315
FXUS63 KGLD 030552
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1152 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY FRI MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30-40 MPH AND GUSTS TO
50-60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE A FEW HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO ~10 AM MDT/11 AM CDT.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA
ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, WE WARM BACK UP INTO THE 70S AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND GUST UP AROUND 25-35 KTS IN THE WESTERN CWA. WITH
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS. THE RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS ACTIVE UNTIL 2Z, WHEN RH VALUES WILL REBOUND.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS DOES INTRODUCE A 10-15% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. 34 BEFORE 18Z. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT HITS, WINDS WILL SHIFT FAIRLY QUICKLY AND GUSTS
FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30-45 KTS IS FORECAST. THERE IS A SLIM
(<2%) CHANCE BLOWING DUST GETS KICKED UP OVERNIGHT WITH THE
FROPA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 30S AND 40S, COOLEST IN
THE WESTERN CWA. WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING AROUND 10-15Z, THIS IS
WHEN OCCASIONAL 50 KTS GUSTS HAVE A 50% CHANCE OF OCCURRING.
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN REOCCURRING 50 KTS GUSTS TO
WARRANT A HIGH WIND WARNING AT THIS TIME.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO KEEP GUSTING TO
AROUND 25- 40 KTS, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA. RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO LOW TO MID TEENS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 40 IN KANSAS AND
SOUTH OF I-70 IN COLORADO, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. IN KANSAS,
BASED ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES WARM UP AND HOW FAR THE VERY DRY
AIR EXPANDS TO THE NORTHEAST, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE, PROMPTING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. YUMA COUNTY WILL
SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS, WHICH IS PUSHING GFDI VALUES INTO THE
LOW 60S, PROMPTING THE WATCH FOR THIS ZONE.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST WITH
THESE STRONGER WINDS. BY 21Z 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES WILL BE ABOVE 10
C/KM, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOFTED DUST. CONFIDENCE IN
VISIBILITY BEING REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IN A PLUME OR TWO
NEAR SOURCE REGIONS IS ABOUT 35%. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
THERE IS A 10% CHANCE CLOUD COVER CAPS GUSTS AT UNDER 30 KTS.
SATURDAY, WE KEEP OUR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AS A
HIGH AT 850 MB EXITS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL WORK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AS NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUST UP AROUND 20-30 KTS. RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
UPPER TEENS, BUT IF TEMPERATURES WARM, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY RETURN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
SUNDAY, THERE IS A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS PLACING
US IN A PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 70S FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
(CWA). LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE 30S TO 40S. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S, SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT A
CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR ON MONDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE
TRAVERSING TOWARDS OUR REGION. WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN CWA. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO 30S. OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WE
SEE AN UPTICK IN PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) DUE TO A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION. POPS RANGE FROM 10-20% WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TUESDAY AS WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL KEEP POPS LOW AT AROUND 20% FOR THE REGION. IF
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, RAIN IS MOST LIKELY GIVEN FORECAST
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 70S ACROSS
THE CWA.
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP TO
<5% AS WE ARE FORECAST TO BE IN A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT WARM AIR INTO OUR REGION AND FURTHER
WARM CONDITIONS. NBM IS TRENDING WARMER THAN MODEL RUNS
YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 80S, WHICH IS
APPROXIMATELY 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE UPPER TEENS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY PROMOTE FURTHER DRYING AND
POTENTIALLY DROP RH VALUES TO BELOW 15%, WHICH WOULD MEET RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX (GFDI) RANGE
FROM 20 TO 40 FOR THE CWA, SUPPORTING RAPID FIRE SPREAD AND
GROWTH IF ANY FIRES WERE TO START.
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN
RETURNING THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS DUE TO THIS
BEING THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CURRENT MODEL
VARIANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
GLD: A BRIEF PERIOD OF BORDERLINE VFR-MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE (~11-14Z). OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS AT 10-20 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW BY ~09Z. NW TO NNW WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY STRENGTHEN TO
25-35 KNOTS ~10-11Z, WITH GUSTS TO 40-50 KNOTS POSSIBLE AN HOUR
OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE, MAINLY ~11-14Z. 25-35 KNOT NW
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, DECREASING TO 20-30 KNOTS AND BACKING TO THE WNW DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MCK: A BRIEF PERIOD OF BORDERLINE VFR-MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE (~12-15Z). OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. E TO SE WINDS AT 10-20 KNOTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE ~10Z AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE NNW AND STRENGTHEN TO
25-35 KNOTS AROUND, OR SHORTLY BEFORE, SUNRISE (~12Z) WITH GUSTS
TO 40-50 KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, MAINLY
~12-15Z. 25-35 KNOT NW WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING, DECREASING TO ~20-30 KNOTS AND BACKING
TO THE WNW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM
CDT/ FRIDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM
CDT/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
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