531
FXUS63 KGLD 010419
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1019 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
YUMA, KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO AND
WALLACE, GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN KANSAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, THE 500 MB VORTICITY PERSISTS AND SOME EASTERLY
FLOW AT 850 MB IS BRINGING IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. IF PRECIPITATION
OCCURS, IT WILL START OFF AS RAIN, BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES,
SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES MAY MIX IN. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, BUT IN THE 30S.
WEDNESDAY, THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S, COOLEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA, AS A 500 MB TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL GIVE
US INCREASING FORCING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AN 850 MB LOW FROM
SOUTHERN COLORADO PULLS IN MORE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. POPS
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING AROUND 21-06Z WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE ENTIRE CWA HAS A GREATER THAN 60% CHANCE AT SEEING
SOME PRECIPITATION. AS IT STANDS, THERE'S A 50% CHANCE MOST OF
THE CWA RECEIVES 0.1 INCH OF QPF BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO MIX INTO THE
ONGOING PRECIPITATION AFTER 21Z, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.
THE BIGGEST HAZARD WOULD BE WINDS COMING OUT OF THE STORMS.
MOST LIKELY GUSTS WOULD BE IN THE 35-45 KTS RANGE, WITH PEAK
POTENTIAL OF 55 KTS. THERE IS ALSO A 15% CHANCE SNOW STARTS
MIXING IN ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 34 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, ON
THE BACK END OF THE PRECIPITATION. WE'RE ALSO WATCHING THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE FORMING THURSDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN FALL TO AROUND FREEZING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
THURSDAY MORNING LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS WEDENSDAY'S
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA).
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION FOR THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE PROBABILITY OF SEEING PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING TO MIDDAY
HOURS. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT AROUND MIDDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL, LOOKING AT GUIDANCE FOR YUMA,
KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTY THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF
SEEING 25 MPH GUSTS BEGINNING AROUND NOON THEN IN THE AFTERNOON
IS A 70-95% CHANCE OF SEEING 25 MPH WIND GUSTS COMING FROM THE
SOUTH. THE TIMING FOR PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE LOOKING TO BE AROUND
12PM-8PM WITH THERE BEING A 40-50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 40 MPH
FOR MAINLY KIT CARSON, COUNTY. AS FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
THEY ARE VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS. BASED ON CURRENT
GUIDANCE THERE IS A 50-60% THAT RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL BE MET,
PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
LOOKING AT FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES, BUT THERE IS A THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY EARLY MORNING. THERE IS A COLD FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWER 40S FOR THE
EASTERN PORTIONS IN THE CWA. AS FOR THE HIGHS THE TEMPERATURES
THEY LOOK TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION THERE IS STILL A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SEEING
ANYTHING WOULD BE FRIDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
10-20 POPS OVER THE COLORADO COUNTIES AND THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE CWA.
FIRE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEEING THE HIGHER WINDS ARE FOR YUMA, KIT CARSON, AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES, CO. THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTH. THERE IS A 75-90% OF SEEING AT LEAST 25 MPH GUSTS
BEGINNING AROUND 9 AM (MDT). THE HIGHEST GUSTS HAVE A 50% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING 40 MPH IN WESTERN YUMA COUNTY, CO. WIDESPREAD RH
VALUES ARE LOOKING TO BE NEAR 20% WITH THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA SEEING VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO
SHOWN AN INCREASE IN GFDI VALUES REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH THE GREATEST PEAK OCCURRING FROM 12 PM (MDT) TO 4
PM (MDT) WHICH IS ALSO WHEN WE SEE THE PEAK WINDS AND THE
LOWEST RH VALUES.
LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE PERIOD THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
SIMILARITY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE UPPER PATTERN WE
STAY ZONAL WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE THREE DAYS.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA. AS FOR THE LOWS THEY LOOK TO STAY IN THE UPPER 20S FOR
SUNDAY THEN SHIFTING TO THE MID 30S. WINDS LOOK TO BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS FOR WIND GUSTS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE. LOOKING AT BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 90TH AND 10TH
PERCENTILES THE SPREAD IS AROUND 20-25 MPH DIFFERENCE. THE 90TH
PERCENTILE DOES SHOW THERE BEING WINDS IN THE 20-40 MPH RANGE
FOR BOTH DAYS. AS FOR THE RH VALUES IN THE LOWER TEENS ARE
FORECASTED WHICH DOES SHOW A CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
BEING MET.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
MAINLY BETWEEN ~22-02Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP A
FEW HOURS AFTER THE 06Z TAF, ~06-12Z THU. E WINDS AT ~10 KNOTS
WILL VEER TO THE SE AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE SSE AND INCREASE
TO 20-30 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN CO DEEPENS AND TRACKS EAST TOWARD THE CO-KS BORDER.
SOUTH WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 10-15 KNOTS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
(~02-03Z THU) AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE DURING THE LATE EVENING..
AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD OVER WESTERN KS.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON (~21Z), WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR
BY/AROUND SUNSET. CEILINGS MAY FURTHER DETERIORATE TO LIFR
DURING THE LATE EVENING, AT/NEAR THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY ~23-04Z. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE (~13Z). WINDS WILL
FURTHER VEER TO THE ESE-SE AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CO DEEPENS AND
TRACKS EAST TOWARD THE CO-KS BORDER. BREEZY SE WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE E AND DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE EVENING,
NEAR THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN KS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ027-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA/HOLDREN
AVIATION...VINCENT
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