965
FXUS63 KGLD 021012
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
412 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN CO AND WALLACE, GREELEY
AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- STRONG NW WINDS (30-40 MPH W/GUSTS TO 55 MPH) WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- BREEZY WNW TO W WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY FOSTER CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN KS AT 06Z THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
ENE-NE TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY-TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ASHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 06Z THIS MORNING WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY-TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA FRI-
FRI NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFT-EVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL KS (TONIGHT) AND EASTERN KS (FRIDAY).
TODAY: MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING CYCLONE WILL ABATE FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS MORNING
(~12-18Z). AT THE SAME TIME, SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE WILL FOSTER A RAPID CLEARING TREND.
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL QUICKLY ENSUE, THIS
AFTERNOON, AS THE MSLP-850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT REORIENTS AND
TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS / CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM 70-80F, WARMEST IN
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES CO AND
WALLACE, GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES KS WHERE CURRENT (00Z AND
06Z 04/02) OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SSW TO S WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH W/GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH AND RH
READINGS WILL BOTTOM-OUT ~15% DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
WHILE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN NEIGHBORING
AREAS, NAMELY YUMA COUNTY, CO AND SHERMAN AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES
IN KS, MINIMUM RH READINGS WILL INCREASE WITH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN EXTENT FROM THE WARNING AREA AND THE ONSET/DURATION OF
BREEZY S-SW WINDS WILL BE LATER/SHORTER WITH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN EXTENT FROM THE WARNING AREA.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING: SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONE TRACKS EASTWARD
OVER/ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG NNW
WINDS IS EXPECTED DURING AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE A FEW HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING (~08-12Z IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ~12-16Z IN
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA) AS THE EASTWARD ADVANCING CYCLONE
PROGRESSES INTO CENTRAL KS. 00Z 04/02 GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ~40-50 KNOT NNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN A
SHALLOW (SURFACE TO ~3,000 FT AGL) MIXED LAYER IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. 00Z 04/02 HRRR AND NAM NEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE RELATIVELY WEAKER, INDICATING ~35-40 KNOT
NNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW. A ROUGH AVERAGE OF THE GFS, ECMWF, HRRR AND
NAM NEST SUPPORTS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS ~30-35 MPH AND GUSTS TO
50-55 MPH. AT WORST, THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR
60-65 MPH GUSTS, MAINLY IN NE AND E PORTIONS OF THE AREA (E.G.
MCCOOK, NORTON, HILL CITY) WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE
STRONGER AND VERTICAL MIXING MAY BE MORE ROBUST, I.E. LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION MORE LIKELY TO OVERLAP WITH DIURNAL HEATING
~12-16Z FRI. FOR REFERENCE, SUNRISE IS ~630 AM MDT (1230Z).
FRI-FRI NIGHT: INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50'S (WEST) TO
MID 60'S (EAST). MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER / ALTOCUMULUS MAY
INFLUENCE DIURNAL HEATING TO SOME EXTENT. NEVERTHELESS, VIGOROUS
MIXING (UP TO ~11,000 FT AGL), AIDED/ENHANCED BY STRONG MID-
LEVEL (700-500 MB) COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS SD DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WILL LEAD TO ROBUST DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND
CONSIDERABLE DRYING / DEEP INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
GUIDANCE INDICATES ~25-35 KNOT WNW TO W MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA (STRONGEST IN THE NORTH)
DURING THE AFTERNOON, SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WINDS SOLIDLY IN THE
25-35 MPH RANGE (POSSIBLY 30-40 MPH RANGE IN SOUTHWEST NE) WITH
MINIMUM RH READINGS ~10-20%, DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY, REPLACING A 500-MB TROUGH AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AS AN
ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS, PRODUCING NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
REGION. SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER-60S ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
LOOKING TO PERSIST. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER-
TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS
MAY IMPLICATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A CONCERN,
WITH WIND GUSTS 25-40 MPH IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO, THE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS THE MOISTURE CONTENT, AS
LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY A 40-50% CHANCE FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO REACH CRITERIA FOR THE HAZARD IN WESTERN PORTIONS
OF CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO, AND EVEN WORSE CHANCES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WOULD HAVE TO DROP
A FEW MORE POINTS FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN, WHICH COULD HAPPEN IF SURFACE WINDS
HAVE A MORE WESTERLY, DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS LOW, AROUND 5% OR LESS.
THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE FULLY ESTABLISHED BY
THE EVENING HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT, AND COULD LAST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS FORECAST TO EJECT
OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE UNITED STATES DURING THIS
PERIOD. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SHORTWAVE
SUNDAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER-60S TO MID-70S.
HOWEVER, AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA
WOULD INTRODUCE COOLER AIR INTO THE INTERIOR UNITED STATES. A COLD
FRONT IS FAVORED AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE, AND IS REPRESENTED IN
THE NBM 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE MAX TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 10-15 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA MONDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID-60S TO MID-70S, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOWER-60S CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. DRY CONDITIONS ALSO LOOK TO CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER-TEENS AND
UPPER-TEENS TO 20S RESPECTIVELY. STILL, CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE DECREASING, AS
MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE 15-20 MPH
RANGE SUNDAY, AND 25-30 MPH RANGE MONDAY. NBM GUIDANCE WOULD
SUPPORT THIS CONCLUSION, AS WIND GUSTS SUNDAY HAVE AT BEST A 45%
CHANCE OF REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA IN EASTERN
COLORADO, IN ADDITION TO 90TH PERCENTILE NBM WIND GUSTS MONDAY
BEING TOO WEAK TO OVERCOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S.
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE A BIT MORE ON TUESDAY AS TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ENTER NORTH AMERICA IN WESTERN CANADA AND THE U.S.
WEST COAST. HOWEVER, A SPLIT FLOW IS FAVORED OVERHEAD THROUGH ABOUT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, WHICH COULD PROVIDE WARMER CONDITIONS
IN THE UPPER-60S TO MID-70S. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HIGH TEMPERATURES
IS STILL HIGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE NBM 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE MAX
TEMPERATURE SPREAD REMAINS AT 10-20 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WOULD MOST LIKELY BE INFLUENCED BY HOW SOON A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW CAN DEVELOP AFTER MONDAY'S COLD FRONT, AND HOW SOON THE
INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN MOVE IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY FROM
THIS PATTERN. PRECIPITATION WOULD MOST LIKELY FALL AS RAIN, THOUGH
WINTRY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. NBM
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS ABOUT A 25% CHANCE OR LESS FOR
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HAS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO INCONSISTENT TIMING OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, WARMER CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED
AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS, WITH NBM GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING UP TO
A 75% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR AS THESE SYSTEMS TRAVERSE
THE FORECAST REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
GLD: LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND, OR SHORTLY AFTER, SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER, THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. N WINDS AT 12-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W AND DECREASE TO ~10
KNOTS LATE THU MORNING (~16-18Z).. THEN BACK TO THE SW-SSW AND
STRENGTHEN TO 15-25 KNOTS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON (~21Z).
BREEZY S TO SSE WINDS WILL PREVAIL PERSIST THROUGH THU EVENING.
MCK: LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE (~13-16Z).
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER, THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. NE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK TO THE N
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL FURTHER BACK TO THE W BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
SW BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND SSW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING (~00Z FRI), AT WHICH POINT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 15-25 KNOTS. BREEZY SSW TO S WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM MDT /9
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ027-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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