486
FXUS63 KGLD 011929
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
129 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY.
- STRONG WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAY GUST
UP AROUND 50 MPH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
TOP OUT IN THE 50S AND 60S, COOLEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA, AS A
500 MB TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS GIVING US INCREASING
FORCING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AN 850 MB LOW IN COLORADO PULLS IN
MORE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST.
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS EVENT WILL START OFF COMING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 18-21Z. POPS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING
AROUND 21-06Z THIS EVENING. THE ENTIRE CWA HAS A GREATER THAN 70%
CHANCE AT SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION, AND THERE'S A 50% CHANCE MOST
OF THE CWA RECEIVES 0.1 INCH OF QPF BY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 34 HAVE A 20% CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING MORE THAN 0.5 INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM! ALONG
AND SOUTH OF U.S. 36, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION BEFORE A FINAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO MIX INTO THE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AROUND 21Z, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. THE
BIGGEST HAZARD WOULD BE WINDS COMING OUT OF THE STORMS. MOST LIKELY
GUSTS WOULD BE IN THE 35-45 KTS RANGE, WITH PEAK POTENTIAL OF 55
KTS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE CLEAR OF
RAIN. AS THE PRECIPITATION EXITS, WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
BRIEFLY INCREASE AND GUST UP AROUND 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED.
TOMORROW, WE WARM BACK UP INTO THE 70S AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
GUST UP AROUND 25-35 KTS IN THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS, WE ARE WORRIED ABOUT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE
AS CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 50-60% THAT RH VALUES WILL MEET
CRITERIA. ADDITIONALLY, THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 20
HOURS SHOULD HELP SOME, HOW MUCH IS STILL A BIT UNKNOWN. BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATCH AREA
IS LIKELY (80%).
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS DOES INTRODUCE A FAIRLY LOW (<20%) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 34. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS RECEIVES 45+ KTS WINDS AROUND 12Z FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY, WITH
PERSISTENT GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS LIKELY. ONCE AGAIN, THERE IS CONCERN
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT THE RH VALUES ARE RIGHT ON
THE LINE. HOWEVER, GFDI VALUES IN EASTERN COLORADO ARE CLIMB UP TO
AROUND 60.
WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST WITH THESE
STRONGER WINDS. BY 21Z 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES WILL BE ABOVE 10 C/KM,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOFTED DUST. CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY
BEING REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IN A PLUME OF BLOWING DUST IS
ABOUT 15%. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT WED APR 1 2026
A 500-MB LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WYOMING ROCKY
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING, WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST LOOK TO INJECT DRY AIR INTO THE CWA, WITH THE NBM
SUGGESTING A 40-50% CHANCE OF SINGLE- DIGIT DEWPOINTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A
CONCERN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO
UPPER-TEENS AND WIND GUSTS 25-40 KTS (28-46 MPH) FORECAST.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD BE HEAVILY DRIVEN BY WIND
IN THIS CASE, AS BOTH NBM AND LREF GUIDANCE GIVE OVER AN 80%
PROBABILITY FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CRITERIA, WITH NBM 50TH PERCENTILE SURFACE WIND GUSTS ALREADY 30
MPH OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, LREF
GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
HITTING CRITERIA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND WEST- CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE NAM CURRENTLY FORECASTING UP TO 150 J/KG OF
MUCAPE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. WHILE PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS CONVECTION COULD HINDER THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER, IT
SEEMS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT THAT DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PREVENT PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. DRY
LIGHTNING IN YUMA AND DUNDY COUNTIES WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN,
AS IT COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FIRE STARTER. THE BEST
SCENARIO FOR THIS EVENT TO NOT OCCUR WOULD BE IF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COULD COOL FURTHER FROM THE COLD FRONT OR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER, WHICH WOULD INCREASE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IS HIGHEST FOR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 25%. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER-50S TO MID-60S,
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-20S.
TROUGHING MAY STILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY MORNING, WITH NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS STILL IN PLACE. COOLER CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN, WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID-60S.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS NOT YET A CONCERN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS 25-35 MPH WIND
GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
UPPER-TEENS. LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS UP TO A 50% CHANCE OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO MEET THRESHOLDS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IN
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO, BUT LESS THAN
25% ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN COLORADO. IF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES COULD DROP A FEW MORE POINTS, THEN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER COULD BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN. THIS WOULD OCCUR IF
SURFACE WINDS HAVE A MORE WESTERLY, DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT THAN
THE CURRENT FORECAST.
NORTHWESTERLY 500-MB FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOST
INFLUENTIAL OF THESE SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTED OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA. WARMER CONDITIONS OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID-70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BOTH DAYS. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER COULD ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
IN THE LOW TO MID-TEENS SUNDAY, AND MID TO UPPER-TEENS MONDAY.
HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING 20-25 MPH GUSTS
SUNDAY, AND 25-30 MPH GUSTS MONDAY. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND
A 40% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CRITERIA IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY, AND 60-70%
CHANCE ON MONDAY. EVEN SO, CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING
BEING NEEDED EITHER DAY AT THIS RANGE IS AROUND 10%, AS FORECAST
GUSTS AND RH VALUES ARE BARELY MEETING CRITERIA.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTED OUT OF CANADA LOOKS TO TRAVERSE
THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY, ALLOWING A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ENTER THE INTERIOR UNITED
STATES. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS
SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID-60S TO LOW-70S ACROSS THE
CWA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR RIDGING OVER THE
FORECAST REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER-70S TO LOWER-80S. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES MAY HAVE THE CHANCE TO INFLUENCE WEATHER IN THE
FORECAST REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH ITS IMPACTS ARE
CURRENTLY UNCLEAR DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY. AROUND HALF OF THE
GEFS MEMBERS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THIS SYSTEM, WHEREAS 75% OF EC MEMBERS
POINT TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST WITH FURTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
RISKS. AS SUCH, WEDNESDAY COULD BE A MULTI-HAZARD DAY, WHERE
THE WEATHER EXPERIENCED IN THE FORECAST REGION IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MDT WED APR 1 2026
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR
BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. CEILINGS LOOK TO BE THE BIG IMPACT FOR BOTH
SITES, LIKELY DROPPING TO IFR, POTENTIALLY EVEN MINIMUMS FOR
KMCK.
SHOWERS MAY START MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS SOON AS 19Z
FOR KGLD AND 21Z FOR KMCK. KGLD HAS A 10-20% CHANCE OF HAVING
THUNDERSTORMS IN ARE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AROUND 3Z
AT KGLD, A LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AIRPORT, CAUSING WINDS TO GO
FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BY 6Z, STILL IN THE 15-20
KTS RANGE. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TAKE A BREAK AT THIS
POINT AND MAY RETURN AROUND 7Z. KMCK, ONCE THE PRECIPITATION
BEGINS, IT WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TOMORROW MORNING, AFTER SUNRISE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ027-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page