530
FXUS63 KGLD 040424
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1024 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY NW WINDS W/GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON SATURDAY.
- LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO KEEP GUSTING TO
AROUND 25- 40 KTS, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA. RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 40 IN KANSAS AND SOUTH
OF I-70 IN COLORADO, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS. NORTH OF THIS
AREA, RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS, BASED
ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES WARM UP AND HOW FAR THE VERY DRY AIR
EXPANDS TO THE NORTHEAST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. YUMA COUNTY WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS, WHICH IS
PUSHING GFDI VALUES INTO THE LOW 60S. WITH THIS IN MIND, A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PATCHY BLOWING DUST WITH THESE STRONGER
WINDS IS EXPECTED. BY 21Z 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES WILL BE ABOVE 10
C/KM, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOFTED DUST. CONFIDENCE IN
VISIBILITY BEING REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IN A PLUME OR TWO
NEAR SOURCE REGIONS IS ABOUT 50%.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN, DOWN TO AROUND
15-20 KTS BY 12Z. ON THE BACK END OF THE 500 MB LOW, THERE MAY
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCURS ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. 34. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY 9Z, BEFORE
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
SATURDAY, WE KEEP OUR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AS A
HIGH AT 850 MB EXITS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL WORK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AS NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUST UP AROUND 20-30 KTS. RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
UPPER TEENS, BUT IF TEMPERATURES WARM, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY RETURN. WE COULD SEE SOME STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, WHICH MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES AND KEEP DEW POINTS AND RH
VALUES FAIRLY HIGH.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW 20S
AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT, ANY BUDDING VEGETATION
MAY BE DAMAGED FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO WARM INTO THE LOW 70S AS RH VALUES DROP INTO
THE MID TEENS. THANKFULLY, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS,
LIMITING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, COOLING INTO THE 30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
MONDAY, THERE IS A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS PLACES US IN A
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 60S TO 70S AND LOWS IN THE
30S. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) WILL
BE ON THE WARMER SIDE. GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES COULD SEE
SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES FORECAST IN THE HIGH TEENS AND
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. RH VALUES FOR THE
REST OF THE CWA ARE FORECAST IN THE 20S TO 30S, SO FIRE WEATHER
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.
WE START TO SEE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT WEST OF
THE REGION. AS IT PROPOGATE EAST, A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH OUR REGION INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) RANGE FROM
15-35% INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST. RAIN IS THE EXPECTED
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES, BUT
AREAS THAT DROP BELOW FREEZING COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX. BEGINNING
TUESDAY MORNING, POPS FURTHER INCREASE FROM 30-50% FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCES DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS FORECAST THE CENTER OF THE LOW AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL
CANADA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS NEBRASKA. MODELS ARE ALSO DIFFERING
ON THE JET STREAM POSITION. THE GFS HAS THE JET FURTHER SOUTH,
RESULTING IN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET MERGING, WHICH THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE POLAR JET FURTHER NORTH. WHERE THE JET STREAM
AND LOW PRESSURE END UP SETTING UP, WILL DETERMINE OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE CERTAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE HIGH 70S TO 80S. NBM 75-25TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY HAVE A SPREAD AROUND 5 DEGREES F. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURNS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST SPECIFICS DUE TO THIS BEING THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND SIGNIFICANT MODEL VARIANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1015 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. 10-15
KNOT NW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS, AT TIMES, OVERNIGHT. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
(~14-16Z) AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
DECREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO SUNSET (~23Z).
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BECOME EASTERLY OR VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET (~01Z SUN) AND REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY
(~15-25 KNOT) NW WINDS MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
NIGHT, EVENTUALLY DECREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS ON
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE (~12Z SAT). NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 KNOTS W/GUSTS TO ~35 KNOTS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
(~14-16Z) AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY,
DECREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO SUNSET (~23Z).
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET (~01Z SUN) AND REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
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