687
FXUS63 KGLD 012236
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
436 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY.
- STRONG WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAY GUST
UP AROUND 50 MPH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
TOP OUT IN THE 50S AND 60S, COOLEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA, AS A
500 MB TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS GIVING US INCREASING
FORCING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AN 850 MB LOW IN COLORADO PULLS IN
MORE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST.
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS EVENT WILL START OFF COMING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 18-21Z. POPS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING
AROUND 21-06Z THIS EVENING. THE ENTIRE CWA HAS A GREATER THAN 70%
CHANCE AT SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION, AND THERE'S A 50% CHANCE MOST
OF THE CWA RECEIVES 0.1 INCH OF QPF BY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 34 HAVE A 20% CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING MORE THAN 0.5 INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM! ALONG
AND SOUTH OF U.S. 36, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION BEFORE A FINAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO MIX INTO THE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AROUND 21Z, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. THE
BIGGEST HAZARD WOULD BE WINDS COMING OUT OF THE STORMS. MOST LIKELY
GUSTS WOULD BE IN THE 35-45 KTS RANGE, WITH PEAK POTENTIAL OF 55
KTS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE CLEAR OF
RAIN. AS THE PRECIPITATION EXITS, WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
BRIEFLY INCREASE AND GUST UP AROUND 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED.
TOMORROW, WE WARM BACK UP INTO THE 70S AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
GUST UP AROUND 25-35 KTS IN THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS, WE ARE WORRIED ABOUT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE
AS CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 50-60% THAT RH VALUES WILL MEET
CRITERIA. ADDITIONALLY, THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 20
HOURS SHOULD HELP SOME, HOW MUCH IS STILL A BIT UNKNOWN. BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATCH AREA
IS LIKELY (80%).
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS DOES INTRODUCE A FAIRLY LOW (<20%) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 34. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS RECEIVES 45+ KTS WINDS AROUND 12Z FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY, WITH
PERSISTENT GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS LIKELY. ONCE AGAIN, THERE IS CONCERN
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT THE RH VALUES ARE RIGHT ON
THE LINE. HOWEVER, GFDI VALUES IN EASTERN COLORADO ARE CLIMB UP TO
AROUND 60.
WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST WITH THESE
STRONGER WINDS. BY 21Z 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES WILL BE ABOVE 10 C/KM,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOFTED DUST. CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY
BEING REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IN A PLUME OF BLOWING DUST IS
ABOUT 15%. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
SATURDAY MORNING, A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
APRIL WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS
FROM 30-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA). YUMA COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE THE HIGHER END OF
WIND GUSTS. SKIES ARE FORECAST TO BE CLEAR WITH A WEAK INVERSION IN
PLACE. IF MORE CLOUD COVER OCCURS AND THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS,
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
RESULTING IN OVERALL WEAKER WINDS. CURRENTLY, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW CRITERIA FOR DUST PRODUCTS, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(APPROXIMATELY 5%) OF LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN YUMA AND
KIT CARSON COUNTIES BASED ON 0-2 KM AND 2-2.5 KM LAPSE RATES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE MID/HIGH TEENS FOR
THE WESTERN CWA. SATURDAY'S STRONGEST WINDS DO NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
LOWEST RH VALUES, BUT A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY FURTHER
DIMINISH IF WE GET ENOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM FOR
RH VALUES TO INCREASE.
SUNDAY, THERE IS A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS PLACING US IN
A PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE 70S FOR THE CWA. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE 30S TO
40S. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND RH VALUES ARE IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S, SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT A CONCERN
AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR ON MONDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TRAVERSING
TOWARDS OUR REGION. WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE
FOR THE NORTHERN CWA. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
TO 30S. OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WE SEE AN UPTICK IN
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) DUE TO A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. POPS RANGE
FROM 10-20% WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE BASED ON FORECAST
TEMPERATURES.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TUESDAY AS WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
KEEP POPS LOW AT AROUND 20% FOR THE REGION. IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS,
RAIN IS MOST LIKELY GIVEN FORECAST TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S TO 70S FOR THE CWA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 434 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IN THE 3500 TO 9000 FT AGL LEVEL ALONG
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 09Z THURSDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND A
DEEPENING 850 MB LOW AS IT CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE LOWER VFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER UNTIL AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY CROSSES THE AREA AFTER 09Z. AS THIS
UPPER WAVE PASSES, A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND RESULT IN THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTH AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 09Z THURSDAY, BUT LOW
CLOUDS/STRATUS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE
INDICATE A PERIOD OF CEILINGS IN THE 500 TO 1000 FT LEVEL TO BE
POSSIBLE AT BOTH GOODLAND AND MCCOOK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ027-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DDC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page