747
FXUS63 KGLD 032050
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
250 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTS UP AROUND 25-40 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY BLOWING DUST NEAR OPEN
FIELDS IS LIKELY WHEN WINDS GUST ABOVE 35 MPH.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO KEEP GUSTING TO AROUND 25-
40 KTS, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. RH VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG
AND SOUTH OF U.S. 40 IN KANSAS AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN COLORADO,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS RH VALUES DROP INTO
THE LOW TEENS. NORTH OF THIS AREA, RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE MID TEENS, BASED ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES WARM UP AND HOW
FAR THE VERY DRY AIR EXPANDS TO THE NORTHEAST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. YUMA COUNTY WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS,
WHICH IS PUSHING GFDI VALUES INTO THE LOW 60S. WITH THIS IN MIND, A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PATCHY BLOWING DUST WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS IS
EXPECTED. BY 21Z 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES WILL BE ABOVE 10 C/KM,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOFTED DUST. CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY
BEING REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IN A PLUME OR TWO NEAR SOURCE
REGIONS IS ABOUT 50%.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN, DOWN TO AROUND 15-20
KTS BY 12Z. ON THE BACK END OF THE 500 MB LOW, THERE MAY ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCURS ALONG AND NORTH OF
U.S. 34. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY 9Z, BEFORE TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
SATURDAY, WE KEEP OUR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AS A HIGH
AT 850 MB EXITS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
WORK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST UP
AROUND 20-30 KTS. RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS, BUT
IF TEMPERATURES WARM, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN.
WE COULD SEE SOME STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WHICH MAY LIMIT
TEMPERATURES AND KEEP DEW POINTS AND RH VALUES FAIRLY HIGH.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW 20S AS WINDS
BECOME CALM AND THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT, ANY BUDDING VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED
FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO WARM INTO THE LOW 70S AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS. THANKFULLY, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS, LIMITING THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER, COOLING INTO THE 30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
MONDAY, THERE IS A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS PLACES US IN A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE 60S TO 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE. GREELEY
AND WICHITA COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES FORECAST IN
THE HIGH TEENS AND SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. RH
VALUES FOR THE REST OF THE CWA ARE FORECAST IN THE 20S TO 30S, SO
FIRE WEATHER WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.
WE START TO SEE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT WEST OF THE
REGION. AS IT PROPOGATE EAST, A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL
TRAVERSE THROUGH OUR REGION INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) RANGE FROM 15-35% INCREASING
FROM EAST TO WEST. RAIN IS THE EXPECTED PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE
BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES, BUT AREAS THAT DROP BELOW FREEZING
COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX. BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING, POPS FURTHER
INCREASE FROM 30-50% FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCES DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY
ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FORECAST THE
CENTER OF THE LOW AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL CANADA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS
NEBRASKA. MODELS ARE ALSO DIFFERING ON THE JET STREAM POSITION. THE
GFS HAS THE JET FURTHER SOUTH, RESULTING IN THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JET MERGING, WHICH THE ECMWF KEEPS THE POLAR JET FURTHER
NORTH. WHERE THE JET STREAM AND LOW PRESSURE END UP SETTING UP, WILL
DETERMINE OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE CERTAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE HIGH 70S TO 80S. NBM 75-25TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
HAVE A SPREAD AROUND 5 DEGREES F. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
RETURNS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS DUE
TO THIS BEING THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SIGNIFICANT MODEL
VARIANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY, GUSTING AROUND 30
KTS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACTS AT KGLD OR KMCK ARE LESS THAN 10%. WORST
CASE, BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES OCCUR IN THE BLOWING DUST BETWEEN
18-0Z.
KGLD MAY SEE SOME LLWS AROUND 10-15Z AT 400-600 FEET AGL FROM
THE NORTHWEST AT 40-50 KTS. OTHERWISE, WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP TOMORROW MORNING. KMCK MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN 6-9Z, COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...CA
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