503
FXUS63 KGLD 031848
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1248 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTS UP AROUND 25-40 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY BLOWING DUST NEAR OPEN
FIELDS IS LIKELY WHEN WINDS GUST ABOVE 35 MPH.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO KEEP GUSTING TO AROUND 25-
40 KTS, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. RH VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG
AND SOUTH OF U.S. 40 IN KANSAS AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN COLORADO,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS RH VALUES DROP INTO
THE LOW TEENS. NORTH OF THIS AREA, RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE MID TEENS, BASED ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES WARM UP AND HOW
FAR THE VERY DRY AIR EXPANDS TO THE NORTHEAST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. YUMA COUNTY WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS,
WHICH IS PUSHING GFDI VALUES INTO THE LOW 60S. WITH THIS IN MIND, A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PATCHY BLOWING DUST WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS IS
EXPECTED. BY 21Z 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES WILL BE ABOVE 10 C/KM,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOFTED DUST. CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY
BEING REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IN A PLUME OR TWO NEAR SOURCE
REGIONS IS ABOUT 50%.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN, DOWN TO AROUND 15-20
KTS BY 12Z. ON THE BACK END OF THE 500 MB LOW, THERE MAY ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCURS ALONG AND NORTH OF
U.S. 34. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY 9Z, BEFORE TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
SATURDAY, WE KEEP OUR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AS A HIGH
AT 850 MB EXITS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
WORK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST UP
AROUND 20-30 KTS. RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS, BUT
IF TEMPERATURES WARM, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN.
WE COULD SEE SOME STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WHICH MAY LIMIT
TEMPERATURES AND KEEP DEW POINTS AND RH VALUES FAIRLY HIGH.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW 20S AS WINDS
BECOME CALM AND THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT, ANY BUDDING VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED
FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO WARM INTO THE LOW 70S AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS. THANKFULLY, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS, LIMITING THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER, COOLING INTO THE 30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
NORTHWESTERLY 500-MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW IN CENTRAL CANADA. THIS EMBEDDED FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
DOWNSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE
UPPER-60S TO MID-70S ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER-TEENS. EVEN SO,
CONFIDENCE IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT ON SUNDAY IS
DECREASING, AS LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS THAN A 15% CHANCE FOR
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO MEET CRITERIA FOR THE HAZARD ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REGION. WINDS ARE ALSO LACKING, WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING GUSTS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE, AND
NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AROUND A 30% CHANCE OR LESS FOR GUSTS TO
MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE
IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS LESS
THAN 5%.
THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UNITED
STATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SURFACE HIGH IS FAVORED TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST REGION DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, AS THE NBM 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE MAX
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND WEST- CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOWER-70S, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES 5 DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY IS ALSO INCREASING THE FORECASTED
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, NOW INTO THE MID-20S TO LOWER-30S ACROSS
THE CWA. AS SUCH, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
LOOK LESS PROBABLE. WHILE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE WIND GUSTS ARE IN
THE 30-45 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE AREA, THEY ARE NOT ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. CONFIDENCE IN A RED
FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED MONDAY IS ALSO LESS THAN 5%.
AS THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY EVENING, A 500-MB SPLIT FLOW LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (10- 20%) OVERNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. FORECASTED LOWS
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH WOULD LIKELY TRANSITION INTO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE TUESDAY MORNING. A SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW MAY ALLOW WARMER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH THE NBM 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE MAX TEMPERATURE SPREAD
CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AT 10-20
DEGREES. THIS COULD BE DUE TO ONGOING PRECIPITATION, OR
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN THE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER- 60S TO LOWER-70S, THOUGH
COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE A BIT MORE BY TUESDAY EVENING,
SPECIFICALLY REGARDING HOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL EVOLVE. THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH IS RELATIVELY BIMODAL, WHERE THE FIRST
SOLUTION SHOWS THE TROUGH PARTIALLY COMBINING WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST UNITED STATES, AND THE SECOND
SOLUTION SHOWS THE WAVE CONTINUING AS ITS OWN INDEPENDENT
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY, WARMER CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORED
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS FORECASTED IN THE UPPER-70S TO LOWER-80S.
HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IMPACTED BASED ON WHICH OF THESE TWO SCENARIOS OCCUR. THE FIRST
SCENARIO LOOKS TO HAVE A STRONGER AND FASTER COLD FRONT, WHEREAS
THE SECOND SOLUTION EVOLVES SLOWER AND WEAKER. AS A RESULT, NBM
75TH-25TH PERCENTILE MAX TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE 30-40
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR THE FIRST SOLUTION, AS FORECAST
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER-50S TO UPPER-60S ACROSS
THE CWA INSTEAD OF THE 80S. ADDITIONALLY, ONLY ABOUT 10-20% OF
LREF SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE SECOND SCENARIO. COOLER
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO CONTINUE FRIDAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID- 50S TO LOWER-60S. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO BEGINS TO FAVOR
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH, THE FORECAST
REGION MAY EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY, GUSTING AROUND 30
KTS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACTS AT KGLD OR KMCK ARE LESS THAN 10%. WORST
CASE, BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES OCCUR IN THE BLOWING DUST BETWEEN
18-0Z.
KGLD MAY SEE SOME LLWS AROUND 10-15Z AT 400-600 FEET AGL FROM
THE NORTHWEST AT 40-50 KTS. OTHERWISE, WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP TOMORROW MORNING. KMCK MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN 6-9Z, COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...CA
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