735
FXUS63 KGLD 030856
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
256 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS ~25-40 MPH AND GUSTS TO
45-55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE A FEW HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO ~10 AM MDT/11 AM CDT.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
OVERVIEW (TODAY-TONIGHT): A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN
VICINITY OF NORTHWEST WYOMING AT 07Z THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
TRACK E ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY-TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED LEE
CYCLONE (~998 MB) OVER EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS WILL WEAKEN AS
IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KS (THIS MORNING) AND EASTERN
KS (THIS AFTERNOON).
THIS MORNING: S TO SE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND THEN ABRUPTLY SHIFT
TO THE NNW DURING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE A FEW HOURS ON EITHER
SIDE OF SUNRISE, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KS AND A COLDER AIRMASS SURGES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA. A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG
NNW WINDS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN ~09-13Z (WEST) TO ~12-16Z (EAST),
WHEN 35-45 KNOT NNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN A
SHALLOW MIXED LAYER IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND SUSTAINED WINDS ~25-40 MPH AND GUSTS ~45-55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED.
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT: EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50'S (WEST) TO
MID 60'S (EAST). MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER / ALTOCUMULUS MAY
INFLUENCE DIURNAL HEATING TO SOME EXTENT. VIGOROUS VERTICAL
MIXING (UP TO ~11,000 FT AGL) AIDED/ENHANCED BY STRONG MID-
LEVEL (700-500 MB) COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS SD WILL LEAD TO DEEP
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND EFFICIENT DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON, WHEN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE NW TO WNW MID-LEVEL FLOW ~25-35 KNOTS (NORTH)
TO ~20-30 KNOTS (SOUTH). EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS ~25-35 MPH AND
MINIMUM RH ~15% (NORTH) TO ~20-30 MPH AND 10-15% (SOUTH). IN
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20'S TO LOWER 30'S.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.. ASSOC/W SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW.. WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SAT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60'S
AND MINIMUM RH READINGS RANGING FROM 15-20% IN EASTERN CO AND
ADJACENT KS-NE BORDER COUNTIES TO 20-25% ELSEWHERE. SOMEWHAT
BREEZY (~15-25 MPH) NW WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON,
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SUN MORNING LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
NORTHWESTERLY 500-MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS EMBEDDED FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER-60S TO MID-70S
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID
TO UPPER-TEENS. EVEN SO, CONFIDENCE IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT
ON SUNDAY IS DECREASING, AS LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS THAN A 15%
CHANCE FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO MEET CRITERIA FOR THE HAZARD
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REGION. WINDS ARE ALSO LACKING,
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING GUSTS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE, AND
NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AROUND A 30% CHANCE OR LESS FOR GUSTS TO
MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN A
RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS LESS THAN 5%.
THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UNITED STATES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE HIGH IS FAVORED TO
TRAVERSE THE FORECAST REGION DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS
MONDAY. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, AS THE NBM
75TH-25TH PERCENTILE MAX TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE 10-15
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND WEST-
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER-50S TO
LOWER-70S, THOUGH TEMPERATURES 5 DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW THE
CURRENT FORECAST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY IS ALSO INCREASING THE
FORECASTED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, NOW INTO THE MID-20S TO
LOWER-30S ACROSS THE CWA. AS SUCH, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK LESS PROBABLE. WHILE NBM 90TH
PERCENTILE WIND GUSTS ARE IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE
AREA, THEY ARE NOT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE ELEVATED RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED MONDAY
IS ALSO LESS THAN 5%.
AS THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE
EASTWARD MONDAY EVENING, A 500-MB SPLIT FLOW LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION (10-
20%) OVERNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE REGION. FORECASTED LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT
MAY ALLOW FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION, THOUGH WOULD LIKELY TRANSITION
INTO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE TUESDAY MORNING. A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW MAY ALLOW WARMER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH THE NBM 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE MAX TEMPERATURE SPREAD CONTINUES
TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AT 10-20 DEGREES. THIS COULD
BE DUE TO ONGOING PRECIPITATION, OR UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN THE
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP. FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER-
60S TO LOWER-70S, THOUGH COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW THE
CURRENT FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE A BIT MORE BY TUESDAY EVENING,
SPECIFICALLY REGARDING HOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL EVOLVE. THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS TROUGH IS RELATIVELY BIMODAL, WHERE THE FIRST SOLUTION SHOWS
THE TROUGH PARTIALLY COMBINING WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST UNITED STATES, AND THE SECOND SOLUTION SHOWS THE WAVE
CONTINUING AS ITS OWN INDEPENDENT SYSTEM. EITHER WAY, WARMER
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORED WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS FORECASTED IN
THE UPPER-70S TO LOWER-80S. HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF A
COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BASED ON WHICH OF THESE TWO
SCENARIOS OCCUR. THE FIRST SCENARIO LOOKS TO HAVE A STRONGER AND
FASTER COLD FRONT, WHEREAS THE SECOND SOLUTION EVOLVES SLOWER AND
WEAKER. AS A RESULT, NBM 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE MAX TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES ARE 30-40 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR THE FIRST SOLUTION,
AS FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER-50S TO UPPER-60S
ACROSS THE CWA INSTEAD OF THE 80S. ADDITIONALLY, ONLY ABOUT 10-20%
OF LREF SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE SECOND SCENARIO. COOLER
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO CONTINUE FRIDAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID-
50S TO LOWER-60S. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO BEGINS TO FAVOR BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH, THE FORECAST REGION MAY
EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
GLD: A BRIEF PERIOD OF BORDERLINE VFR-MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE (~11-14Z). OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS AT 10-20 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW BY ~09Z. NW TO NNW WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY STRENGTHEN TO
25-35 KNOTS ~10-11Z, WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KNOTS POSSIBLE AN HOUR
OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE, MAINLY ~11-14Z. 25-35 KNOT NW
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, DECREASING TO 20-30 KNOTS AND BACKING TO THE WNW DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MCK: A BRIEF PERIOD OF BORDERLINE VFR-MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE (~12-15Z). OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. E TO SE WINDS AT 10-20 KNOTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE ~10Z AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE NNW AND STRENGTHEN TO
25-35 KNOTS AROUND, OR SHORTLY BEFORE, SUNRISE (~12Z) WITH GUSTS
TO 40-45 KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, MAINLY
~12-15Z. 25-35 KNOT NW WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING, DECREASING TO ~20-30 KNOTS AND BACKING
TO THE WNW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7
PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-
027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7
PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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