940
FXUS63 KGLD 310452
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1052 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTH WINDS AT 25-35 MPH MAY GUST UP TO 50 MPH IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, STRONGEST
ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ~5-9 AM CDT (10-14 UTC).
- COOLER (ALBEIT NEAR-AVERAGE) TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A 60% OR GREATER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, WEAK 500 MB DISTURBANCE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LEADING TO SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS. OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES MAY
REACH THE SURFACE, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL CLIMBING TODAY, AND ARE EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S WHERE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS AND 80S WHERE
THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK, LIMITING ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE FRONT LOOKS TO ENTER AROUND 11Z AND BRING WITH IT
GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 50 KTS OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 83, BETWEEN 12-16Z. THE
THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST IS LESS THAN 2%. LOWS ARE ONLY FORECAST
TO COOL INTO THE MID 40S TONIGHT, THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER.
TOMORROW'S HIGHS WILL BE HEAVILY STUNTED BY THE COLD FRONT,
LIKELY TOPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
TOMORROW EVENING, THE 500 MB VORTICITY PERSIST AND SOME
EASTERLY FLOW AT 850 MB MAY BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.
THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I- 70. IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL START
OFF AS RAIN, BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, SNOW WILL MIX IN. DUE
TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES, AIR TEMPERATURES ONLY HOVERING
AROUND FREEZING, AND VERY MINIMAL QPF, NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
OR WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THERE'S A SLIM (<2%) CHANCE
BRIDGES THAT REMAIN WET AS TEMPERATURES FALL AROUND FREEZING
WILL SEE PATCHY BLACK ICE.
WEDNESDAY, THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
TOP OUT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S, COOLEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA,
AS A 500 MB TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL GIVE US
INCREASING FORCING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AN 850 MB LOW FROM
SOUTHERN COLORADO PULLS IN MORE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. POPS
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING AROUND 21-06Z WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE ENTIRE CWA HAS A GREATER THAN 60% CHANCE AT SEEING
SOME PRECIPITATION. AS IT STANDS, THERE'S A 50% CHANCE MOST OF
THE CWA RECEIVES 0.1 INCH OF QPF BY THURSDAY MORNING.
SOUTH OF U.S. 40, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
MIX INTO THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS ALSO A 15% CHANCE SNOW STARTS MIXING IN ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. 34 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WE'RE ALSO
WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE FORMING THURSDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FALL TO AROUND FREEZING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
THURSDAY MORNING THERE IS STILL SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
WEDENSDAY'S SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE HIGH
CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
(CWA). THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.01" ALONG WITH A
50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.05" NORTH OF I-70 AND EAST OF HWY 83.
THEN ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT AROUND MIDDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. ESPECIALLY FOR KIT CARSON AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN
THE LOWER TEENS.
MOVING INTO FRIDAY THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. THERE IS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BEGINS
TO MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVES OUT
TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A JET MAX IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LOOKING TO BE AROUND 70-85 KTS. THERE IS 5-10 KFT OF MIXING SO
THE POTENTIAL IS LOW FOR NOW TO SEE THE HIGHER WINDS TO MIX
DOWN. THERE IS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE CO/KS/OK BOARDER.
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS, COOLER TEMPS, SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THERE IS 50% CHANCE OF SEEING WINDS GREATER THAN 35
MPH FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. YUMA, KIT CARSON, AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES IN COLORADO LOOK TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE (45%) OF
SEEING WINDS GREATER THAN 45 MPH. THE PEAK WINDS LOOK TO BE MID-
DAY FRIDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN DECREASING POPS TO AROUND 10-15% ALONG AND NORTH OF US
34 AND EVEN LESS TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS THE PARTICULARLY DUE TO
THE CWA BEING IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE SYSTEM. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF SEEING PRECIPITATION IS YUMA COUNTY WITH A 20%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.01".
ONE CONCERN/SCENARIO TO LOOK AT IF WE STILL STAY IN THE DRY
SLOT IS THAT THE AREA SOUTH OF I-70 AND WEST OF HWY 83 HAVE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND THE UPPER TEENS. THE WIND GUSTS
ARE IN THE RANGE OF 30-45 MPH THERE COULD BE A FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER RH AND HIGHER
WINDS. THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE WINDS IS SHOWING 60 MPH GUSTS
AROUND THE BOARDER OF YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES. THE 10TH
PERCENTILE SHOWS THERE BEING AROUND 35-40 MPH GUSTS. THIS SPREAD
BETWEEN THE 10TH/90TH PERCENTILES INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS
BEING IN THE 40-60 MPH RANGE.
SATURDAY THE WIND GUSTS RETURN WITH THE MEAN VALUES SHOWING
35-45 MPH WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS BEING IN THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT THE SPREAD THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN REACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE SINCE THERE IS ABOUT
A 30 MPH DIFFERENCE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL CAUSE RH VALUES TO REBOUND
ONLY DRYING OUT 20-30% LOWERING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL OFF QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE BEING LESS THAN 32 DEGREES
IS 50% IN THE EASTERN CWA AND MOVING TO 95% IN YUMA COUNTY. AS
FOR THE HIGHS THE STAY COOL IN THE UPPER 50S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS REMAIN TO BE PRETTY
CALM WITH WINDS STAYING IN THE CALM TO 10 MPH RANGE. ONE THING
TO NOTE THOUGH IS BOTH DAYS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BEING VERY DRY.
RH VALUES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. GRANTED
THIS IS SEVEN DAYS OUT SO QUITE A BIT CAN CHANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
CEILINGS CONFINED ABOVE ~12,000 FT AGL. SSW WINDS AT 7-12 KNOTS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW-NW AROUND 09Z AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. SHORTLY THEREAFTER, ~11Z, WINDS WILL
ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE N AND STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KNOTS W/GUSTS UP
TO 35 KNOTS AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH LATE MORNING, THEN VEER
TO THE NNE-NE AND WEAKEN TO 10-15 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
(~18Z). WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER DURING THE AFTERNOON,
BECOMING E AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO SUNSET (~00Z WED). WINDS WILL
FURTHER VEER TO THE ESE AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE EVENING, NEAR THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
CEILINGS CONFINED ABOVE ~12,000 FT AGL. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW-NW AROUND 08Z AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. SHORTLY THEREAFTER, ~10Z, WINDS WILL
ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE N AND STRENGTHEN TO 20-30 KNOTS W/GUSTS TO
35-40 KNOTS AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH LATE MORNING, THEN VEER
TO THE NNE-NE AND DECREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
(~18Z). WINDS WILL FURTHER DECREASE TO 12-17 KNOTS AND VEER TO
THE NE-ENE DURING THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING E AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR
TO SUNSET (~00Z WED). LIGHT E WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA/HOLDREN
AVIATION...VINCENT
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