487
FXUS63 KGLD 311002
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
402 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTH WINDS AT 25-35 MPH MAY GUST UP TO 50 MPH IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, STRONGEST
ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ~5-9 AM CDT (10-14 UTC).
- COOLER (ALBEIT NEAR-AVERAGE) TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A 60% OR GREATER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, WEAK 500 MB DISTURBANCE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LEADING TO SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS. OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES MAY
REACH THE SURFACE, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL CLIMBING TODAY, AND ARE EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S WHERE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS AND 80S WHERE
THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK, LIMITING ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE FRONT LOOKS TO ENTER AROUND 11Z AND BRING WITH IT
GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 50 KTS OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 83, BETWEEN 12-16Z. THE
THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST IS LESS THAN 2%. LOWS ARE ONLY FORECAST
TO COOL INTO THE MID 40S TONIGHT, THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER.
TOMORROW'S HIGHS WILL BE HEAVILY STUNTED BY THE COLD FRONT,
LIKELY TOPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
TOMORROW EVENING, THE 500 MB VORTICITY PERSIST AND SOME
EASTERLY FLOW AT 850 MB MAY BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.
THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I- 70. IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL START
OFF AS RAIN, BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, SNOW WILL MIX IN. DUE
TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES, AIR TEMPERATURES ONLY HOVERING
AROUND FREEZING, AND VERY MINIMAL QPF, NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
OR WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THERE'S A SLIM (<2%) CHANCE
BRIDGES THAT REMAIN WET AS TEMPERATURES FALL AROUND FREEZING
WILL SEE PATCHY BLACK ICE.
WEDNESDAY, THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
TOP OUT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S, COOLEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA,
AS A 500 MB TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL GIVE US
INCREASING FORCING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AN 850 MB LOW FROM
SOUTHERN COLORADO PULLS IN MORE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. POPS
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING AROUND 21-06Z WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE ENTIRE CWA HAS A GREATER THAN 60% CHANCE AT SEEING
SOME PRECIPITATION. AS IT STANDS, THERE'S A 50% CHANCE MOST OF
THE CWA RECEIVES 0.1 INCH OF QPF BY THURSDAY MORNING.
SOUTH OF U.S. 40, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
MIX INTO THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE IS ALSO A 15% CHANCE SNOW STARTS MIXING IN ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. 34 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WE'RE ALSO
WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE FORMING THURSDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FALL TO AROUND FREEZING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500 MB LOOKS TO BE ABOVE THE FORECAST REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE IS FAVORED TO
EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
PATTERN. SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
CYCLONE MAY CREATE WARM, DRY CONDITIONS GOING INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVER A 50% CHANCE FOR RH VALUES TO DROP TO
15% OR LOWER THROUGH 7 P.M., WITH PORTIONS OF CHEYENNE COUNTY (CO)
SEEING OVER AN 80% CHANCE. ADDITIONALLY, NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVER
A 70% CHANCE FOR MOST OF EASTERN COLORADO TO REACH WIND GUSTS ABOVE
25 MPH. AS SUCH, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS THURSDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORED GOING INTO FRIDAY, AS BOTH THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE MOVE EASTWARD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOWER-70S ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SURFACE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. NBM 75TH AND 25TH PERCENTILE
HIGH TEMPERATURES DIFFER BY 10-20 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO VARY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW THE CURRENT
FORECAST. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRIDAY
EVENING TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR, THOUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE
SURFACE CYCLONE. ONLY ABOUT A 30% CHANCE EXISTS FOR PRECIPITATION TO
FALL IN EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY EVENING, AND 15-20% FOR NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. RAIN IS CURRENTLY THE FAVORED
PRECIPITATION TYPE, THOUGH FORECASTED LOWS IN THE MID-20S TO LOWER-
30S COULD ALLOW EXISTING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW.
COOLER CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE SATURDAY, AS TROUGHING OVERHEAD
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOWER-60S,
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER-20S.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NORTHWESTERLY 500-MB FLOW IS FAVORED
OVERHEAD FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S
ALL THREE DAYS, IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
FLUCTUATE HIGHER AND LOWER DUE TO EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THIS FLOW MAY ALLOW
WARMER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THOUGH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
COULD INTRODUCE COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY A VISIBLE SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO NBM GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS
15-20 DEGREE DIFFERENCES IN THE NBM 75TH AND 25TH PERCENTILE MAX
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE IN PLACE SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN COLORADO, WITH RH VALUES IN THE MID-TEENS AND WIND GUSTS
25-30 MPH FORECASTED. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABOUT A 40-50%
CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA,
AND ABOUT THE SAME CHANCE FOR RH VALUES TO REACH CRITERIA. EVEN
SO, CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED EITHER DAY AT
THIS RANGE IS AROUND 10%, AS FORECAST GUSTS AND RH VALUES ARE
BARELY MEETING CRITERIA.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A SPLIT FLOW AT 500-MB APPEARS TO BE
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH COULD INDUCE WARMING AND AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
CEILINGS CONFINED ABOVE ~12,000 FT AGL. SSW WINDS AT 7-12 KNOTS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW-NW AROUND 09Z AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. SHORTLY THEREAFTER, ~11Z, WINDS WILL
ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE N AND STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KNOTS W/GUSTS UP
TO 35 KNOTS AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH LATE MORNING, THEN VEER
TO THE NNE-NE AND WEAKEN TO 10-15 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
(~18Z). WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER DURING THE AFTERNOON,
BECOMING E AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO SUNSET (~00Z WED). WINDS WILL
FURTHER VEER TO THE ESE AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE EVENING, NEAR THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
CEILINGS CONFINED ABOVE ~12,000 FT AGL. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW-NW AROUND 08Z AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. SHORTLY THEREAFTER, ~10Z, WINDS WILL
ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE N AND STRENGTHEN TO 20-30 KNOTS W/GUSTS TO
35-40 KNOTS AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH LATE MORNING, THEN VEER
TO THE NNE-NE AND DECREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
(~18Z). WINDS WILL FURTHER DECREASE TO 12-17 KNOTS AND VEER TO
THE NE-ENE DURING THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING E AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR
TO SUNSET (~00Z WED). LIGHT E WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page