874
FXUS63 KGLD 010853
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
253 AM MDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
YUMA, KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO AND
WALLACE, GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN KANSAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, THE 500 MB VORTICITY PERSISTS AND SOME EASTERLY
FLOW AT 850 MB IS BRINGING IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. IF PRECIPITATION
OCCURS, IT WILL START OFF AS RAIN, BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES,
SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES MAY MIX IN. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, BUT IN THE 30S.
WEDNESDAY, THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S, COOLEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA, AS A 500 MB TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL GIVE
US INCREASING FORCING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AN 850 MB LOW FROM
SOUTHERN COLORADO PULLS IN MORE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. POPS
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING AROUND 21-06Z WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE ENTIRE CWA HAS A GREATER THAN 60% CHANCE AT SEEING
SOME PRECIPITATION. AS IT STANDS, THERE'S A 50% CHANCE MOST OF
THE CWA RECEIVES 0.1 INCH OF QPF BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO MIX INTO THE
ONGOING PRECIPITATION AFTER 21Z, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.
THE BIGGEST HAZARD WOULD BE WINDS COMING OUT OF THE STORMS.
MOST LIKELY GUSTS WOULD BE IN THE 35-45 KTS RANGE, WITH PEAK
POTENTIAL OF 55 KTS. THERE IS ALSO A 15% CHANCE SNOW STARTS
MIXING IN ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 34 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, ON
THE BACK END OF THE PRECIPITATION. WE'RE ALSO WATCHING THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE FORMING THURSDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN FALL TO AROUND FREEZING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT WED APR 1 2026
A 500-MB LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WYOMING ROCKY MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. DOWNSLOPING SURFACE
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST LOOK TO INJECT DRY AIR
INTO THE CWA, WITH THE NBM SUGGESTING A 40-50% CHANCE OF SINGLE-
DIGIT DEWPOINTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER MAY BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
IN THE MID TO UPPER-TEENS AND WIND GUSTS 25-40 KTS (28-46 MPH)
FORECAST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD BE HEAVILY DRIVEN
BY WIND IN THIS CASE, AS BOTH NBM AND LREF GUIDANCE GIVE OVER AN 80%
PROBABILITY FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA,
WITH NBM 50TH PERCENTILE SURFACE WIND GUSTS ALREADY 30 MPH OR
GREATER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, LREF GUIDANCE
INDICATES ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HITTING
CRITERIA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WEST-
CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION TO OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE
NAM CURRENTLY FORECASTING UP TO 150 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO. WHILE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS CONVECTION COULD
HINDER THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER, IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT
THAT DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL PREVENT PRECIPITATION FROM
REACHING THE SURFACE. DRY LIGHTNING IN YUMA AND DUNDY COUNTIES WOULD
BE MORE OF A CONCERN, AS IT COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FIRE
STARTER. THE BEST SCENARIO FOR THIS EVENT TO NOT OCCUR WOULD BE
IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD COOL FURTHER FROM THE COLD FRONT
OR INCREASED CLOUD COVER, WHICH WOULD INCREASE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING
BEING NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS HIGHEST FOR EASTERN COLORADO
AROUND 25%. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER-50S TO MID-60S, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-20S.
TROUGHING MAY STILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY MORNING, WITH NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS STILL IN PLACE. COOLER CONDITIONS LOOK
TO REMAIN, WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID-60S. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DANGER IS NOT YET A CONCERN SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO,
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER-TEENS. LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS UP
TO A 50% CHANCE OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO MEET THRESHOLDS FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IN SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CHEYENNE COUNTY
COLORADO, BUT LESS THAN 25% ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN
COLORADO. IF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD DROP A FEW MORE POINTS, THEN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER COULD BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN. THIS WOULD
OCCUR IF SURFACE WINDS HAVE A MORE WESTERLY, DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
NORTHWESTERLY 500-MB FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOST INFLUENTIAL
OF THESE SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTED OUT OF
NORTHERN CANADA. WARMER CONDITIONS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARE
CURRENTLY FAVORED, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BOTH DAYS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER COULD ONCE AGAIN BE A
CONCERN, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TO MID-TEENS SUNDAY,
AND MID TO UPPER-TEENS MONDAY. HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE A BIT
WEAKER THAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING
20-25 MPH GUSTS SUNDAY, AND 25-30 MPH GUSTS MONDAY. NBM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AROUND A 40% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY, AND 60-70%
CHANCE ON MONDAY. EVEN SO, CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING
NEEDED EITHER DAY AT THIS RANGE IS AROUND 10%, AS FORECAST GUSTS AND
RH VALUES ARE BARELY MEETING CRITERIA.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTED OUT OF CANADA LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE
GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY, ALLOWING A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ENTER THE INTERIOR UNITED STATES. SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID-60S TO LOW-70S ACROSS THE CWA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WOULD
APPEAR TO FAVOR RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER-70S TO LOWER-80S. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MAY HAVE THE CHANCE TO INFLUENCE WEATHER
IN THE FORECAST REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH ITS IMPACTS ARE
CURRENTLY UNCLEAR DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY. AROUND HALF OF THE GEFS
MEMBERS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FROM THIS SYSTEM, WHEREAS 75% OF EC MEMBERS POINT TOWARD A
DRIER FORECAST WITH FURTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISKS. AS SUCH,
WEDNESDAY COULD BE A MULTI-HAZARD DAY, WHERE THE WEATHER EXPERIENCED
IN THE FORECAST REGION IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK
OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
MAINLY BETWEEN ~22-02Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP A
FEW HOURS AFTER THE 06Z TAF, ~06-12Z THU. E WINDS AT ~10 KNOTS
WILL VEER TO THE SE AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE SSE AND INCREASE
TO 20-30 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN CO DEEPENS AND TRACKS EAST TOWARD THE CO-KS BORDER.
SOUTH WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 10-15 KNOTS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
(~02-03Z THU) AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE DURING THE LATE EVENING..
AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD OVER WESTERN KS.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON (~21Z), WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR
BY/AROUND SUNSET. CEILINGS MAY FURTHER DETERIORATE TO LIFR
DURING THE LATE EVENING, AT/NEAR THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY ~23-04Z. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE (~13Z). WINDS WILL
FURTHER VEER TO THE ESE-SE AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CO DEEPENS AND
TRACKS EAST TOWARD THE CO-KS BORDER. BREEZY SE WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE E AND DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE EVENING,
NEAR THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN KS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ027-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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