134
FXUS63 KGLD 020918
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
318 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN CO AND WALLACE, GREELEY
AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- STRONG NW WINDS (30-40 MPH W/GUSTS TO 55 MPH) WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- BREEZY WNW TO W WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY FOSTER CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S AND 60S, COOLEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA,
AS A 500 MB TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS GIVING US
INCREASING FORCING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AN 850 MB LOW IN
COLORADO PULLS IN MORE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST.
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS EVENT WILL START OFF COMING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 18-21Z. POPS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
PEAKING AROUND 21-06Z THIS EVENING. THE ENTIRE CWA HAS A GREATER
THAN 70% CHANCE AT SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION, AND THERE'S A 50%
CHANCE MOST OF THE CWA RECEIVES 0.1 INCH OF QPF BY THURSDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 34 HAVE A
20% CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING MORE THAN 0.5 INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM! ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 36, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE A FINAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH FROM
THE WEST. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO MIX INTO THE
ONGOING PRECIPITATION AROUND 21Z, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY. THE BIGGEST HAZARD WOULD BE WINDS COMING OUT OF THE
STORMS. MOST LIKELY GUSTS WOULD BE IN THE 35-45 KTS RANGE, WITH
PEAK POTENTIAL OF 55 KTS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING TO THE
EAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE MOST OF THE
CWA WILL BE CLEAR OF RAIN. AS THE PRECIPITATION EXITS, WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE AND GUST UP AROUND 30
KTS ARE EXPECTED.
TOMORROW, WE WARM BACK UP INTO THE 70S AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND GUST UP AROUND 25-35 KTS IN THE WESTERN CWA. WITH
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS, WE ARE WORRIED ABOUT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN PLACE AS CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 50-60% THAT RH
VALUES WILL MEET CRITERIA. ADDITIONALLY, THE PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NEXT 20 HOURS SHOULD HELP SOME, HOW MUCH IS STILL A BIT
UNKNOWN. BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF
THE WATCH AREA IS LIKELY (80%).
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS DOES INTRODUCE A FAIRLY LOW (<20%) CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 34. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS
A 30% CHANCE NORTHWESTERN KANSAS RECEIVES 45+ KTS WINDS AROUND
12Z FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE
DAY, WITH PERSISTENT GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS LIKELY. ONCE AGAIN,
THERE IS CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT THE
RH VALUES ARE RIGHT ON THE LINE. HOWEVER, GFDI VALUES IN EASTERN
COLORADO ARE CLIMB UP TO AROUND 60.
WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST WITH THESE
STRONGER WINDS. BY 21Z 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES WILL BE ABOVE 10 C/KM,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOFTED DUST. CONFIDENCE IN
VISIBILITY BEING REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IN A PLUME OF
BLOWING DUST IS ABOUT 15%. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, WINDS WILL WEAKEN
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY, REPLACING A 500-MB TROUGH AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AS AN
ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS, PRODUCING NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
REGION. SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER-60S ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
LOOKING TO PERSIST. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER-
TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS
MAY IMPLICATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A CONCERN,
WITH WIND GUSTS 25-40 MPH IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO, THE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS THE MOISTURE CONTENT, AS
LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY A 40-50% CHANCE FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO REACH CRITERIA FOR THE HAZARD IN EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO, AND EVEN WORSE CHANCES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WOULD HAVE TO
DROP A FEW MORE POINTS FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN, WHICH COULD HAPPEN IF
SURFACE WINDS HAVE A MORE WESTERLY, DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG
WARNING BEING NEEDED SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS LOW, AROUND 5% OR
LESS.
THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE FULLY ESTABLISHED BY
THE EVENING HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT, AND COULD LAST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS FORECAST TO EJECT
OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE UNITED STATES DURING THIS
PERIOD. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SHORTWAVE
SUNDAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER-60S TO MID-70S.
HOWEVER, AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA
WOULD INTRODUCE COOLER AIR INTO THE INTERIOR UNITED STATES. A COLD
FRONT IS FAVORED AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE, AND IS REPRESENTED IN
THE NBM 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE MAX TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA MONDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID-60S TO MID-70S, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOWER-60S CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. DRY CONDITIONS ALSO LOOK TO CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER-TEENS AND
UPPER-TEENS TO 20S RESPECTIVELY. STILL, CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE DECREASING, AS
MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE 15-20 MPH
RANGE SUNDAY, AND 25-30 MPH RANGE MONDAY. NBM GUIDANCE WOULD
SUPPORT THIS CONCLUSION, AS WIND GUSTS SUNDAY HAVE AT BEST A 45%
CHANCE OF REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA IN EASTERN
COLORADO, IN ADDITION TO 90TH PERCENTILE NBM WIND GUSTS MONDAY
BEING TOO WEAK TO OVERCOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S.
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE A BIT MORE ON TUESDAY AS TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ENTER NORTH AMERICA IN WESTERN CANADA AND THE U.S.
WEST COAST. HOWEVER, A SPLIT FLOW IS FAVORED OVERHEAD THROUGH ABOUT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, WHICH COULD PROVIDE WARMER CONDITIONS
IN THE UPPER-60S TO MID-70S. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HIGH TEMPERATURES
IS STILL HIGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE NBM 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE MAX
TEMPERATURE SPREAD REMAINS AT 10-20 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WOULD MOST LIKELY BE INFLUENCED BY HOW SOON A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW CAN DEVELOP AFTER MONDAY'S COLD FRONT, AND HOW SOON THE
INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN MOVE IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY FROM
THIS PATTERN. PRECIPITATION WOULD MOST LIKELY FALL AS RAIN, THOUGH
WINTRY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. NBM
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS ABOUT A 25% CHANCE OR LESS FOR
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HAS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO INCONSISTENT TIMING OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, WARMER CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED
AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS, WITH NBM GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING UP TO
A 75% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR AS THESE SYSTEMS TRAVERSE
THE FORECAST REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
GLD: LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND, OR SHORTLY AFTER, SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER, THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. N WINDS AT 12-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W AND DECREASE TO ~10
KNOTS LATE THU MORNING (~16-18Z).. THEN BACK TO THE SW-SSW AND
STRENGTHEN TO 15-25 KNOTS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON (~21Z).
BREEZY S TO SSE WINDS WILL PREVAIL PERSIST THROUGH THU EVENING.
MCK: LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE (~13-16Z).
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER, THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. NE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK TO THE N
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL FURTHER BACK TO THE W BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
SW BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND SSW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING (~00Z FRI), AT WHICH POINT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 15-25 KNOTS. BREEZY SSW TO S WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM MDT /9
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ027-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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