185
FXUS63 KGLD 022050
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
250 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES
IN CO AND WALLACE, GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN KS THIS
AFTERNOON.
- STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 35-55 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. PATCHY
BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS GUSTS OF 25-40
MPH WILL PERSIST.
- A RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, WE WARM BACK UP INTO THE 70S AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND GUST UP AROUND 25-35 KTS IN THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
ACTIVE UNTIL 2Z, WHEN RH VALUES WILL REBOUND.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS DOES INTRODUCE A 10-15% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH
OF U.S. 34 BEFORE 18Z. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 20 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT HITS,
WINDS WILL SHIFT FAIRLY QUICKLY AND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
30-45 KTS IS FORECAST. THERE IS A SLIM (<2%) CHANCE BLOWING DUST
GETS KICKED UP OVERNIGHT WITH THE FROPA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S, COOLEST IN THE WESTERN CWA. WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING
AROUND 10-15Z, THIS IS WHEN OCCASIONAL 50 KTS GUSTS HAVE A 50%
CHANCE OF OCCURRING. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN REOCCURRING
50 KTS GUSTS TO WARRANT A HIGH WIND WARNING AT THIS TIME.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO KEEP GUSTING TO AROUND 25-
40 KTS, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. RH VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO LOW TO MID TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 40 IN KANSAS AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN
COLORADO, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, SO A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. IN KANSAS, BASED ON HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES WARM UP AND HOW FAR THE VERY DRY AIR EXPANDS TO THE
NORTHEAST, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, PROMPTING
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. YUMA COUNTY WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS,
WHICH IS PUSHING GFDI VALUES INTO THE LOW 60S, PROMPTING THE WATCH
FOR THIS ZONE.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST WITH THESE
STRONGER WINDS. BY 21Z 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES WILL BE ABOVE 10 C/KM,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOFTED DUST. CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY
BEING REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IN A PLUME OR TWO NEAR SOURCE
REGIONS IS ABOUT 35%. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THERE IS A 10%
CHANCE CLOUD COVER CAPS GUSTS AT UNDER 30 KTS.
SATURDAY, WE KEEP OUR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AS A HIGH
AT 850 MB EXITS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
WORK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST UP
AROUND 20-30 KTS. RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS, BUT
IF TEMPERATURES WARM, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY, REPLACING A 500-MB TROUGH AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AS AN
ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS, PRODUCING NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
REGION. SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER-60S ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
LOOKING TO PERSIST. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER-
TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS
MAY IMPLICATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A CONCERN,
WITH WIND GUSTS 25-40 MPH IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO, THE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS THE MOISTURE CONTENT, AS
LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY A 40-50% CHANCE FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO REACH CRITERIA FOR THE HAZARD IN WESTERN PORTIONS
OF CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO, AND EVEN WORSE CHANCES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WOULD HAVE TO
DROP A FEW MORE POINTS FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN, WHICH COULD HAPPEN IF
SURFACE WINDS HAVE A MORE WESTERLY, DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG
WARNING BEING NEEDED SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS LOW, AROUND 5% OR
LESS.
THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE FULLY
ESTABLISHED BY THE EVENING HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT, AND COULD LAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE UNITED
STATES DURING THIS PERIOD. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SHORTWAVE SUNDAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER-60S TO MID-70S. HOWEVER, AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES REGION, A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA WOULD
INTRODUCE COOLER AIR INTO THE INTERIOR UNITED STATES. A COLD
FRONT IS FAVORED AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE, AND IS REPRESENTED
IN THE NBM 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE MAX TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 10-15
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA MONDAY. FORECAST
HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID-60S TO MID-70S,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOWER-60S CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DRY CONDITIONS ALSO LOOK TO CONTINUE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER-TEENS
AND UPPER-TEENS TO 20S RESPECTIVELY. STILL, CONFIDENCE IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
DECREASING, AS MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE
15-20 MPH RANGE SUNDAY, AND 25-30 MPH RANGE MONDAY. NBM GUIDANCE
WOULD SUPPORT THIS CONCLUSION, AS WIND GUSTS SUNDAY HAVE AT
BEST A 45% CHANCE OF REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA IN
EASTERN COLORADO, IN ADDITION TO 90TH PERCENTILE NBM WIND GUSTS
MONDAY BEING TOO WEAK TO OVERCOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
20S.
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE A BIT MORE ON TUESDAY AS TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ENTER NORTH AMERICA IN WESTERN CANADA AND THE
U.S. WEST COAST. HOWEVER, A SPLIT FLOW IS FAVORED OVERHEAD
THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, WHICH COULD PROVIDE
WARMER CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER-60S TO MID-70S. UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HIGH TEMPERATURES IS STILL HIGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS
THE NBM 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE MAX TEMPERATURE SPREAD REMAINS AT
10-20 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD MOST
LIKELY BE INFLUENCED BY HOW SOON A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CAN
DEVELOP AFTER MONDAY'S COLD FRONT, AND HOW SOON THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN MOVE IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY FROM
THIS PATTERN. PRECIPITATION WOULD MOST LIKELY FALL AS RAIN,
THOUGH WINTRY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. NBM GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS ABOUT A 25% CHANCE OR
LESS FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
REGION TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HAS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO INCONSISTENT TIMING OF
THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, WARMER
CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS, WITH NBM
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING UP TO A 75% CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR AS THESE SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE FORECAST
REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KMCK AND KGLD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR. THEY WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTING AROUND 20-30 KTS.
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, LLWS AT 200 FEET AGL FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE
ROARING AROUND 40-50 KTS AT BOTH SITES. A LOW WILL BE MOVING
OVER KMCK AROUND 8-10Z, BUT WINDS WILL STILL BE IN THE 10-20 KTS
RANGE AS WINDS SHIFT, HENCE THE TEMPO. BEHIND THE LOW AND COLD
FRONT, WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE AND GUSTS UP
AROUND 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ013>015.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ027-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 6 PM MDT /7 PM
CDT/ FRIDAY FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ252.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...CA
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