783
FXUS63 KGLD 030751
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
151 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS ~25-40 MPH AND GUSTS TO
45-55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE A FEW HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO ~10 AM MDT/11 AM CDT.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
OVERVIEW (TODAY-TONIGHT): A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN
VICINITY OF NORTHWEST WYOMING AT 07Z THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
TRACK E ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY-TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED LEE
CYCLONE (~998 MB) OVER EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS WILL WEAKEN AS
IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KS (THIS MORNING) AND EASTERN
KS (THIS AFTERNOON).
THIS MORNING: S TO SE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND THEN ABRUPTLY SHIFT
TO THE NNW DURING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE A FEW HOURS ON EITHER
SIDE OF SUNRISE, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KS AND A COLDER AIRMASS SURGES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA. A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG
NNW WINDS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN ~09-13Z (WEST) TO ~12-16Z (EAST),
WHEN 35-45 KNOT NNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN A
SHALLOW MIXED LAYER IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND SUSTAINED WINDS ~25-40 MPH AND GUSTS ~45-55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED.
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT: EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50'S (WEST) TO
MID 60'S (EAST). MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER / ALTOCUMULUS MAY
INFLUENCE DIURNAL HEATING TO SOME EXTENT. VIGOROUS VERTICAL
MIXING (UP TO ~11,000 FT AGL) AIDED/ENHANCED BY STRONG MID-
LEVEL (700-500 MB) COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS SD WILL LEAD TO DEEP
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND EFFICIENT DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON, WHEN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE NW TO WNW MID-LEVEL FLOW ~25-35 KNOTS (NORTH)
TO ~20-30 KNOTS (SOUTH). EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS ~25-35 MPH AND
MINIMUM RH ~15% (NORTH) TO ~20-30 MPH AND 10-15% (SOUTH). IN
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20'S TO LOWER 30'S.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.. ASSOC/W SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW.. WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SAT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60'S
AND MINIMUM RH READINGS RANGING FROM 15-20% IN EASTERN CO AND
ADJACENT KS-NE BORDER COUNTIES TO 20-25% ELSEWHERE. SOMEWHAT
BREEZY (~15-25 MPH) NW WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON,
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SUN MORNING LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
SUNDAY, THERE IS A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS PLACING
US IN A PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 70S FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
(CWA). LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE 30S TO 40S. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S, SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT A
CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR ON MONDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE
TRAVERSING TOWARDS OUR REGION. WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN CWA. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO 30S. OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WE
SEE AN UPTICK IN PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) DUE TO A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION. POPS RANGE FROM 10-20% WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TUESDAY AS WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL KEEP POPS LOW AT AROUND 20% FOR THE REGION. IF
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, RAIN IS MOST LIKELY GIVEN FORECAST
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 70S ACROSS
THE CWA.
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP TO
<5% AS WE ARE FORECAST TO BE IN A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT WARM AIR INTO OUR REGION AND FURTHER
WARM CONDITIONS. NBM IS TRENDING WARMER THAN MODEL RUNS
YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 80S, WHICH IS
APPROXIMATELY 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE UPPER TEENS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY PROMOTE FURTHER DRYING AND
POTENTIALLY DROP RH VALUES TO BELOW 15%, WHICH WOULD MEET RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX (GFDI) RANGE
FROM 20 TO 40 FOR THE CWA, SUPPORTING RAPID FIRE SPREAD AND
GROWTH IF ANY FIRES WERE TO START.
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN
RETURNING THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS DUE TO THIS
BEING THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CURRENT MODEL
VARIANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
GLD: A BRIEF PERIOD OF BORDERLINE VFR-MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE (~11-14Z). OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS AT 10-20 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW BY ~09Z. NW TO NNW WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY STRENGTHEN TO
25-35 KNOTS ~10-11Z, WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KNOTS POSSIBLE AN HOUR
OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE, MAINLY ~11-14Z. 25-35 KNOT NW
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, DECREASING TO 20-30 KNOTS AND BACKING TO THE WNW DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MCK: A BRIEF PERIOD OF BORDERLINE VFR-MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE (~12-15Z). OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. E TO SE WINDS AT 10-20 KNOTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE ~10Z AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE NNW AND STRENGTHEN TO
25-35 KNOTS AROUND, OR SHORTLY BEFORE, SUNRISE (~12Z) WITH GUSTS
TO 40-45 KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, MAINLY
~12-15Z. 25-35 KNOT NW WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING, DECREASING TO ~20-30 KNOTS AND BACKING
TO THE WNW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7
PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-
027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7
PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
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