406
FXUS63 KGLD 020558
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1158 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN CO AND WALLACE, GREELEY
AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- STRONG NW WINDS (30-40 MPH W/GUSTS TO 55 MPH) WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- BREEZY WNW TO W WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY FOSTER CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S AND 60S, COOLEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA,
AS A 500 MB TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS GIVING US
INCREASING FORCING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AN 850 MB LOW IN
COLORADO PULLS IN MORE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST.
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS EVENT WILL START OFF COMING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 18-21Z. POPS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
PEAKING AROUND 21-06Z THIS EVENING. THE ENTIRE CWA HAS A GREATER
THAN 70% CHANCE AT SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION, AND THERE'S A 50%
CHANCE MOST OF THE CWA RECEIVES 0.1 INCH OF QPF BY THURSDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 34 HAVE A
20% CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING MORE THAN 0.5 INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM! ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 36, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE A FINAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH FROM
THE WEST. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO MIX INTO THE
ONGOING PRECIPITATION AROUND 21Z, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY. THE BIGGEST HAZARD WOULD BE WINDS COMING OUT OF THE
STORMS. MOST LIKELY GUSTS WOULD BE IN THE 35-45 KTS RANGE, WITH
PEAK POTENTIAL OF 55 KTS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING TO THE
EAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE MOST OF THE
CWA WILL BE CLEAR OF RAIN. AS THE PRECIPITATION EXITS, WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE AND GUST UP AROUND 30
KTS ARE EXPECTED.
TOMORROW, WE WARM BACK UP INTO THE 70S AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND GUST UP AROUND 25-35 KTS IN THE WESTERN CWA. WITH
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS, WE ARE WORRIED ABOUT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN PLACE AS CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 50-60% THAT RH
VALUES WILL MEET CRITERIA. ADDITIONALLY, THE PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NEXT 20 HOURS SHOULD HELP SOME, HOW MUCH IS STILL A BIT
UNKNOWN. BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF
THE WATCH AREA IS LIKELY (80%).
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS DOES INTRODUCE A FAIRLY LOW (<20%) CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 34. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS
A 30% CHANCE NORTHWESTERN KANSAS RECEIVES 45+ KTS WINDS AROUND
12Z FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE
DAY, WITH PERSISTENT GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS LIKELY. ONCE AGAIN,
THERE IS CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT THE
RH VALUES ARE RIGHT ON THE LINE. HOWEVER, GFDI VALUES IN EASTERN
COLORADO ARE CLIMB UP TO AROUND 60.
WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST WITH THESE
STRONGER WINDS. BY 21Z 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES WILL BE ABOVE 10 C/KM,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOFTED DUST. CONFIDENCE IN
VISIBILITY BEING REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IN A PLUME OF
BLOWING DUST IS ABOUT 15%. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, WINDS WILL WEAKEN
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
SATURDAY MORNING, A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE FOR
EARLY APRIL WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS FROM 30-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). YUMA COUNTY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE HIGHER END OF WIND GUSTS. SKIES ARE FORECAST TO
BE CLEAR WITH A WEAK INVERSION IN PLACE. IF MORE CLOUD COVER
OCCURS AND THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS, STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL
NOT BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, RESULTING IN OVERALL
WEAKER WINDS. CURRENTLY, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW CRITERIA
FOR DUST PRODUCTS, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (APPROXIMATELY 5%)
OF LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN YUMA AND KIT CARSON
COUNTIES BASED ON 0-2 KM AND 2-2.5 KM LAPSE RATES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE MID/HIGH
TEENS FOR THE WESTERN CWA. SATURDAY'S STRONGEST WINDS DO NOT
COINCIDE WITH THE LOWEST RH VALUES, BUT A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
MAY FURTHER DIMINISH IF WE GET ENOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM
WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM FOR RH VALUES TO INCREASE.
SUNDAY, THERE IS A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS PLACING
US IN A PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 70S FOR THE CWA. LOWS ARE FORECAST
IN THE 30S TO 40S. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND RH
VALUES ARE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S, SO FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR ON MONDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE
TRAVERSING TOWARDS OUR REGION. WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN CWA. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO 30S. OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WE
SEE AN UPTICK IN PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) DUE TO A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION. POPS RANGE FROM 10-20% WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TUESDAY AS WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL KEEP POPS LOW AT AROUND 20% FOR THE REGION. IF PRECIP
OCCURS, RAIN IS MOST LIKELY GIVEN FORECAST TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S TO 70S FOR THE CWA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
GLD: LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND, OR SHORTLY AFTER, SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER, THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. N WINDS AT 12-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W AND DECREASE TO ~10
KNOTS LATE THU MORNING (~16-18Z).. THEN BACK TO THE SW-SSW AND
STRENGTHEN TO 15-25 KNOTS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON (~21Z).
BREEZY S TO SSE WINDS WILL PREVAIL PERSIST THROUGH THU EVENING.
MCK: LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE (~13-16Z).
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER, THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. NE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK TO THE N
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL FURTHER BACK TO THE W BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
SW BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND SSW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING (~00Z FRI), AT WHICH POINT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 15-25 KNOTS. BREEZY SSW TO S WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ027-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
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