDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
DECREASING POPS TO AROUND 10-15% ALONG AND NORTH OF US 34 AND EVEN
LESS TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS THE PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE CWA BEING IN
THE DRY SLOT OF THE SYSTEM. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION IS YUMA COUNTY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.01".
ONE CONCERN/SCENARIO TO LOOK AT IF WE STILL STAY IN THE DRY SLOT IS
THAT THE AREA SOUTH OF I-70 AND WEST OF HWY 83 HAVE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND THE UPPER TEENS. THE WIND GUSTS ARE IN THE
RANGE OF 30-45 MPH THERE COULD BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IF THE
TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER RH AND HIGHER WINDS. THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE WINDS IS SHOWING 60 MPH GUSTS AROUND THE BOARDER
OF YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES. THE 10TH PERCENTILE SHOWS THERE
BEING AROUND 35-40 MPH GUSTS. THIS SPREAD BETWEEN THE 10TH/90TH
PERCENTILES INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS BEING IN THE 40-60 MPH
RANGE.
SATURDAY THE WIND GUSTS RETURN WITH THE MEAN VALUES SHOWING 35-45
MPH WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS BEING IN THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. LOOKING AT THE SPREAD THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN REACHING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SINCE THERE IS ABOUT A 30 MPH DIFFERENCE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL CAUSE RH VALUES TO REBOUND ONLY
DRYING OUT 20-30% LOWERING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL OFF QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
THE LOW TEMPERATURE BEING LESS THAN 32 DEGREES IS 50% IN THE EASTERN
CWA AND MOVING TO 95% IN YUMA COUNTY. AS FOR THE HIGHS THE STAY COOL
IN THE UPPER 50S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS REMAIN TO BE PRETTY CALM WITH
WINDS STAYING IN THE CALM TO 10 MPH RANGE. ONE THING TO NOTE THOUGH
IS BOTH DAYS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BEING VERY DRY. RH VALUES ARE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. GRANTED THIS IS SEVEN DAYS
OUT SO QUITE A BIT CAN CHANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME VIRGA SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT, OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES
MAY REACH THE GROUND, AND INCREASED ICING IS POSSIBLE. TOMORROW
MORNING, AROUND 11-12Z, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH, LEADING TO A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS. THESE SHOULD
WEAKEN BY 18Z.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1253 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. UPDATED 3/30/2026
--------------------------------------------------------
MONDAY, MARCH 30TH:
GOODLAND, KS - RECORD IS 88 (2010), FORECAST IS 86.
HILL CITY, KS - RECORD IS 93 (1943), FORECAST IS 89.
MCCOOK, NE - RECORD IS 93 (1943), FORECAST IS 88.
BURLINGTON, CO - RECORD IS 87 (2010), FORECAST IS 85.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA/HOLDREN
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...KAK
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