583
FXUS63 KGLD 311702
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1102 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTH WINDS AT 25-35 MPH WILL GUST UP TO ~50 MPH IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING, STRONGEST
ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ~5-9 AM CDT (10-14 UTC).
- COOLER (ALBEIT NEAR-AVERAGE) TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A 60% OR GREATER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE IN EASTERN CO AND ADJACENT KS-
NE BORDER COUNTIES ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ASHORE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFT/EVE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST (TONIGHT), 4-CORNERS (WED) AND CENTRAL PLAINS
(WED NIGHT).. THEN LIFT NE TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT
LAKES (THU). AN ASSOCIATED MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON WED, PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WED NIGHT THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THU.
TODAY: AN INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE ASSOC/W SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING, THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH WILL
MANIFEST AS AN ABRUPT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND EFFECTIVE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ~09-15 UTC, USHERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS (850
MB TEMPS 3 TO 6C) INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA. FOR REFERENCE, 24-HR
AGO (07Z MON), 850 MB TEMPS WERE 21 TO 23C. EXPECT MUCH COOLER
(ALBEIT NEAR AVERAGE) HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50'S TO MID 60'S. LOW-
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE IMMEDIATE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL FOSTER A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO STRONG
(~25-35 MPH G 50 MPH) NORTH WINDS BETWEEN ~10-15 UTC, WHEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS VIA THE GFS, RAP AND HRRR INDICATE 30-40 KNOT
NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESIDE WITHIN A SHALLOW MIXED
LAYER (SURFACE TO ~2,000 FT AGL). FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE N
TO NE WINDS RAPIDLY DECREASING TO 15-25 MPH BY LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON.. FURTHER WEAKENING TO 10-15 MPH AS WINDS VEER
TO THE ENE-E DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT: SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL COMMENCE IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY WED MORNING AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SW
IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION WILL WEAKEN AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS WELL
EAST/DOWNSTREAM INTO ONTARIO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
STRENGTHENING ESE TO SSE LOW-LEVEL (850 MB) FLOW / WARM
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS
OVER MOST OF NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER ~12Z WED. WHILE LOW STRATUS WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO
KS-NE AND WON'T DEVELOP UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE, INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WILL FOSTER OVERCAST
SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30'S TO LOWER
40'S.
WEDNESDAY: CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST IN THIS PERIOD.. AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSES THE 4-CORNERS AND
PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL FOSTER A MARKED WARMING TREND OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MOST PROMINENTLY ALONG/ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY
40 WHERE TEMPS MAY RISE INTO THE 70'S. ON THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW, IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA,
WHERE E TO ESE SURFACE WINDS MAY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL MAINTAIN LOW CEILINGS/STRATUS,
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE LOWER 50'S. IN OTHER WORDS,
TEMPS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE TRACK AND ORIENTATION
OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS VIA
06Z RUNS OF THE HRRR AND NAM NEST SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN NORTHEAST CO, WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, FRONTOGENESIS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY (~500 J/KG
MUCAPE) MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON (AFTER 21-22Z). FURTHER EAST, NORTH OF
THE KS-NE BORDER, WHERE LOW STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED-OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN EASTWARD ADVANCING DRYLINE COULD
FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON (E.G. NEAR DODGE CITY).
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OVERALL
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST IN THIS PERIOD.. WHEN A MODEST
DEFORMATION BAND WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (CO-KS-NE BORDER) DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN IF SAID PRECIPITATION OCCURS
IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING CYCLONE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ABOVE FREEZING THERMAL PROFILES / RAIN.
THURSDAY: EARLY MORNING COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ABATE AND TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE (PROGGED TO MOVE ASHORE
THE PACIFIC NW WED NIGHT) PROGRESSES E-ESE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, FOSTERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER PRONOUNCED LEE
CYCLONE IN CO. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70'S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DEEP VERTICAL MIXING (UP TO ~10,000 FT AGL) IN EASTERN
CO AND ADJACENT KS-NE BORDER AREAS (WEST OF HWY 83), WHERE 30-35
KNOT S TO SW FLOW WILL BE PRESENT.. AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500 MB LOOKS TO BE ABOVE THE FORECAST
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE IS
FAVORED TO EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS PATTERN. SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONE MAY CREATE WARM, DRY CONDITIONS
GOING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVER A 50%
CHANCE FOR RH VALUES TO DROP TO 15% OR LOWER THROUGH 7 P.M.,
WITH PORTIONS OF CHEYENNE COUNTY (CO) SEEING OVER AN 80% CHANCE.
ADDITIONALLY, NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVER A 70% CHANCE FOR MOST
OF EASTERN COLORADO TO REACH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH. AS SUCH,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS THURSDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORED GOING INTO FRIDAY, AS BOTH THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE MOVE EASTWARD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOWER-70S ARE FORECAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. NBM 75TH AND
25TH PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURES DIFFER BY 10-20 DEGREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO VARY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW THE
CURRENT FORECAST. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRIDAY EVENING TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR, THOUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY
STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE. ONLY ABOUT A
30% CHANCE EXISTS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY EVENING, AND 15-20% FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. RAIN IS CURRENTLY THE FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE,
THOUGH FORECASTED LOWS IN THE MID-20S TO LOWER- 30S COULD ALLOW
EXISTING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW. COOLER
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE SATURDAY, AS TROUGHING OVERHEAD
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER-50S TO
LOWER-60S, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER-20S.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NORTHWESTERLY 500-MB FLOW IS
FAVORED OVERHEAD FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER-60S TO
LOWER-70S ALL THREE DAYS, IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO FLUCTUATE HIGHER AND LOWER DUE TO EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER- LEVEL FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IN THIS FLOW MAY ALLOW WARMER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
THOUGH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY COULD INTRODUCE COOLER
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY A
VISIBLE SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO NBM GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS 15-20 DEGREE DIFFERENCES
IN THE NBM 75TH AND 25TH PERCENTILE MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CWA TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
BE IN PLACE SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO, WITH RH VALUES IN THE MID-TEENS AND WIND GUSTS 25-30
MPH FORECASTED. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABOUT A 40-50% CHANCE
FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA, AND
ABOUT THE SAME CHANCE FOR RH VALUES TO REACH CRITERIA. EVEN SO,
CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED EITHER DAY AT THIS
RANGE IS AROUND 10%, AS FORECAST GUSTS AND RH VALUES ARE BARELY
MEETING CRITERIA.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A SPLIT FLOW AT 500-MB APPEARS TO BE
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH COULD INDUCE WARMING AND AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD
AND KMCK. WINDS WILL CONTINUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, FAVOR A WESTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT, THEN PICK UP FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING. KMCK DOES HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE
AT SEEING LIGHT SPRINKLES AT 7Z, AND AFTER 15Z, SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS MAY LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMCK.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...CA
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