609
FXUS63 KGLD 022052
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
252 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES
IN CO AND WALLACE, GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN KS THIS
AFTERNOON.
- STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 35-55 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. PATCHY
BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS GUSTS OF 25-40
MPH WILL PERSIST.
- A RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, WE WARM BACK UP INTO THE 70S AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND GUST UP AROUND 25-35 KTS IN THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
ACTIVE UNTIL 2Z, WHEN RH VALUES WILL REBOUND.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS DOES INTRODUCE A 10-15% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH
OF U.S. 34 BEFORE 18Z. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 20 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT HITS,
WINDS WILL SHIFT FAIRLY QUICKLY AND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
30-45 KTS IS FORECAST. THERE IS A SLIM (<2%) CHANCE BLOWING DUST
GETS KICKED UP OVERNIGHT WITH THE FROPA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S, COOLEST IN THE WESTERN CWA. WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING
AROUND 10-15Z, THIS IS WHEN OCCASIONAL 50 KTS GUSTS HAVE A 50%
CHANCE OF OCCURRING. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN REOCCURRING
50 KTS GUSTS TO WARRANT A HIGH WIND WARNING AT THIS TIME.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO KEEP GUSTING TO AROUND 25-
40 KTS, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. RH VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO LOW TO MID TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 40 IN KANSAS AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN
COLORADO, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, SO A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. IN KANSAS, BASED ON HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES WARM UP AND HOW FAR THE VERY DRY AIR EXPANDS TO THE
NORTHEAST, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, PROMPTING
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. YUMA COUNTY WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS,
WHICH IS PUSHING GFDI VALUES INTO THE LOW 60S, PROMPTING THE WATCH
FOR THIS ZONE.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST WITH THESE
STRONGER WINDS. BY 21Z 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES WILL BE ABOVE 10 C/KM,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOFTED DUST. CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY
BEING REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IN A PLUME OR TWO NEAR SOURCE
REGIONS IS ABOUT 35%. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THERE IS A 10%
CHANCE CLOUD COVER CAPS GUSTS AT UNDER 30 KTS.
SATURDAY, WE KEEP OUR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AS A HIGH
AT 850 MB EXITS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
WORK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST UP
AROUND 20-30 KTS. RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS, BUT
IF TEMPERATURES WARM, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
SUNDAY, THERE IS A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS PLACING US IN
A PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE 70S FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). LOWS ARE
FORECAST IN THE 30S TO 40S. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S, SO
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR ON MONDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TRAVERSING
TOWARDS OUR REGION. WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE
FOR THE NORTHERN CWA. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
TO 30S. OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WE SEE AN UPTICK IN
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) DUE TO A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. POPS RANGE
FROM 10-20% WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE BASED ON FORECAST
TEMPERATURES.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TUESDAY AS WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
KEEP POPS LOW AT AROUND 20% FOR THE REGION. IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS,
RAIN IS MOST LIKELY GIVEN FORECAST TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE 70S ACROSS THE CWA.
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP TO <5%
AS WE ARE FORECAST TO BE IN A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ADVECT WARM AIR INTO OUR REGION AND FURTHER WARM
CONDITIONS. NBM IS TRENDING WARMER THAN MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 80S, WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY 20
DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. RH VALUES ARE FORECAST
IN THE UPPER TEENS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. WARMER
TEMPERATURES MAY PROMOTE FURTHER DRYING AND POTENTIALLY DROP RH
VALUES TO BELOW 15%, WHICH WOULD MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX (GFDI) RANGE FROM 20 TO 40 FOR THE CWA,
SUPPORTING RAPID FIRE SPREAD AND GROWTH IF ANY FIRES WERE TO START.
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN
RETURNING THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS DUE TO THIS BEING
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CURRENT MODEL VARIANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KMCK AND KGLD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR. THEY WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTING AROUND 20-30 KTS.
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, LLWS AT 200 FEET AGL FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE
ROARING AROUND 40-50 KTS AT BOTH SITES. A LOW WILL BE MOVING
OVER KMCK AROUND 8-10Z, BUT WINDS WILL STILL BE IN THE 10-20 KTS
RANGE AS WINDS SHIFT, HENCE THE TEMPO. BEHIND THE LOW AND COLD
FRONT, WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE AND GUSTS UP
AROUND 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ013>015.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ027-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 6 PM MDT /7 PM
CDT/ FRIDAY FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ252.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...CA
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