424
FXUS63 KGLD 021742
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1142 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES
IN CO AND WALLACE, GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN KS THIS
AFTERNOON.
- STRONG NW WINDS (30-40 MPH W/GUSTS TO 55 MPH) WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
ASSOC/W BREEZY WNW TO W WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
HAVE SOME CONCERNS ON FOG, PERHAPS LOCALLY DENSE REDEVELOPING
BETWEEN 13 AND 15Z AS WINDS BECOME A LITTLE LIGHTER AS WE LOSE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. HAVE ADDED FOG WORDING
BACK INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z. ANY FOG SHOULD SHOULD
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 15Z AS MIXING ENSUES AGAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN KS AT 06Z THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
ENE-NE TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY-TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ASHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT 06Z THIS MORNING WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY-TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA FRI-
FRI NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFT-EVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL KS (TONIGHT) AND EASTERN KS (FRIDAY).
TODAY: MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING CYCLONE WILL ABATE FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS MORNING
(~12-18Z). AT THE SAME TIME, SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE WILL FOSTER A RAPID CLEARING TREND.
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL QUICKLY ENSUE, THIS
AFTERNOON, AS THE MSLP-850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT REORIENTS AND
TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS / CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM 70-80F, WARMEST IN
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES CO AND
WALLACE, GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES KS WHERE CURRENT (00Z AND
06Z 04/02) OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SSW TO S WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH W/GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH AND RH
READINGS WILL BOTTOM-OUT ~15% DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
WHILE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN NEIGHBORING
AREAS, NAMELY YUMA COUNTY, CO AND SHERMAN AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES
IN KS, MINIMUM RH READINGS WILL INCREASE WITH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN EXTENT FROM THE WARNING AREA AND THE ONSET/DURATION OF
BREEZY S-SW WINDS WILL BE LATER/SHORTER WITH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN EXTENT FROM THE WARNING AREA.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING: SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONE TRACKS EASTWARD
OVER/ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG NNW
WINDS IS EXPECTED DURING AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE A FEW HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING (~08-12Z IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ~12-16Z IN
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA) AS THE EASTWARD ADVANCING CYCLONE
PROGRESSES INTO CENTRAL KS. 00Z 04/02 GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ~40-50 KNOT NNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN A
SHALLOW (SURFACE TO ~3,000 FT AGL) MIXED LAYER IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. 00Z 04/02 HRRR AND NAM NEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE RELATIVELY WEAKER, INDICATING ~35-40 KNOT
NNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW. A ROUGH AVERAGE OF THE GFS, ECMWF, HRRR AND
NAM NEST SUPPORTS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS ~30-35 MPH AND GUSTS TO
50-55 MPH. AT WORST, THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR
60-65 MPH GUSTS, MAINLY IN NE AND E PORTIONS OF THE AREA (E.G.
MCCOOK, NORTON, HILL CITY) WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE
STRONGER AND VERTICAL MIXING MAY BE MORE ROBUST, I.E. LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION MORE LIKELY TO OVERLAP WITH DIURNAL HEATING
~12-16Z FRI. FOR REFERENCE, SUNRISE IS ~630 AM MDT (1230Z).
FRI-FRI NIGHT: INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50'S (WEST) TO
MID 60'S (EAST). MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER / ALTOCUMULUS MAY
INFLUENCE DIURNAL HEATING TO SOME EXTENT. NEVERTHELESS, VIGOROUS
MIXING (UP TO ~11,000 FT AGL), AIDED/ENHANCED BY STRONG MID-
LEVEL (700-500 MB) COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS SD DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WILL LEAD TO ROBUST DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND
CONSIDERABLE DRYING / DEEP INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
GUIDANCE INDICATES ~25-35 KNOT WNW TO W MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA (STRONGEST IN THE NORTH)
DURING THE AFTERNOON, SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WINDS SOLIDLY IN THE
25-35 MPH RANGE (POSSIBLY 30-40 MPH RANGE IN SOUTHWEST NE) WITH
MINIMUM RH READINGS ~10-20%, DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY, REPLACING A 500-MB TROUGH AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AS AN
ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS, PRODUCING NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
REGION. SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER-60S ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
LOOKING TO PERSIST. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER-
TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS
MAY IMPLICATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A CONCERN,
WITH WIND GUSTS 25-40 MPH IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO, THE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS THE MOISTURE CONTENT, AS
LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY A 40-50% CHANCE FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO REACH CRITERIA FOR THE HAZARD IN WESTERN PORTIONS
OF CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO, AND EVEN WORSE CHANCES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WOULD HAVE TO
DROP A FEW MORE POINTS FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN, WHICH COULD HAPPEN IF
SURFACE WINDS HAVE A MORE WESTERLY, DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG
WARNING BEING NEEDED SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS LOW, AROUND 5% OR
LESS.
THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE FULLY
ESTABLISHED BY THE EVENING HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT, AND COULD LAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE UNITED
STATES DURING THIS PERIOD. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SHORTWAVE SUNDAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER-60S TO MID-70S. HOWEVER, AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES REGION, A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA WOULD
INTRODUCE COOLER AIR INTO THE INTERIOR UNITED STATES. A COLD
FRONT IS FAVORED AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE, AND IS REPRESENTED
IN THE NBM 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE MAX TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 10-15
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA MONDAY. FORECAST
HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID-60S TO MID-70S,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOWER-60S CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DRY CONDITIONS ALSO LOOK TO CONTINUE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER-TEENS
AND UPPER-TEENS TO 20S RESPECTIVELY. STILL, CONFIDENCE IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
DECREASING, AS MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE
15-20 MPH RANGE SUNDAY, AND 25-30 MPH RANGE MONDAY. NBM GUIDANCE
WOULD SUPPORT THIS CONCLUSION, AS WIND GUSTS SUNDAY HAVE AT
BEST A 45% CHANCE OF REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA IN
EASTERN COLORADO, IN ADDITION TO 90TH PERCENTILE NBM WIND GUSTS
MONDAY BEING TOO WEAK TO OVERCOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
20S.
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE A BIT MORE ON TUESDAY AS TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ENTER NORTH AMERICA IN WESTERN CANADA AND THE
U.S. WEST COAST. HOWEVER, A SPLIT FLOW IS FAVORED OVERHEAD
THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, WHICH COULD PROVIDE
WARMER CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER-60S TO MID-70S. UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HIGH TEMPERATURES IS STILL HIGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS
THE NBM 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE MAX TEMPERATURE SPREAD REMAINS AT
10-20 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD MOST
LIKELY BE INFLUENCED BY HOW SOON A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CAN
DEVELOP AFTER MONDAY'S COLD FRONT, AND HOW SOON THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN MOVE IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY FROM
THIS PATTERN. PRECIPITATION WOULD MOST LIKELY FALL AS RAIN,
THOUGH WINTRY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. NBM GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS ABOUT A 25% CHANCE OR
LESS FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
REGION TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HAS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO INCONSISTENT TIMING OF
THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, WARMER
CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS, WITH NBM
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING UP TO A 75% CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR AS THESE SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE FORECAST
REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KMCK AND KGLD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR. THEY WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTING AROUND 20-30 KTS.
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, LLWS AT 200 FEET AGL FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE
ROARING AROUND 40-50 KTS AT BOTH SITES. A LOW WILL BE MOVING
OVER KMCK AROUND 8-10Z, BUT WINDS WILL STILL BE IN THE 10-20 KTS
RANGE AS WINDS SHIFT, HENCE THE TEMPO. BEHIND THE LOW AND COLD
FRONT, WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE AND GUSTS UP
AROUND 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ027-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...CA
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