702
FXUS63 KGLD 312045
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN STARTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
LASTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, THE 500 MB VORTICITY PERSISTS AND SOME EASTERLY FLOW
AT 850 MB IS BRINGING IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THIS COULD BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL START OFF
AS RAIN, BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES MAY MIX
IN. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING,
BUT IN THE 30S.
WEDNESDAY, THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S, COOLEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA, AS A 500
MB TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL GIVE US INCREASING
FORCING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AN 850 MB LOW FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO
PULLS IN MORE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. POPS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, PEAKING AROUND 21-06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ENTIRE CWA HAS A
GREATER THAN 60% CHANCE AT SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION. AS IT STANDS,
THERE'S A 50% CHANCE MOST OF THE CWA RECEIVES 0.1 INCH OF QPF BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO MIX INTO THE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AFTER 21Z, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. THE BIGGEST
HAZARD WOULD BE WINDS COMING OUT OF THE STORMS. MOST LIKELY GUSTS
WOULD BE IN THE 35-45 KTS RANGE, WITH PEAK POTENTIAL OF 55 KTS.
THERE IS ALSO A 15% CHANCE SNOW STARTS MIXING IN ALONG AND NORTH OF
U.S. 34 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, ON THE BACK END OF THE
PRECIPITATION. WE'RE ALSO WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE
FORMING THURSDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FALL TO AROUND
FREEZING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
THURSDAY MORNING LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS WEDENSDAY'S
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN
THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWN A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE PROBABILITY OF
SEEING PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING TO MIDDAY HOURS. ONCE THE SYSTEM
MOVES OUT AROUND MIDDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S, ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.
FOR THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL, LOOKING AT GUIDANCE FOR YUMA, KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTY THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF SEEING 25
MPH GUSTS BEGINNING AROUND NOON THEN IN THE AFTERNOON IS A 70-95%
CHANCE OF SEEING 25 MPH WIND GUSTS COMING FROM THE SOUTH. THE TIMING
FOR PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE LOOKING TO BE AROUND 12PM-8PM WITH THERE
BEING A 40-50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 40 MPH FOR MAINLY KIT CARSON,
COUNTY. AS FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY THEY ARE VALUES IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE THERE IS A 50-60% THAT
RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL BE MET, PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH.
LOOKING AT FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES, BUT THERE IS A THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY EARLY MORNING. THERE IS A COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWER 40S FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS
IN THE CWA. AS FOR THE HIGHS THE TEMPERATURES THEY LOOK TO ONLY WARM
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS FOR PRECIPITATION THERE IS STILL A VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF SEEING ANYTHING WOULD BE FRIDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE 10-20 POPS OVER THE COLORADO COUNTIES AND THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
FIRE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEEING THE HIGHER WINDS ARE FOR YUMA, KIT CARSON, AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES, CO. THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTH. THERE IS A 75-90% OF SEEING AT LEAST 25 MPH GUSTS BEGINNING
AROUND 9 AM (MDT). THE HIGHEST GUSTS HAVE A 50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING
40 MPH IN WESTERN YUMA COUNTY, CO. WIDESPREAD RH VALUES ARE LOOKING
TO BE NEAR 20% WITH THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA SEEING VALUES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO SHOWN AN INCREASE IN GFDI
VALUES REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH THE GREATEST PEAK
OCCURRING FROM 12 PM (MDT) TO 4 PM (MDT) WHICH IS ALSO WHEN WE SEE
THE PEAK WINDS AND THE LOWEST RH VALUES.
LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE PERIOD THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SIMILARITY
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE UPPER PATTERN WE STAY ZONAL WITH
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE THREE DAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
IN THE 70S WITH FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. AS FOR THE LOWS THEY
LOOK TO STAY IN THE UPPER 20S FOR SUNDAY THEN SHIFTING TO THE MID
30S. WINDS LOOK TO BE COMING FROM THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AS FOR WIND GUSTS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG THEY WILL
BE. LOOKING AT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 90TH
AND 10TH PERCENTILES THE SPREAD IS AROUND 20-25 MPH DIFFERENCE. THE
90TH PERCENTILE DOES SHOW THERE BEING WINDS IN THE 20-40 MPH RANGE
FOR BOTH DAYS. AS FOR THE RH VALUES IN THE LOWER TEENS ARE
FORECASTED WHICH DOES SHOW A CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA BEING
MET.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD
AND KMCK. WINDS WILL CONTINUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, FAVOR A WESTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT, THEN PICK UP FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING. KMCK DOES HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE
AT SEEING LIGHT SPRINKLES AT 7Z, AND AFTER 15Z, SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS MAY LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMCK.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ027-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA/HOLDREN
AVIATION...CA
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