485
FXUS63 KGLD 311759
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1159 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN STARTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
LASTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE IN EASTERN CO AND ADJACENT KS-
NE BORDER COUNTIES ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, THE 500 MB VORTICITY PERSISTS AND SOME EASTERLY FLOW
AT 850 MB IS BRINGING IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THIS COULD BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL START OFF
AS RAIN, BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES MAY MIX
IN. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING,
BUT IN THE 30S.
WEDNESDAY, THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S, COOLEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA, AS A 500
MB TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL GIVE US INCREASING
FORCING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AN 850 MB LOW FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO
PULLS IN MORE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. POPS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, PEAKING AROUND 21-06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ENTIRE CWA HAS A
GREATER THAN 60% CHANCE AT SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION. AS IT STANDS,
THERE'S A 50% CHANCE MOST OF THE CWA RECEIVES 0.1 INCH OF QPF BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO MIX INTO THE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AFTER 21Z, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. THE BIGGEST
HAZARD WOULD BE WINDS COMING OUT OF THE STORMS. MOST LIKELY GUSTS
WOULD BE IN THE 35-45 KTS RANGE, WITH PEAK POTENTIAL OF 55 KTS.
THERE IS ALSO A 15% CHANCE SNOW STARTS MIXING IN ALONG AND NORTH OF
U.S. 34 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, ON THE BACK END OF THE
PRECIPITATION. WE'RE ALSO WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE
FORMING THURSDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FALL TO AROUND
FREEZING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500 MB LOOKS TO BE ABOVE THE FORECAST
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE IS
FAVORED TO EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS PATTERN. SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONE MAY CREATE WARM, DRY CONDITIONS
GOING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVER A 50%
CHANCE FOR RH VALUES TO DROP TO 15% OR LOWER THROUGH 7 P.M.,
WITH PORTIONS OF CHEYENNE COUNTY (CO) SEEING OVER AN 80% CHANCE.
ADDITIONALLY, NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVER A 70% CHANCE FOR MOST
OF EASTERN COLORADO TO REACH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH. AS SUCH,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS THURSDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORED GOING INTO FRIDAY, AS BOTH THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE MOVE EASTWARD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOWER-70S ARE FORECAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. NBM 75TH AND
25TH PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURES DIFFER BY 10-20 DEGREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO VARY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW THE
CURRENT FORECAST. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRIDAY EVENING TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR, THOUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY
STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE. ONLY ABOUT A
30% CHANCE EXISTS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY EVENING, AND 15-20% FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. RAIN IS CURRENTLY THE FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE,
THOUGH FORECASTED LOWS IN THE MID-20S TO LOWER- 30S COULD ALLOW
EXISTING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW. COOLER
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE SATURDAY, AS TROUGHING OVERHEAD
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER-50S TO
LOWER-60S, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER-20S.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NORTHWESTERLY 500-MB FLOW IS
FAVORED OVERHEAD FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER-60S TO
LOWER-70S ALL THREE DAYS, IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO FLUCTUATE HIGHER AND LOWER DUE TO EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER- LEVEL FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IN THIS FLOW MAY ALLOW WARMER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
THOUGH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY COULD INTRODUCE COOLER
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY A
VISIBLE SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO NBM GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS 15-20 DEGREE DIFFERENCES
IN THE NBM 75TH AND 25TH PERCENTILE MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CWA TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
BE IN PLACE SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO, WITH RH VALUES IN THE MID-TEENS AND WIND GUSTS 25-30
MPH FORECASTED. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABOUT A 40-50% CHANCE
FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA, AND
ABOUT THE SAME CHANCE FOR RH VALUES TO REACH CRITERIA. EVEN SO,
CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED EITHER DAY AT THIS
RANGE IS AROUND 10%, AS FORECAST GUSTS AND RH VALUES ARE BARELY
MEETING CRITERIA.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A SPLIT FLOW AT 500-MB APPEARS TO BE
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH COULD INDUCE WARMING AND AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD
AND KMCK. WINDS WILL CONTINUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, FAVOR A WESTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT, THEN PICK UP FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING. KMCK DOES HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE
AT SEEING LIGHT SPRINKLES AT 7Z, AND AFTER 15Z, SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS MAY LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMCK.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...CA
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